FX MORNING UPDATE               



USDINR opened at 68.34 y”day and the pair traded in the 68.29-68.42 range. Spot USDINR closed at 68.34, loss of 8 ps for USD as against prior close of 68.42.RBI reference rate was fixed at 68.38. Rupee declined and RBI stepped in to sell USD at 68.42 early y’day. Rupee is one of the worst performing EM Currencies this year due to fiscal concerns, FPI outflows from debt market and expanding crude oil imports. May USD/INR closed at 68.34, loss of 11 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 68.45. May Euro/INR closed at 80.07, GBP/INR at 91.56 and Yen/INR at 62.30.

FII’S sold Rs 4437 Cr of Indian Equities in May till date . FII’S also sold 15068 Cr of Indian debt securities in May . On a cumulative basis, FII’S have bought Rupees 3937 Cr of Indian Equities till date for this calendar year and have sold  Rupees 28837 Cr of Indian debt in this calendar year till date.

Benchmark Nifty climbed 0.8% y’day. DOW declined 75 points (0.30%) y’day.Nikkei declined 1.11%  and Hang seng climbed 0.31% y’day.

Euro is now at 1.1711 , Pound at 1.3373,Yen at 109.58.   

Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1302 and WT1Crude at USD 70.67

Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 2.98% and 3 m libor closed at 2.36%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.87%.        

Economic news: ECB minutes noted that data remained consistent with “solid and broad-based expansion”. And underlying economic strength added to the Governing Council’s “confidence” that inflation will “gradually” move back to 2% target over medium term. But since underlying inflation remain subdued, without signs of sustained upward trend, “patience, persistence and prudence with regard to monetary policy remained warranted.”

US President has ordered Commerce Secretary to start a Section 232 national security investigation on auto imports. And he’s considering to impose as much as 25% tariffs on import cars. 

Data Highlights: US Weekly jobless claims climbed to 234k and existing home sales


-UK retail sales climbed 1.6% m/m.


Friday’s calendar: – US durables order


-German Ifo survey.


USD/INR   68.42 68.29
EUR/USD 1.1711 1.1750 1.1691
GBP/USD 1.3373 1.3422 1.3350
USD/JPY 109.58 109.93 108.96

Daily Support/Resistance table

CurrencyPairs Pivot R1 R2 R3 S1 S2 S3
EURO/USD 1.1721 1.1751 1.1780 1.1810 1.1692 1.1662 1.1633
GBP/USD 1.3385 1.3420 1.3457 1.3492 1.3348 1.3313 1.3276
USD/JPY 109.40


109.84 110.37 110.81


108.87 108.43 107.90


USD/INR 68.35 68.41 68.48   68.28 68.22  







Curency Pair Supports Resistances Trend Remarks
EURO/USD 1.1710 1.2150/1.2210 DN UP>1.2150
GBP/USD 1.3450/1.33 1.3710/1.3965 DN UP>1.3965
USD/JPY 108.60/107 111.50/113.75 UP SIDE<108.60
USD/INR 67.94 68.80 UP SIDE<67.94
USD/CHF 0.9735/0.9575 1.0040 UP  DN <0.9575

Technicals: Spot closed above 100 and 200 day major moving averages. 20 day moving         is at 67.33. 50 day moving average is at 66.06. 200 day moving average is at 64.66. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying bottom at 64.85 . Important support zone is at 67.94 and later at 67.47. Important resistance is  at 68.80. Spot closed above its average level of the day.  

Intra day supports and resistances for May contract are:

PP: 68.36,S1:68.27, S2:68.19, R1:68.43, R2:68.53.

Hedging strategy for USD/INR: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.


EURO/USD: The pair is below all major moving averages. Next Major resistance is at 1.2150 and later at 1.2210. Major support is at 1.1710. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying an important top at 1.2415. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.2560.

GBP/USD: Trend is bearish in daily chart. Daily MACD  is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.3450 and weekly MACD is  in sell zone, implying important top at 1.4375. The pair is trading below all major moving average. Important resistance is at 1.3710 and later at 1.3965. Important support is at 1.3450 and later at 1.33.  

USD/YEN: The pair is above 200 day major moving average, but above 50 and 100 day moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 108.64. Important support is at 108.64. Important resistance is  111.50 and later at 113.75. 

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