13/04/2018
USDINR opened higher at 65.38 y’day and the pair traded in the 65.23-65.44 range. USDINR closed at 65.25, loss of 6 ps for USD as against prior close of 65.31.RBI reference rate was fixed at 65.35. April USD/INR closed at 65.34, loss of 5 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 65.39. April Euro/INR closed at 80.72, GBP/INR at 92.79 and Yen/INR at 61.
FII’S bought 95 Cr of Indian Equities in April . FII’S have bought Rupees 3706 Cr of Indian debt securities in April . On a cumulative basis, FII’S have bought Rupees 14977 Cr of Indian Equities till date for this calendar year and have bought Rupees 1801 Cr of Indian debt in this calendar year till date.
Benchmark Nifty climbed 0.40% y’day. DOW declined 218 points (0.90%) y’day.Nikkei declined 0.12% and Hang seng declined 0.22% Y’day.
Euro is now at 1.2328, Pound at 1.4232,Yen at 107.34.
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1343 and WT1Crude at USD 66.86.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 2.79% and 3 m libor closed at 2.29%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.47%.
Economic news: Indian CPI inflation climbed 4.28% in March. Food prices rose 2.81%, pulses prices declined 13.4% y/y. Core inflation, excluding food and energy climbed 5.1%.
IIP climbed 7.1% in Feb.Mfrg climbed 8.7%. IIP on cumulative basis climbed 4.3% in Apr-Feb period of 2017-18 fiscal.Consumer durables grew by 7.9% and non durables grew 7.4%. Capital goods sector grew 20%.
Data Highlights: US weekly jobless claims was reported at 233k.
Friday’s calendar: – No major data release.
| USD/INR | 65.44 | 65.23 | |
| EUR/USD | 1.2328 | 1.2380 | 1.2300 |
| GBP/USD | 1.4232 | 1.4247 | 1.4146 |
| USD/JPY | 107.34 | 107.48 | 107.25 |
Daily Support/Resistance table
| CurrencyPairs | Pivot | R1 | R2 | R3 | S1 | S2 | S3 |
| EURO/USD | 1.2337 | 1.2374 | 1.2417 | 1.2454 | 1.2294 | 1.2257 | 1.2214 |
| GBP/USD | 1.4211 | 1.4276 | 1.4312 | 1.4377 | 1.4175 | 1.4110 | 1.4074 |
| USD/JPY | 107.13
|
107.56 | 107.86 | 108.29
|
106.83 | 106.40 | 106.10
|
| USD/INR | 65.30 | 65.38 | 65.51 | 65.16 | 65.09 |
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
| Curency Pair | Supports | Resistances | Trend | Remarks |
| EURO/USD | 1.2150/1.2090 | 1.2475/1.2555 | SIDE | SIDE<1.2150 |
| GBP/USD | 1.3710 | 1.4245/1.4345 | UP | DN<1.3710 |
| USD/JPY | 104.50 | 108 | DN | SIDE>108 |
| USD/INR | 64.85 | 65.60 | UP | SIDE<64.85 |
| USD/CHF | 0.9470 | 0.9870 | SIDE | DN <0.9430 |
Technicals: Spot closed above 100 and 200 day major moving averages. 20 day moving is at 65.05. 50 day moving average is at 64.65. 200 day moving average is at 64.47. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying top at 65.30 . Important support zone is at 64.85. Important resistance is at 65.60. Spot closed below its average level of the day.
Intra day supports and resistances for April contract are:
PP: 65.40,S1:65.27, S2:65.20, R1:65.47, R2:65.60
Hedging strategy for USD/INR: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is above 100 and 200 day major moving averages, but below 20 and 50 day moving averages. Next Major resistance is at 1.2475 and later at 1.2555. Major support is at 1.2150. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying an important top at 1.2475. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.2560.
GBP/USD: Trend is bullish in daily chart. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.4250 and weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.4345. The pair is trading above 200 day major moving average. Important resistance is at 1.4245/1.4345. Important support is at 1.3710.
USD/YEN: The pair is below major moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 104.56. Important support is at 104.56. Important resistance is at 108 and later at 110.40.
