USDINR opened at 68.63 Y’day and the pair traded in the 68.53-68.75 range. Spot USDINR closed at 68.65 Y’day, gain of 23 ps for USD as against prior close of 68.42. RBI reference rate was fixed at 68.74 on Friday. July USD/INR closed at 68.81, gain of 22ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 68.59. July Euro/INR closed at 77.36, GBP/INR at 86.32 and Yen/INR at 63.52.
FII’S have nett sold Rs 3141 Cr of Indian Equities in July . FII’S have nett bought Rs 75775 Cr of Indian Equities in this calendar Year till date. FII’S have nett bought Rs 1369 Cr of Indian debt securities in July. FII’S have nett bought Rs 11734 Cr of Indian debt in this calendar year till date.
Benchmark Nifty declined 2.14% Y’day. DOW declined 115 points(0.43%) y’day. Nikkei declined 0.98% and Hang seng was down 1.54%.
Euro is now at 1.1210 ,Pound at 1.2510,Yen at 108.80.
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1395 and WT1Crude at USD 57.48/Brent at USD 63.90.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 2.04% and 3 m libor closed at 2.30%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 6.56%.
Economic news: Indian Equity markets continued to decline due to negative implications on IT surcharge as it could affect FPI’S registered as trusts and individuals.Also, FPI with Long term capital gains in excess of Rs 2 Cr will have to pay higher tax. Also, buy back has become less attractive due to change in taxation policy. Raising of free float to 35% from 25% is also considered as a deterrent to MNC’S. Indian Treasury yields declined as part of Govt borrowing may shift to external currencies, thus reducing Govt borrowing locally.
Data highlights : – EU investor confidence dipped to -5.8 and German industrial production climbed 0.3% m/m.
Tuesday’s calendar: – Fed Chairman’s speech.
| USD/INR | 68.75 | 68.53 | |
| EUR/USD | 1.1210 | 1.1235 | 1.1207 |
| GBP/USD | 1.2510 | 1.2540 | 1.2500 |
| USD/JPY | 108.80 | 108.81 | 108.29 |
Daily Support/Resistance table
| CurrencyPairs | Pivot | R1 | R2 | R3 | S1 | S2 | S3 |
| EURO/USD | 1.1217 | 1.1227 | 1.1245 | 1.1199 | 1.1189 | ||
| GBP/USD | 1.2516 | 1.2533 | 1.2556 | 1.2492 | 1.2476 | ||
| USD/JPY | 108.63
|
108.97 | 109.15 |
|
108.45 | 108.11 |
|
| USD/INR | 68.65 | 68.75 | 68.87 | 68.55 | 68.43 |
|
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
| Curency Pair | Supports | Resistances | Trend | Remarks |
| EURO/USD | 1.1180/1.1110 | 1.1415 | UP | DN<1.1180 |
| GBP/USD | 1.2480 | 1.2785/1.2930 | DN | UP>1.28 |
| USD/JPY | 106.80 | 108.80/110 | DN | UP>110.50 |
| USD/INR | 68.30 | 69.05 | DN | UP>70 |
| USD/CHF | 0.97 | 1.0020 | DN | UP >1.0050 |
Technicals: Spot closed below major moving averages. 20 day moving average is at 69.25. 50 day moving average is at 69.54.200 day moving average is at 70.78. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying top at 69.97. Next support is at 68.30. Important resistance is at 69.05 and later at 69.35 .Spot closed above its average level of the day.
Intra day supports and resistances for July contract are:
PP: 68.80,S1:68.70, S2:68.59, R1:68.91, R2:69.07.
Hedging strategy for USD/INR: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is between major moving averages. Next Major resistance is at 1.1450. Major support is at 1.1180. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying an important top at 1.1415. Weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.1108.
GBP/USD: The pair is bearish and is trading below major moving averages.Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.2785 and weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.3385. Important resistance is at 1.2785 and later at 1.2930. Important support is at 1.2480
USD/YEN: The pair is below major moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 106.80. Next important resistance is at 108.80 and later at 110.40. Important support is at 106.80 and later at 104.50.
