USDINR opened at 68.51 Y’day and the pair traded in the 68.50-68.60 range. Spot USDINR closed at 68.55 Y’day, loss of 13 ps for USD as against prior close of 68.68. RBI reference rate was fixed at 68.58 on Friday. July USD/INR closed at 68.55, loss of 16ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 68.71. July Euro/INR closed at 77.52, GBP/INR at 86.23 and Yen/INR at 63.72.
FII’S have nett sold Rs 5107 Cr of Indian Equities in July . FII’S have nett bought Rs 73706 Cr of Indian Equities in this calendar Year till date. FII’S have nett bought Rs 7291 Cr of Indian debt securities in July. FII’S have nett bought Rs 17656 Cr of Indian debt in this calendar year till date.
Benchmark Nifty climbed 0.21% Y’day. DOW climbed 27 points(0.10%) y’day. Nikkei is trading lower and Hang seng is trading flat today.
Euro is now at 1.1263 ,Pound at 1.2517,Yen at 107.94.
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1414 and WT1Crude at USD 59.60/Brent at USD 66.55.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 2.085% and 3 m libor closed at 2.30%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 6.43%.
Economic news: Indian exports in June fell 9.71% to $25.01 billion while imports dipped 9.06% to $40.29 billion, leaving behind a trade deficit of $15.28 billion during the month.
Chinese GDP growth slowed to 6.2% yoy in Q2, down from Q1’s 6.4% yoy, matched expectations. That’s also the slowest pace in at least 27 years. Headwinds from US tariffs and weaker global growth would still likely drag down China’s growth ahead.
Chinese exports in June fell 1.3%, while imports shrank 7.3%, leading to a trade surplus of $50.98 billion, significantly higher than what analysts projected.
Data highlights : US NY mfrg index climbed to 4.3.
Tuesday’s calendar: – US retail sales and industrial production
-EU Zew surveys
-UK unemployment rate
| USD/INR | 68.60 | 68.50 | |
| EUR/USD | 1.1263 | 1.1284 | 1.1253 |
| GBP/USD | 1.2517 | 1.2576 | 1.2510 |
| USD/JPY | 107.94 | 108.11 | 107.81 |
Daily Support/Resistance table
| CurrencyPairs | Pivot | R1 | R2 | R3 | S1 | S2 | S3 |
| EURO/USD | 1.1266 | 1.1279 | 1.1296 | 1.1309 | 1.1248 | 1.1236 | 1.1218 |
| GBP/USD | 1.2534 | 1.2558 | 1.2600 | 1.2624 | 1.2492 | 1.2468 | 1.2426 |
| USD/JPY | 107.94
|
108.07 | 108.24 | 108.37
|
107.77 | 107.64 | 107.48
|
| USD/INR | 68.55 | 68.60 | 68.65 | 68.50 | 68.45 |
|
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
| Curency Pair | Supports | Resistances | Trend | Remarks |
| EURO/USD | 1.1180/1.1110 | 1.1415 | UP | DN<1.1180 |
| GBP/USD | 1.2480 | 1.2785/1.2930 | DN | UP>1.28 |
| USD/JPY | 106.80 | 108.80/110 | DN | UP>110.50 |
| USD/INR | 68.30 | 69.05 | DN | UP>70 |
| USD/CHF | 0.97 | 1.0020 | DN | UP >1.0050 |
Technicals: Spot closed below major moving averages. 20 day moving average is at 69.10. 50 day moving average is at 69.45.200 day moving average is at 70.78. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying top at 69.97. Next support is at 68.30. Important resistance is at 69.05 and later at 69.35 .Spot closed above its average level of the day.
Intra day supports and resistances for July contract are:
PP: 68.64,S1:68.58, S2:68.53, R1:68.69, R2:68.75.
Hedging strategy for USD/INR: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is between major moving averages. Next Major resistance is at 1.1450. Major support is at 1.1180. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying an important top at 1.1415. Weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.1108.
GBP/USD: The pair is bearish and is trading below major moving averages.Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.2785 and weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.3385. Important resistance is at 1.2785 and later at 1.2930. Important support is at 1.2480
USD/YEN: The pair is below major moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 106.80. Next important resistance is at 108.80 and later at 110.40. Important support is at 106.80 and later at 104.50.
