FX MORNING UPDATE 

 

12/06/2019

                                                                                      

USDINR opened at 69.47 y’day and the pair traded in the 69.35-69.51 range. Spot USDINR closed at 69.45 y’day, loss of 20 ps for USD as against prior close of 69.65. RBI reference rate was fixed at 69.46 on Monday. June USD/INR closed at 69.59, loss of 19ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 69.78. June Euro/INR closed at 78.80, GBP/INR at 88.47 and Yen/INR at 64.09.

FII’S have nett bought  Rs 725 Cr of Indian Equities in June . FII’S have nett bought Rs 77884 Cr of Indian Equities in this calendar Year till date. FII’S have nett sold Rs 1289 Cr of Indian debt securities in June. FII’S have nett bought Rs 1389 Cr of Indian debt in this calendar year till date.

Benchmark Nifty climbed 0.36% y’day. DOW declined 29 points (-0.11%) y’day. Nikkei climbed 0.33% and Hang seng climbed 0.76 % y’day.

Euro is now at 1.1330 ,Pound at 1.2721,Yen at 108.53.    

Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1330 and WT1Crude at USD 53.25/Brent at USD 62.27.

Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 2.14% and 3 m libor closed at 2.61%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.04%.        

Economic news: US President said that he hoped to meet Chinese President later this month at G-20 Summit and at the same time cautioned that there is a possibility of 25% tariff on full Chinese imports (USD 600 bn). Focus is on Indian IIP and CPI.

                                                                                                                                   

Data highlights : — US PPI climbed 0.1% m/m.

-EU sentix investor confidence dipped to -3.3.

-UK unemployment rate was at 3.8% and claimant count change was reportd at 23.2k.

Wednesday’s calendar: – US CPI

-Japanese core machinery orders.

USD/INR   69.51 69.35
EUR/USD 1.1330 1.1337 1.1302
GBP/USD 1.2721 1.2730 1.2672
USD/JPY 108.53 108.81 108.36

 Daily Support/Resistance table

CurrencyPairs Pivot R1 R2 R3 S1 S2 S3
EURO/USD 1.1323 1.1344  1.1358    1.1309 1.1288  
GBP/USD 1.2707 1.2743  1.2756    1.2684 1.2658  
USD/JPY 108.56

 

108.77  109.02  

 

 108.31 108.10  

 

USD/INR 69.43 69.52 69.59   69.35 69.27  

 

 MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE

Curency Pair Supports Resistances Trend Remarks
EURO/USD 1.1110/1.0970/1.0840 1.1375 SIDE UP>1.1375
GBP/USD 1.2650 1.2865/1.3175 DN UP>1.30
USD/JPY 107.70 110.65 DN UP>110.85
USD/INR 69.05/68.90/68.30 69.75/70.06 DN UP>70.50
USD/CHF 0.9715 1.0050 DN  UP >1.0080

Technicals: Spot closed below major moving averages. 20 day moving average is at 69.72. 50 day moving average is at 69.54.200 day moving average is at 70.85. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying top at 70.54. Next support is at 68.90. Important resistance is at 69.75 and later at 70.05 .Spot closed above its average level of the day.  

Intra day supports and resistances for June contract are:

PP: 69.53,S1:69.40, S2:69.33, R1:69.60, R2:69.73.                                                         

Hedging strategy for USD/INR: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.

CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:

EURO/USD: The pair is below 200 day major moving average and hence bearish. Next Major resistance is at 1.1375. Major support is at 1.1110 and later at 1.0970. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying an important bottom at 1.1106. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.1570.

GBP/USD: The pair is bearish and is trading below major moving averages.Daily MACD  is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.2558 and weekly MACD is  in sell zone, implying important top at 1.3385. Important resistance is at 1.2865. Important support is at 1.2560.

USD/YEN: The pair is below  major moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 112.40. Next important resistance is at 110.70 and later at 112.40. Important support is at 107.75.

 

 

 

 

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