USDINR opened at 71.86 y’day and the pair traded in the 71.60-71.87 range. Spot USDINR closed at 71.67 y’day, loss of 3 ps for USD as against prior close of 71.70. RBI reference rate was fixed at 71.58 on Monday. Sep USD/INR closed at 71.81, loss of 3 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 71.84. Sep Euro/INR closed at 79.15, GBP/INR at 88.69 and Yen/INR at 66.75.
FII’S have nett sold Rs 4838 Cr of Indian Equities in Sep . FII’S have nett bought Rs 44535 Cr of Indian Equities in this calendar Year till date. FII’S have pulled out Rs 33000 Cr of Indian Equities since budget day. FII’S have nett bought Rs 2407 Cr of Indian debt securities in Sep. FII’S have nett bought Rs 31010 Cr of Indian debt in this calendar year till date.
Benchmark Nifty climbed 0.30% y’day. DOW climbed 73 points(0.28%) y’day. Nikkei climbed 0.96% and Hang seng climbed 1.78% y’day.
Euro is now at 1.1013 ,Pound at 1.2331,Yen at 108.02.
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1501 and WT1Crude at USD 56.22/Brent at USD 61.28.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 1.72% and 3 m libor closed at 2.10%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 6.68%.
Economic news: Focus is on ECB decision. ECB is expected to announce monetary stimulus. Indian IIP and CPI data are other important data releases. Indian Auto stocks rallied on hopes of GST cut and other economic boosting measures.
Data highlights : – US PPI climbed 0.1% m/m.
Thursday’s calendar: – US CPI and weekly jobless claims
-EU Industrial production
| USD/INR | 71.87 | 71.60 | |
| EUR/USD | 1.1013 | 1.1056 | 1.0985 |
| GBP/USD | 1.2331 | 1.2371 | 1.2313 |
| USD/JPY | 108.02 | 108.04 | 107.56 |
Daily Support/Resistance table
| CurrencyPairs | Pivot | R1 | R2 | R3 | S1 | S2 | S3 |
| EURO/USD | 1.1018 | 1.1051 | 1.1088 | 1.1121 | 1.0980 | 1.0948 | 1.0910 |
| GBP/USD | 1.2340 | 1.2367 | 1.2398 | 1.2425 | 1.2309 | 1.2282 | 1.2250 |
| USD/JPY | 107.87
|
108.18 | 108.36 | 108.67 | 107.70 | 107.38 | 107.21
|
| USD/INR | 71.71 | 71.82 | 71.98 | 71.55 | 71.44 |
|
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
| Curency Pair | Supports | Resistances | Trend | Remarks |
| EURO/USD | 1.0850 | 1.1085/1.1165/1.1250 | DN | SIDE>1.1280 |
| GBP/USD | 1.20 | 1.2380 | DN | SIDE>1.2380 |
| USD/JPY | 104.45 | 107.20/108.30 | DN | SIDE>107.20 |
| USD/INR | 71.35/70.80 | 72.25/72.45 | UP | SIDE<71.35 |
| USD/CHF | 0.9650 | 0.9950 | SIDE | UP >0.9950 |
Technicals: Spot closed above 50 and 200 day moving averages. 20 day moving average is at 71.60. 50 day moving average is at 70.10.200 day moving average is at 70.18. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying top at 72.40. Important support is at 71.35/70.80 and next important resistance is at 72.40. Spot closed above its average level of the day.
Intra day supports and resistances for Aug contract are:
PP: 71.86,S1:71.68, S2:71.55, R1:71.99, R2:72.17
Hedging strategy for USD/INR: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is below major moving averages. Next Major resistance is at 1.1250 Major support is at 1.0840. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying an important top at 1.1250. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.1415.
GBP/USD: The pair is bearish and is trading below major moving averages.Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.20 and weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.3385. Important resistance is at 1.2380. Important support is at 1.20.
USD/YEN: The pair is below major moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 104.45. Next important resistance is at 107.20 and later at 108.30. Important support is at 104.45.
