USDINR opened at 70.89 on Friday and the pair traded in the 70.51-70.93 range. Spot USDINR closed at 70.55 y’day, loss of 33 ps for USD as against prior close of 70.88. RBI reference rate was fixed at 70.90 on Wednesday. Oct USD/INR closed at 70.79, loss of 35 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 71.14. Oct Euro/INR closed at 77.61, GBP/INR at 87.20 and Yen/INR at 65.62.
Rupee gained on reports that RBI is likely to increase FPI limit in investment in debt markets.
FII’S have nett sold Rs 3855 Cr of Indian Equities in Sep . FII’S have nett bought Rs 45518 Cr of Indian Equities in this calendar Year till date. FII’S have nett bought Rs 729 Cr of Indian debt securities in Sep. FII’S have nett bought Rs 29331 Cr of Indian debt in this calendar year till date.
Benchmark Nifty declined 0.51% on Friday. DOW declined 70 points(0.26%) on Friday. Nikkei declined 0.77% and Hang seng declined 0.33% on Friday.
Euro closed the week at 1.0940 ,Pound at 1.2290,Yen at 107.96.
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1496 and WT1Crude at USD 56.17./Brent at USD 61.88.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 1.675% and 3 m libor closed at 2.10%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 6.74%.
Economic news: US Govt is considering measures to restrict Chinese access to US Capital markets and direct US Pension funds not to invest in Chinese companies. US-China issues, brexit, poor EU growth and Geo political problems in Gulf continue to hit market headlines and remain a worrying cause for riskier assets and Global economy.
Data highlights : – US durables order climbed 0.2% m/m.
-US Personal income climbed 0.4% m/m, spending climbed 0.1% m/m and Core PCE index grew 0.1% m/m.
Monday’s calendar: – German retail sales.
| USD/INR | 70.93 | 70.51 | |
| EUR/USD | 1.0940 | 1.0959 | 1.0904 |
| GBP/USD | 1.2290 | 1.2337 | 1.2270 |
| USD/JPY | 107.96 | 108.19 | 107.66 |
Daily Support/Resistance table
| CurrencyPairs | Pivot | R1 | R2 | R3 | S1 | S2 | S3 |
| EURO/USD | 1.0934 | 1.0964 | 1.0989 | 1.0909 | 1.0879 | ||
| GBP/USD | 1.2299 | 1.2328 | 1.2366 | 1.2261 | 1.2232 | ||
| USD/JPY | 107.93
|
108.21 | 108.47 | 107.67 | 107.39 |
|
|
| USD/INR | 70.66 | 70.81 | 71.08 | 70.39 | 70.24 |
|
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
| Curency Pair | Supports | Resistances | Trend | Remarks |
| EURO/USD | 1.0850 | 1.1110/1.1250 | DN | SIDE>1.1110 |
| GBP/USD | 1.2240/1.20 | 1.2585 | SIDE | DN<1.2240 |
| USD/JPY | 107 | 108.50/109.30 | SIDE | DN<107 |
| USD/INR | 70.45/70.20 | 70.85/71.15 | SIDE | UP>71.50 |
| USD/CHF | 0.9840 | 0.9995 | SIDE | UP >0.9995 |
Technicals: Spot closed below 50 , but above 200 day moving average. 20 day moving average is at 71.39. 50 day moving average is at 70.64.200 day moving average is at 70.18. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying top at 72.40. Important support is at 70.45/70.20 and next important resistance is at 70.85 and later at 71.15. Spot closed below its average level of the day.
Intra day supports and resistances for Aug contract are:
PP: 71.19,S1:71.05, S2:70.96, R1:71.28, R2:71.42
Hedging strategy for USD/INR: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is below major moving averages. Next Major resistance is at 1.1110. Major support is at 1.0840. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying an important top at 1.1110. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.1415.
GBP/USD: The pair is sideways and is trading between moving averages, but still below 200 day moving average.Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.2585 and weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.20. Important resistance is at 1.2580/1.2645. Important support is at 1.2240 and later at 1.20.
USD/YEN: The pair is between major moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 108.50. Next important resistance is at 108.50. Important support is at 107.
