11/06/2019
USDINR opened at 69.44 y’day and the pair traded in the 69.39-69.67 range. Spot USDINR closed at 69.65 y’day, gain of 18 ps for USD as against prior close of 69.47. RBI reference rate was fixed at 69.30 on Monday. June USD/INR closed at 69.78, gain of 18ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 69.60. June Euro/INR closed at 78.95, GBP/INR at 88.50 and Yen/INR at 64.27.
FII’S have nett bought Rs 725 Cr of Indian Equities in June . FII’S have nett bought Rs 77884 Cr of Indian Equities in this calendar Year till date. FII’S have nett sold Rs 1289 Cr of Indian debt securities in June. FII’S have nett bought Rs 1389 Cr of Indian debt in this calendar year till date.
Benchmark Nifty climbed 0.44% y’day. DOW climbed 263 points (1.08%) on Friday. Nikkei climbed 0.53% and Hang seng climbed 0.26 % on Friday.
Euro closed the week at 1.1315 ,Pound at 1.2681,Yen at 108.61.
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1333 and WT1Crude at USD 53.50/Brent at USD 62.30.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 2.084% and 3 m libor closed at 2.61%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.07%.
Economic news: UK GDP contracted -0.4% mom in April, much worse than expectation of -0.1% mom. Index of production dropped -2.7%, manufacturing dropped -3.9% and construction dropped -0.4%.
China’s import unexpectedly contracted by -8.5% yoy in May. Exports rose 1.1% y/y. Trade surplues widened to USD 41.7 bn. With US, Exports dropped -8.4% yoy to USD 160.1B in this year. Imports dropped -29.6% yoy to USD 49.6B.
Total trade dropped -14.5% yoy to USD 209.7B. Trade surplus was at USD 110.5B in this year. Q1 GDP growth was finalized at 0.6% qoq, revised up from 0.5% qoq.
Data highlights : — UK industrial and manufacturing production declined -2.7% and -3.9% m/m respectively.
Tuesday’s calendar: US PPI
-UK unemployment rate and claimant count change.
-Japanese core machinery orders.
| USD/INR | 69.67 | 69.39 | |
| EUR/USD | 1.1315 | 1.1325 | 1.1290 |
| GBP/USD | 1.2681 | 1.2728 | 1.2655 |
| USD/JPY | 108.61 | 108.72 | 108.32 |
Daily Support/Resistance table
| CurrencyPairs | Pivot | R1 | R2 | R3 | S1 | S2 | S3 |
| EURO/USD | 1.1311 | 1.1332 | 1.1346 | 1.1367 | 1.1297 | 1.1276 | 1.1262 |
| GBP/USD | 1.2691 | 1.2727 | 1.2764 | 1.2801 | 1.2654 | 1.2618 | 1.2581 |
| USD/JPY | 108.47
|
108.62 | 108.87 | 109.01
|
108.22 | 108.07 | 107.82
|
| USD/INR | 69.57 | 69.75 | 69.85 | 69.47 | 69.29 |
|
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
| Curency Pair | Supports | Resistances | Trend | Remarks |
| EURO/USD | 1.1110/1.0970/1.0840 | 1.1375 | SIDE | UP>1.1375 |
| GBP/USD | 1.2650 | 1.2865/1.3175 | DN | UP>1.30 |
| USD/JPY | 107.70 | 110.65 | DN | UP>110.85 |
| USD/INR | 69.05/68.90/68.30 | 69.75/70.06 | DN | UP>70.50 |
| USD/CHF | 0.9715 | 1.0050 | DN | UP >1.0080 |
Technicals: Spot closed below major moving averages. 20 day moving average is at 69.78. 50 day moving average is at 69.53.200 day moving average is at 70.85. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying top at 70.54. Next support is at 68.90. Important resistance is at 69.75 and later at 70.05 .Spot closed above its average level of the day.
Intra day supports and resistances for June contract are:
PP: 69.69,S1:69.59, S2:69.41, R1:69.87, R2:69.97.
Hedging strategy for USD/INR: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is below 200 day major moving average and hence bearish. Next Major resistance is at 1.1375. Major support is at 1.1110 and later at 1.0970. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying an important bottom at 1.1106. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.1570.
GBP/USD: The pair is bearish and is trading below major moving averages.Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.2558 and weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.3385. Important resistance is at 1.2865. Important support is at 1.2560.
USD/YEN: The pair is below major moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 112.40. Next important resistance is at 110.70 and later at 112.40. Important support is at 107.75.
