FX MORNING UPDATE

                                                                                     

USDINR opened at 69.25 y’day and the pair traded in the 69.06-69.31 range. Spot USDINR closed at 69.06 y’day, loss of 9 ps for USD as against prior close of 69.15. RBI reference rate was fixed at 69.32 on Wednesday. July USD/INR closed at 69.33, loss of 25ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 69.57. July Euro/INR closed at 79.07, GBP/INR at 88.26 and Yen/INR at 64.45.

FII’S have nett sold  Rs 118 Cr of Indian Equities in June . FII’S have nett bought Rs 77765 Cr of Indian Equities in this calendar Year till date. FII’S have nett bought Rs 8047 Cr of Indian debt securities in June. FII’S have nett bought Rs 10725 Cr of Indian debt in this calendar year till date.

Benchmark Nifty declined -0.05% y’day. DOW declined 11 points(-0.04%) y’day. Nikkei is down  -0.3% in early trade today  and Hang seng was up 1.42% y’day.

Euro is now at 1.1368 ,Pound at 1.2672,Yen at 107.72.    

Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1420 and WT1Crude at USD 59.17/Brent at USD 65.43.

Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 2.01% and 3 m libor closed at 2.61%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 6.90%.        

Economic news: The financial markets are generally in consolidative mode, awaiting the start of the two-day G20 summit in Osaka, Japan tomorrow. China insisted that US should address its core concerns. US President said that he would impose additional tariffs, if talks collapse. US GDP growth for last quarter was finalized at 3.1%.

Data highlights : — US Weekly jobless claims dipped to 227k and pending home sales climbed 1.1% m/m.

-Japanese unemployment rate was reported at 2.4% and CPI climbed 0.9% y/y.

Friday’s calendar: – US personal income, spending and Core PCE index.

-German retail sales.

USD/INR   69.31 69.06
EUR/USD 1.1368 1.1381 1.1348
GBP/USD 1.2672 1.2725 1.2663
USD/JPY 107.72 108.16 107.65

 

Daily Support/Resistance table

CurrencyPairs Pivot R1 R2 R3 S1 S2 S3
EURO/USD 1.1367 1.1386 1.1401 1.1420 1.1353 1.1333 1.1319
GBP/USD 1.2687 1.2711 1.2750 1.2774 1.2649 1.2624 1.2586
USD/JPY 107.85

 

108.05 108.36 108.55

 

107.54 107.34 107.03

 

USD/INR 69.14 69.22 69.39   68.97 68.89  

 

 

                                                                                                                                               

MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE

Curency Pair Supports Resistances Trend Remarks
EURO/USD 1.1180/1.1110 1.1440 SIDE UP>1.1375
GBP/USD 1.2510 1.2825/1.2930 DN UP>1.30
USD/JPY 107.10/104.50 108.80/110.40 DN UP>110.50
USD/INR 69.06 69.97 DN UP>70
USD/CHF 0.9715 1.0020 DN  UP >1.0050

Technicals: Spot closed below major moving averages. 20 day moving average is at 69.48. 50 day moving average is at 69.64.200 day moving average is at 70.85. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying top at 69.97. Next support is at 68.85. Important resistance is at 69.40 and later at 70 .Spot closed below its average level of the day.  

Intra day supports and resistances for July contract are:

PP: 69.42,S1:69.22, S2:69.12, R1:69.52, R2:69.72.                                                         

Hedging strategy for USD/INR: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.

CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:

EURO/USD: The pair is above major moving averages. Next Major resistance is at 1.1450. Major support is at 1.1180. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying an important bottom at 1.1180. Weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.1108.

GBP/USD: The pair is bearish and is trading below major moving averages.Daily MACD  is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.2510 and weekly MACD is  in sell zone, implying important top at 1.3385. Important resistance is at 1.2825 and later at 1.2930. Important support is at 1.2510.

USD/YEN: The pair is below  major moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 108.80. Next important resistance is at 108.80 and later at 110.40. Important support is at 107.10 and later at 104.50.

 

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