FX MORNING UPDATE                                                                                      

USDINR opened at 68.02 y”day and the pair traded in the 67.93-68.08 range. Spot USDINR closed at 68.04, loss of 8 ps for USD as against prior close of 68.12.RBI reference rate was fixed at 68.02. May USD/INR closed at 68.08, loss of 9 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 68.17. May Euro/INR closed at 80.41, GBP/INR at 91.58 and Yen/INR at 61.38.

FII’S sold Rs 2335 Cr of Indian Equities in May till date . FII’S also sold 10766 Cr of Indian debt securities in May . On a cumulative basis, FII’S have bought Rupees 6079 Cr of Indian Equities till date for this calendar year and have sold  Rupees 24535 Cr of Indian debt in this calendar year till date.

Benchmark Nifty climbed 0.19% y’day. DOW declined 54 points (0.22%) y’day.Nikkei declined 0.18%  and Hang seng climbed 0.60% y’day.

Euro is now at 1.1753 , Pound at 1.3408,Yen at 110.44.   

Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1291 and WT1Crude at USD 71.93

Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 3.07% and 3 m libor closed at 2.36%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.81%.        

Economic news: EU made new proposal to US on trade talks with the caveat that there should be permanent exemption on steel tariffs.


Data Highlights: No major releases y’day.


Wednesday’s calendar: – US new home sales


-EU PMI(flash-mfrg), PMI(services-flash)


-UK CPI, PPI(output) and RPI





USD/INR   68.08 67.93
EUR/USD 1.1753 1.1829 1.1757
GBP/USD 1.3408 1.3491 1.3413
USD/JPY 110.44 110.88 110.38

Daily Support/Resistance table

CurrencyPairs Pivot R1 R2 R3 S1 S2 S3
EURO/USD 1.1791 1.1825 1.1863 1.1897 1.1753 1.1719 1.1681
GBP/USD 1.3448 1.3483 1.3526 1.3561 1.3405 1.3370 1.3327
USD/JPY 110.88


111.04 111.35 111.51


110.57 110.41 110.10


USD/INR 68.01 68.10 68.16   67.94 67.86  


Curency Pair Supports Resistances Trend Remarks
EURO/USD 1.1710 1.2150/1.2210 DN UP>1.2150
GBP/USD 1.3450/1.33 1.3710/1.3965 DN UP>1.3965
USD/JPY 108.60/107 111.50/113.75 UP SIDE<108.60
USD/INR 67.47/67.10 68.13/68.80 UP SIDE<67.10
USD/CHF 0.9735/0.9575 1.0040 UP  DN <0.9575

Technicals: Spot closed above 100 and 200 day major moving averages. 20 day moving         is at 67.23. 50 day moving average is at 66. 200 day moving average is at 64.66. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying bottom at 64.85 . Important support zone is at 67.47 and later at 67.10. Important resistance is  at 68.80. Spot closed above its average level of the day.  


Intra day supports and resistances for May contract are:

PP: 68.07,S1:67.97, S2:67.87, R1:68.17, R2:68.29.

Hedging strategy for USD/INR: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.


EURO/USD: The pair is below all major moving averages. Next Major resistance is at 1.2150 and later at 1.2210. Major support is at 1.1710. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying an important top at 1.2415. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.2560.

GBP/USD: Trend is bearish in daily chart. Daily MACD  is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.3450 and weekly MACD is  in sell zone, implying important top at 1.4375. The pair is trading below all major moving average. Important resistance is at 1.3710 and later at 1.3965. Important support is at 1.3450 and later at 1.33.  

USD/YEN: The pair is above 200 day major moving average, but above 50 and 100 day moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 108.64. Important support is at 108.64. Important resistance is  111.50 and later at 113.75. 

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