USDINR opened at 69.05 on Friday and the pair traded in the 68.88-69.12 range. Spot USDINR closed at 69.03 on Friday, loss of 3 ps for USD as against prior close of 69.06. RBI reference rate was fixed at 69.22 on Thursday. July USD/INR closed at 69.29, loss of 4ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 69.33. July Euro/INR closed at 79.05, GBP/INR at 88.05 and Yen/INR at 64.49.

FII’S have nett bought  Rs 1601 Cr of Indian Equities in June . FII’S have nett bought Rs 79485 Cr of Indian Equities in this calendar Year till date. FII’S have nett bought Rs 5821 Cr of Indian debt securities in June. FII’S have nett bought Rs 8499 Cr of Indian debt in this calendar year till date.

Benchmark Nifty declined -0.45% on Friday. DOW climbed 73 points(0.28%) on Friday. Nikkei declined -0.29%  and Hang seng was down 0.28% on Friday.

Euro closed the week at 1.1364 ,Pound at 1.2701,Yen at 108.15.

Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1412 and WT1Crude at USD 58.20/Brent at USD 64.40.

Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 2.00% and 3 m libor closed at 2.61%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 6.88%.        

Economic news: US and China agreed to stop further escalation of trade war for the time being, after a meeting between Trump and Xi Jinping, on sideline of G20 summit in Japan. Trade negotiations will resume while China agreed to purchase additional US agricultural products. Meanwhile, the ban of supply to Chinese telecom giant would be lifted partially as part of the agreement.

G20 leaders ended the summit in Japan pledging to realize a free and fair trade and investment environment. But they stopped short of denouncing protectionism. 

Russia and OPEC have more or less decided to extend supply cut for another 6 months. OPEC meeting is taking place on Monday.

Focus is on Indian budget and US macro-economic indicators.

Data highlights : US personal income climbed 0.5% m/m, spending  climbed 0.4% m/m and Core PCE index climbed 0.2% m/m.

-EU CPI climbed 1.1% y/y.

Monday’s calendar: – US ISM(mfrg) and construction spending

-EU unemployment rate,UK PMI(mfrg)

USD/INR   69.12 68.88
EUR/USD 1.1364 1.1395 1.1351
GBP/USD 1.2801 1.2735 1.2663
USD/JPY 108.15 107.94 107.56

Daily Support/Resistance table

CurrencyPairs Pivot R1 R2 R3 S1 S2 S3
EURO/USD 1.1372 1.1393 1.1416 1.1437 1.1349 1.1328 1.1305
GBP/USD 1.2698 1.2733 1.2770 1.2805 1.2661 1.2626 1.2589
USD/JPY 107.80


108.04 108.18 108.42


107.66 107.42 107.28


USD/INR 69.01 69.14 69.25   68.90 68.77  




Curency Pair Supports Resistances Trend Remarks
EURO/USD 1.1180/1.1110 1.1440 UP DN<1.1180
GBP/USD 1.2510 1.2825/1.2930 DN UP>1.30
USD/JPY 106.80 108.80/110 DN UP>110.50
USD/INR 68.84/68.30 69.97 DN UP>70
USD/CHF 0.97 0.9850/1.0020 DN  UP >1.0050

Technicals: Spot closed below major moving averages. 20 day moving average is at 69.45. 50 day moving average is at 69.65.200 day moving average is at 70.85. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying top at 69.97. Next support is at 68.85. Important resistance is at 69.40 and later at 69.75 .Spot closed above its average level of the day.  

Intra day supports and resistances for July contract are:

PP: 69.26,S1:69.15, S2:69.02, R1:69.40, R2:69.50.                                                         

Hedging strategy for USD/INR: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.


EURO/USD: The pair is above major moving averages. Next Major resistance is at 1.1450. Major support is at 1.1180. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying an important bottom at 1.1180. Weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.1108.

GBP/USD: The pair is bearish and is trading below major moving averages.Daily MACD  is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.2510 and weekly MACD is  in sell zone, implying important top at 1.3385. Important resistance is at 1.2825 and later at 1.2930. Important support is at 1.2510.

USD/YEN: The pair is below  major moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 106.80. Next important resistance is at 108.80 and later at 110.40. Important support is at 106.80 and later at 104.50.

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