FX – Morning Update

USDINR opened at 69.04 y’day and the pair traded in the 68.93-69.09 range. Spot USDINR closed at 68.95 y’day, gain of 1 ps for USD as against prior close of 68.94. RBI reference rate was fixed at 68.99 on Tuesday. July USD/INR closed at 69.01, gain of 3ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 68.98. July Euro/INR closed at 77, GBP/INR at 86.32 and Yen/INR at 63.91.

FII’S have nett sold  Rs 7143 Cr of Indian Equities in July . FII’S have nett bought Rs 71670 Cr of Indian Equities in this calendar Year till date. FII’S have nett bought Rs 7505 Cr of Indian debt securities in July. FII’S have nett bought Rs 17871 Cr of Indian debt in this calendar year till date.

Benchmark Nifty declined 0.53% y’day. DOW climbed 177 points(0.65%) y’day. Nikkei climbed 0.41% y’day and Hang seng climbed 0.20% y’day.

Euro is now at 1.1143 ,Pound at 1.2433,Yen at 108.19.    

Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1418 and WT1Crude at USD 57/Brent at USD 64.

Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 2.074% and 3 m libor closed at 2.26%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 6.43%.        

Economic news: EU manufacturing grwoth worsened further, solidifying the case for further monetary expansion. Euro tumbled as EU and German manufacturing indices worsened to 7 year lows. ECB is meeting today and is set to signal monetary expansion in Sept meeting.

Data highlights : – US new home sales

-EU PMI(mfrg) dipped to 46.4 and PMI(services) was reported at 53.3.             

Thursday’s calendar: – US durables order and weekly jobless claims

-German Ifo survey

USD/INR   69.09 68.92
EUR/USD 1.1143 1.1208 1.1145
GBP/USD 1.2433 1.2482 1.2418
USD/JPY 108.19 108.29 107.83

Daily Support/Resistance table

CurrencyPairs Pivot R1 R2 R3 S1 S2 S3
EURO/USD 1.1168 1.1191 1.1231 1.1253 1.1128 1.1105 1.1065
GBP/USD 1.2446 1.2474 1.2510 1.2538 1.2410 1.2382 1.2346
USD/JPY 108.12


108.41 108.57 108.86 107.95 107.67 107.50


USD/INR 68.99 69.05 69.15   68.89 68.83  



Curency Pair Supports Resistances Trend Remarks
EURO/USD 1.1180/1.1110 1.1415 SIDE DN<1.1180
GBP/USD 1.2380 1.2650/1.2785 DN UP>1.28
USD/JPY 106.80 109/110 DN UP>110.50
USD/INR 68.30 69.05 DN UP>70
USD/CHF 0.97 0.9950 DN  UP >0.9950

Technicals: Spot closed below major moving averages. 20 day moving average is at 68.75. 50 day moving average is at 69.28.200 day moving average is at 70.55. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying bottom at 68.30. Next support is at 68.30. Important resistance is at 69.05 and later at 69.35 .Spot closed below its average level of the day.  

Intra day supports and resistances for July contract are:

PP: 69.04,S1:68.94, S2:68.89, R1:69.10, R2:69.19                                                          

Hedging strategy for USD/INR: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.


EURO/USD: The pair is below major moving averages. Next Major resistance is at 1.1415. Major support is at 1.1180. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying an important top at 1.1415. Weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.1108.

GBP/USD: The pair is bearish and is trading below major moving averages.Daily MACD  is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.2389 and weekly MACD is  in sell zone, implying important top at 1.3385. Important resistance is at 1.2650 and later at 1.2785. Important support is at 1.2380.

USD/YEN: The pair is below  major moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 109. Next important resistance is at 109 and later at 110.40. Important support is at 106.80 and later at 104.50.

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