USDINR opened gap down at 71.49 y’day and the pair traded in the 71.17-71.51 range. Spot USDINR closed at 71.23 y’day, loss of 56 ps for USD as against prior close of 71.79. RBI reference rate was fixed at 71.53 on Monday. Sep USD/INR closed at 71.32, loss of 57 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 71.89. Sep Euro/INR closed at 78.84, GBP/INR at 88.81 and Yen/INR at 65.97.

Rupee recovered as Crude prices fell on Saudi Arabia’s assurance that Oil production will be normal by Sept end.

FII’S have nett sold  Rs 2605 Cr of Indian Equities in Sep . FII’S have nett bought Rs 46768 Cr of Indian Equities in this calendar Year till date. FII’S have nett bought Rs 3279 Cr of Indian debt securities in Sep. FII’S have nett bought Rs 31882 Cr of Indian debt in this calendar year till date.

Benchmark Nifty climbed 0.21% y’day. DOW climbed 36 points(0.13%) y’day. Nikkei climbed 0.06%  and Hang seng declined 0.13% y’day.

Euro is now at 1.1035 ,Pound at 1.2466,Yen at 108.12.    

Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1500 and WT1Crude at USD 58.17./Brent at USD 63.67.

Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 1.79% and 3 m libor closed at 2.10%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 6.62%.        

Economic news: Fed on a 7-3 vote, lowered the Fed funds target rate on Wednesday to a range of 1.75% to 2.00% “in light of the implications of global developments for the economic outlook.”However, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell described U.S. prospects as “favourable” and the rate move as “insurance.” Projections published by the Fed showed policymakers, at the median, expected rates to stay within the new range through 2020, while futures markets have priced in at least another cut.

BOE rate decision will be known later today.

Data highlights : – US building permits rose to 1.42 mn, housing starts climbed to 1.36mn.

-EU CPI climbed 1% y/y.

-UK CPI climbed 1.7% y/y, RPI climbed 2.6% y/y and PPI(output) declined -0.1% m/m.

Thursday’s calendar:  –  US Weekly jobless claims, existing home sales

-US Phily fed mfrg index and Consumer leading index

-UK retail sales

Daily Support/Resistance table

MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE

Technicals: Spot closed above 50 and 200 day moving averages. 20 day moving average       is at 71.66. 50 day moving average is at 70.28.200 day moving average is at 70.18. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying top at 72.40. Important support is at 70.85/70.35 and next important resistance is at 72. Spot closed below its average level of the day.  

Intra day supports and resistances for Aug contract are:

PP: 71.40,S1:71.15, S2:70.98, R1:71.57, R2:71.82                                                     

Hedging strategy for USD/INR: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.

CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:

EURO/USD: The pair is below major moving averages. Next Major resistance is at 1.1250 Major support is at 1.0840. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying an important top at 1.1250. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.1415.

GBP/USD: The pair is bullish and is trading above 50 day major moving average, but still below 200 day moving average.Daily MACD  is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.20 and weekly MACD is  in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.20. Important resistance is at 1.2565/1.2645. Important support is at 1.2320/1.2265.

USD/YEN: The pair is between  major moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 104.45. Next important resistance is at 109.30. Important support is  at 107.