FX – Morning Update

USDINR opened at 71.55 Y’day and the pair traded in the 71.55-71.98 range. Spot USDINR closed at 71.81 y’day, gain of 26 ps for USD as against prior close of 71.55. RBI reference rate was fixed at 71.55 on Wednesday. Aug USD/INR closed at 71.86, gain of 28 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 71.58. Aug Euro/INR closed at 79.64, GBP/INR at 87.36 and Yen/INR at 67.46.

Rupee declined to 71.98 , tracking Yuan weakness and steep decline in Indian Equities.

FII’S have nett sold  Rs 9049 Cr of Indian Equities in Aug . FII’S have nett bought Rs 56450 Cr of Indian Equities in this calendar Year till date. FII’S have pulled out Rs 22000 Cr of Indian Equities since budget day. FII’S have nett bought Rs 11843 Cr of Indian debt securities in Aug FII’S have nett bought Rs 30625 Cr of Indian debt in this calendar year till date.

Benchmark Nifty declined 1,62% y’day. DOW climbed 49 points(0.19%) y’day. Nikkei climbed 0.05%  and Hang seng declined 0.81% Y’day.

Euro is now at 1.1090 ,Pound at 1.2237,Yen at 106.54.    

Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1495 and WT1Crude at USD 55.40/Brent at USD 60.

Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 1.647% and 3 m libor closed at 2.15%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 6.57%.        

Economic news: ECB policy meeting showed that members “broadly supported the reintroduction of an easing bias” to the forward guidance. That came in light of “weakness of the economic outlook and the muted inflation developments”.

Indian Equities declined as CEA hinted that fiscal stimulus have to be carefully thought of as there has to be a balance between fiscal prudence and fiscal stimulus

Data highlights : -US weekly jobless claims dipped to 209k.

-EU PMI (mfrg) climbed to 47.                                 

Friday’s calendar:  – US new home sales

USD/INR   71.98 71.55
EUR/USD 1.1090 1.1113 1.1063
GBP/USD 1.2237 1.2272 1.2109
USD/JPY 106.54 106.65 106.25


Daily Support/Resistance table

CurrencyPairs Pivot R1 R2 R3 S1 S2 S3
EURO/USD 1.1087 1.1111 1.1137 1.1161 1.1061 1.1037 1.1011
GBP/USD 1.2211 1.2313 1.2374 1.2476 1.2150 1.2048 1.1987
USD/JPY 106.46


106.67 106.86 107.07 106.27 106.06 105.86


USD/INR 71.78 72.01 72.21   71.58 71.35  




Curency Pair Supports Resistances Trend Remarks
EURO/USD 1.1025 1.1250/1.1425 DN SIDE>1.1280
GBP/USD 1.20 1.2380 DN SIDE>1.26
USD/JPY 104.65 109 DN UP>109
USD/INR 71.45/70.85 72.10/72.45 UP SIDE<70.85
USD/CHF 0.97 0.9950 SIDE  UP >0.9950

Technicals: Spot closed above 50 and 200 day moving averages. 20 day moving average       is at 70.16. 50 day moving average is at 69.54.200 day moving average is at 70.30. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying bottom at 68.30. Important support is at 71.45/70.85 and next important resistance is at 72.10/72.45. Spot closed below its average level of the day.  

Intra day supports and resistances for Aug contract are:

PP: 71.81,S1:71.60, S2:71.35, R1:72.06, R2:72.27                                                       

Hedging strategy for USD/INR: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.


EURO/USD: The pair is below major moving averages. Next Major resistance is at 1.1250 Major support is at 1.1025. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying an important top at 1.1250. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.1415.

GBP/USD: The pair is bearish and is trading below major moving averages.Daily MACD  is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.2050 and weekly MACD is  in sell zone, implying important top at 1.3385. Important resistance is at 1.2210 and later at 1.2380. Important support is at 1.20.

USD/YEN: The pair is below  major moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 105. Next important resistance is at 109 and later at 110.50. Important support is  at 105.


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