FX MORNING UPDATE

USDINR opened at 68.87 Y’day and the pair traded in the 68.80-68.95 range. Spot USDINR closed at 68.90 Y’day, loss of 4 ps for USD as against prior close of 68.94. RBI reference rate was fixed at 68.97 on Monday. July USD/INR closed at 69.09, loss of 7ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 69.16. July Euro/INR closed at 78.25, GBP/INR at 87.02 and Yen/INR at 64.28.

FII’S have nett bought  Rs 1601 Cr of Indian Equities in June . FII’S have nett bought Rs 79485 Cr of Indian Equities in this calendar Year till date. FII’S have nett bought Rs 5821 Cr of Indian debt securities in June. FII’S have nett bought Rs 8499 Cr of Indian debt in this calendar year till date.

Benchmark Nifty closed flat y’day. DOW climbed 179 points(0.67%) Y’day. Nikkei closed flat y’day and Hang seng was down 0.07%.

Euro is now at 1.1288 ,Pound at 1.2582,Yen at 107.77.    

Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1422 and WT1Crude at USD 57.47/Brent at USD 63.95.

Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 1.95% and 3 m libor closed at 2.61%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 6.83%.        

Economic news: Focus is on Indian economic survey and budget. US and European treasury yields declined even further as there is a growing expectation of easing by Fed and further monetary expansion by ECB.

Data highlights : – US ADP employment report showed that private sector added only 102k jobs. ISM( non mfrg) declined to 55.1 and factory orders declined -0.7% m/m.

-US trade deficit expanded to -55.5 bn and weekly jobless claims was reported at 221k.

-EU PMI(services) inched higher to 53.6.

-UK PMI(services) declined to 50.2.

Thursday’s calendar: – EUR retail sales

USD/INR   68.95 68.80
EUR/USD 1.1288 1.1320 1.1275
GBP/USD 1.2582 1.2646 1.2585
USD/JPY 107.77 108.47 107.76

Daily Support/Resistance table

CurrencyPairs Pivot R1 R2 R3 S1 S2 S3
EURO/USD 1.1289 1.1309 1.1331 1.1351 1.1268 1.1247 1.1226
GBP/USD 1.2581 1.2605 1.2626 1.2649 1.2560 1.2536 1.2515
USD/JPY 107.73

 

107.92 108.08 108.27

 

107.57 107.38 107.22

 

USD/INR 68.89 68.96 69.04   68.83 68.74  

 

                                                                                                                                               

MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE

Curency Pair Supports Resistances Trend Remarks
EURO/USD 1.1180/1.1110 1.1440 UP DN<1.1180
GBP/USD 1.2510 1.2825/1.2930 DN UP>1.30
USD/JPY 106.80 108.80/110 DN UP>110.50
USD/INR 68.80/68.30 69.97 DN UP>70
USD/CHF 0.97 0.9850/1.0020 DN  UP >1.0050

Technicals: Spot closed below major moving averages. 20 day moving average is at 69.37. 50 day moving average is at 69.61.200 day moving average is at 70.85. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying top at 69.97. Next support is at 68.80. Important resistance is at 69.40 and later at 69.75 .Spot closed above its average level of the day.  

Intra day supports and resistances for July contract are:

PP: 69.08,S1:69.01, S2:68.93, R1:69.16, R2:69.23.                                                         

Hedging strategy for USD/INR: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.

CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:

EURO/USD: The pair is above major moving averages. Next Major resistance is at 1.1450. Major support is at 1.1180. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying an important bottom at 1.1180. Weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.1108.

GBP/USD: The pair is bearish and is trading below major moving averages.Daily MACD  is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.2510 and weekly MACD is  in sell zone, implying important top at 1.3385. Important resistance is at 1.2825 and later at 1.2930. Important support is at 1.2510.

USD/YEN: The pair is below  major moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 106.80. Next important resistance is at 108.80 and later at 110.40. Important support is at 106.80 and later at 104.50.

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