USDINR opened at 71.34 y’day and the pair traded in the 71.07-71.37 range. Spot USDINR closed at 71.32 y’day, gain of 9 ps for USD as against prior close of 71.23. RBI reference rate was fixed at 71.81 on Tuesday. Sep USD/INR closed at 71.39, gain of 7 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 71.32. Sep Euro/INR closed at 79.07, GBP/INR at 88.91 and Yen/INR at 66.15.
FII’S have nett sold Rs 2605 Cr of Indian Equities in Sep . FII’S have nett bought Rs 46768 Cr of Indian Equities in this calendar Year till date. FII’S have nett bought Rs 3279 Cr of Indian debt securities in Sep. FII’S have nett bought Rs 31882 Cr of Indian debt in this calendar year till date.
Benchmark Nifty declined 1.25% y’day. DOW declined 52 points(0.19%) y’day. Nikkei climbed 0.38% and Hang seng declined 1.07% y’day.
Euro is now at 1.1056 ,Pound at 1.2549,Yen at 107.92.
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1510 and WT1Crude at USD 58.78./Brent at USD 64.85.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 1.77% and 3 m libor closed at 2.10%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 6.64%.
Economic news: BoE kept bank rate unchanged at 0.75% and held asset purchase target at GBP 435B as widely expected. Both decisions were made by unanimous votes.The central bank noted that since last meeting US-China trade war has “intensified” and global growth outlook has “weakened”.
Data highlights : – US Weekly jobless claims was reported at 208k, existing home sales climbed to 5.49 mn.
-US Phily fed mfrg index climbed to 12 and Consumer leading index was flat m/m.
-UK retail sales declined -0.2% m/m.
Thursday’s calendar: –
| USD/INR | 71.38 | 71.07 | |
| EUR/USD | 1.1056 | 1.1074 | 1.1023 |
| GBP/USD | 1.2549 | 1.2559 | 1.2439 |
| USD/JPY | 107.92 | 108.47 | 107.79 |
Daily Support/Resistance table
| CurrencyPairs | Pivot | R1 | R2 | R3 | S1 | S2 | S3 |
| EURO/USD | 1.1047 | 1.1071 | 1.1098 | 1.1122 | 1.1020 | 1.0996 | 1.0969 |
| GBP/USD | 1.2507 | 1.2575 | 1.2628 | 1.2696 | 1.2455 | 1.2386 | 1.2334 |
| USD/JPY | 108.11
|
108.43 | 108.79 | 109.11 | 107.75 | 107.43 | 107.06
|
| USD/INR | 71.25 | 71.44 | 71.57 | 71.12 | 70.93 |
|
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
| Curency Pair | Supports | Resistances | Trend | Remarks |
| EURO/USD | 1.0925/1.0850 | 1.1125/1.1180 | DN | SIDE>1.1280 |
| GBP/USD | 1.2310/1.2240 | 1.2565/1.2650 | UP | DN<1.2280 |
| USD/JPY | 107 | 109.30 | UP | DN<106.65 |
| USD/INR | 71.35/70.85 | 72/72.25 | UP | SIDE<71.35 |
| USD/CHF | 0.9845 | 0.9950 | SIDE | UP >0.9950 |
Technicals: Spot closed above 50 and 200 day moving averages. 20 day moving average is at 71.64. 50 day moving average is at 70.40.200 day moving average is at 70.18. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying top at 72.40. Important support is at 70.85/70.35 and next important resistance is at 72. Spot closed above its average level of the day.
Intra day supports and resistances for Aug contract are:
PP: 71.31,S1:71.18, S2:70.98, R1:71.51, R2:71.64
Hedging strategy for USD/INR: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is below major moving averages. Next Major resistance is at 1.1250 Major support is at 1.0840. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying an important top at 1.1250. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.1415.
GBP/USD: The pair is bullish and is trading above 50 day major moving average, but still below 200 day moving average.Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.20 and weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.20. Important resistance is at 1.2565/1.2645. Important support is at 1.2320/1.2265.
USD/YEN: The pair is between major moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 104.45. Next important resistance is at 109.30. Important support is at 107.
