USDINR opened at 68.55 Y’day and the pair traded in the 68.39-68.76 range. Spot USDINR closed at 68.42 Y’day, loss of 7 ps for USD as against prior close of 68.49. RBI reference rate was fixed at 68.85 on Thursday. July USD/INR closed at 68.59, loss of 11ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 68.70. July Euro/INR closed at 77.43, GBP/INR at 86.24 and Yen/INR at 63.61. Rupee remained strong as Fiscal target was maintained at 3.3%. Govt aims to achieve 5 trn economy before 2024, housing for all by 2022 and drinking water to every household by 2024.

FII’S have nett sold  Rs 3141 Cr of Indian Equities in July . FII’S have nett bought Rs 75775 Cr of Indian Equities in this calendar Year till date. FII’S have nett bought Rs 1369 Cr of Indian debt securities in July. FII’S have nett bought Rs 11734 Cr of Indian debt in this calendar year till date.

Benchmark Nifty declined 1.14% on Friday. DOW declined 43 points(0.14%) on Friday. Nikkei climbed 0.2% on Friday and Hang seng was down 0.07%.

Euro closed the week at 1.1225 ,Pound at 1.2524,Yen at 108.47.

Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1401 and WT1Crude at USD 57.73/Brent at USD 64.47.

Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 2.05% and 3 m libor closed at 2.30%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 6.70%.        

Economic news: Indian budget proposals aims at boost to infrastructure sector, along with incentives for EV’S and investments in Solar energy sector. Water, solid waste mgt and affordable housing are given priorities. Highway construction and railway modernisation wre also the focus areas.                                                                                                          

Pension benefit to unorganised sector and tax concessions for investment in afforable houses and purchase of EV’S were the only major concessions in taxation.

There was no specific stimulus programme to reverse economic slow down. Simplification of GST filing and benefits to angel investors are in the offing. Increase in Petro cess and higher customs duty on Gold are the negatives for common man. Banks are to receive capital infustion and more credit flow is possible to NBFC’S.

Indian Equity markets declined 1.14% on Friday and 10 Year yield closed at 6.7% after a steep fall to 6.56%.

US Dollar rebounded against majors on strong US employment data. US yields jumped, even though analysts expect Fed to cut rates later this month. US non-farm payroll report showed 224k growth in the job market in June, notably above expectation of 164k. Unemployment rate rose 0.1% to 3.7%, above expectation of 3.6%. Average hourly earnings rose 0.2% mom, below expectation of 0.3% mom. 

Data highlights : – German factory orders declined -2.2% m/m and EUR retail sales declined -0.3% m/m.

Monday’s calendar: – EU investor confidence and German industrial production.

USD/INR   68.95 68.80
EUR/USD 1.1225 1.1289 1.1207
GBP/USD 1.2524 1.2589 1.2481
USD/JPY 108.47 108.64 107.78



Daily Support/Resistance table

CurrencyPairs Pivot R1 R2 R3 S1 S2 S3
EURO/USD 1.1240 1.1273  1.1322    1.1191 1.1158  
GBP/USD 1.2531 1.2581  1.2639   1.2473 1.2423  
USD/JPY 108.29


108.82  109.17  


 107.94 107.41  


USD/INR 68.89 68.96 69.04   68.83 68.74  



Curency Pair Supports Resistances Trend Remarks
EURO/USD 1.1180/1.1110 1.1415 UP DN<1.1180
GBP/USD 1.2480 1.2785/1.2930 DN UP>1.28
USD/JPY 106.80 108.80/110 DN UP>110.50
USD/INR 68.30 69.05 DN UP>70
USD/CHF 0.97 1.0020 DN  UP >1.0050

Technicals: Spot closed below major moving averages. 20 day moving average is at 69.29. 50 day moving average is at 69.57.200 day moving average is at 70.78. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying top at 69.97. Next support is at 68.30. Important resistance is at 69.05 and later at 69.35 .Spot closed below its average level of the day.  

Intra day supports and resistances for July contract are:

PP: 68.70,S1:68.46, S2:68.33, R1:68.83, R2:69.07.                                                         

Hedging strategy for USD/INR: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.



EURO/USD: The pair is between major moving averages. Next Major resistance is at 1.1450. Major support is at 1.1180. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying an important top at 1.1415. Weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.1108.

GBP/USD: The pair is bearish and is trading below major moving averages.Daily MACD  is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.2785 and weekly MACD is  in sell zone, implying important top at 1.3385. Important resistance is at 1.2785 and later at 1.2930. Important support is at 1.2480

USD/YEN: The pair is below  major moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 106.80. Next important resistance is at 108.80 and later at 110.40. Important support is at 106.80 and later at 104.50.

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