FX MORNING UPDATE

                                                                                       

USDINR opened at 71.54 Y’day and the pair traded in the 71.46-71.88 range. Spot USDINR closed at 71.77 y’day, gain of 29 ps for USD as against prior close of 71.48. RBI reference rate was fixed at 71.82 on Tuesday. Sep USD/INR closed at 72.03, gain of 28 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 71.75. Sep Euro/INR closed at 80.08, GBP/INR at 88.07 and Yen/INR at 68.18.

FII’S have nett sold  Rs 10639 Cr of Indian Equities in Aug . FII’S have nett bought Rs 54860 Cr of Indian Equities in this calendar Year till date. FII’S have pulled out Rs 22000 Cr of Indian Equities since budget day. FII’S have nett bought Rs 8240 Cr of Indian debt securities in Aug FII’S have nett bought Rs 27022 Cr of Indian debt in this calendar year till date.

Benchmark Nifty declined 0.53% Y’day. DOW climbed 258 points(1%) y’day. Nikkei climbed 0.11%  and Hang seng declined 0.19% y’day.

Euro is  now at 1.1082 ,Pound at 1.2203,Yen at 105.89.   

Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1543 and WT1Crude at USD 55.62/Brent at USD 59.45.

Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 1.456% and 3 m libor closed at 2.15%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 6.53%.        

Economic news: Govt announced relaxation in FDI norms. 100% FDI in insurance intermedairies, easing of local sourcing norms in single brand retail (exports to be counted as local sourcing) , 26% in digital media, 100% in coal mining and contract manufacturing have been allowed. Sugar subsidy for exports totalling Rs 6270 cr was approved. This is around Rs 10.5/kg.

Data highlights : No major data release.

Thursday’s calendar:  – US Weekly jobless claims, pending home sales and trade balance

USD/INR   71.88 71.46
EUR/USD 1.1082 1.1098 1.1073
GBP/USD 1.2203 1.2288 1.2157
USD/JPY 105.89 106.22 105.65

Daily Support/Resistance table

CurrencyPairs Pivot R1 R2 R3 S1 S2 S3
EURO/USD 1.1085 1.1097 1.1110 1.1122 1.1072 1.1060 1.1047
GBP/USD 1.2221 1.2285 1.2352 1.2416 1.2154 1.2090 1.2023
USD/JPY 105.99

 

106.33 106.56 106.90 105.76 105.42 105.19

 

USD/INR 71.70 71.95 72.12   71.52 71.28  

 

MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE

Curency Pair Supports Resistances Trend Remarks
EURO/USD 1.1025 1.1250/1.1425 DN SIDE>1.1280
GBP/USD 1.20 1.2380 DN SIDE>1.26
USD/JPY 104.65 109 DN UP>109
USD/INR 71.35/70.80 72.25/72.45 UP SIDE<70.80
USD/CHF 0.97 0.9950 SIDE  UP >0.9950

Technicals: Spot closed above 50 and 200 day moving averages. 20 day moving average       is at 70.87. 50 day moving average is at 69.70.200 day moving average is at 70.25. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying bottom at 68.30. Important support is at 71.45/70.85 and next important resistance is at 72.25/72.45. Spot closed above its average level of the day.  

Intra day supports and resistances for Aug contract are:

PP: 71.95,S1:71.78, S2:71.55, R1:72.19, R2:72.35.                                                     

Hedging strategy for USD/INR: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.

CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:

EURO/USD: The pair is below major moving averages. Next Major resistance is at 1.1250 Major support is at 1.1025. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying an important top at 1.1250. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.1415.

GBP/USD: The pair is bearish and is trading below major moving averages.Daily MACD  is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.2050 and weekly MACD is  in sell zone, implying important top at 1.3385. Important resistance is at 1.2380. Important support is at 1.20.

USD/YEN: The pair is below  major moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 105. Next important resistance is at 109 and later at 110.50. Important support is  at 105.

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