FX MORNING UPDATE            

29/05/2019

                                                                          

USDINR opened at 69.65 Y’day and the pair traded in the 69.59-69.73 range. Spot USDINR closed at 69.68, gain of 18 ps for USD as against prior close of 69.50. RBI reference rate was fixed at 69.60 on Friday. May USD/INR closed at 69.68, gain of 15 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 69.53. May Euro/INR closed at 77.98, GBP/INR at 88.29 and Yen/INR at 63.75.

FII’S have nett sold  Rs 1135 Cr of Indian Equities in May till date. FII’S have nett bought Rs 66925 Cr of Indian Equities in this calendar Year till date. FII’S have sold Rs 1552 Cr of Indian debt securities in May. FII’S have nett sold Rs 2662 Cr of Indian debt in this calendar year till date.

Benchmark Nifty climbed 0.03% Y’day. DOW declined 237 points (0.93%) y’day. Nikkei climbed 0.37% and Hang seng climbed 0.38 % y’day.

Euro is now at 1.1166 ,Pound at 1.2660,Yen at 109.39.     

Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1279 and WT1Crude at USD 58.48/Brent at USD 68.08.

Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 2.26% and 3 m libor closed at 2.61%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.15%.   

Economic news: European Commission President reiterated EU’s stance that Brexit agreement is not open for renegotiation. Indian Q4 GDP of last fiscal and RBI policy are key events in coming days.

Data highlights : – US Consumer confidence improved to 134.1 and house price index climbed 0.1% m/m.

Wednesday’s calendar: – No major data release.                                        

USD/INR   69.73 69.59
EUR/USD 1.1166 1.1199 1.1159
GBP/USD 1.2660 1.2702 1.2651
USD/JPY 109.39 109.64 109.21

Daily Support/Resistance table

CurrencyPairs Pivot R1 R2 R3 S1 S2 S3
EURO/USD 1.1176 1.1193 1.1215 1.1232 1.1153 1.1137 1.1114
GBP/USD 1.2671 1.2691 1.2722 1.2743 1.2640 1.2620 1.2589
USD/JPY 109.40

 

109.59 109.83 110.02

 

109.16 108.97 108.74

 

USD/INR 69.66 69.74 69.80   69.59 69.52  

 

MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE

Curency Pair Supports Resistances Trend Remarks
EURO/USD 1.1110/1.0970/1.0840 1.1265/1.1325 DN UP>1.1325
GBP/USD 1.2480 1.2770/1.2865/1.3175 DN UP>1.30
USD/JPY 108.50/107.50 110.70/112.40 DN UP>110.85
USD/INR 69.35/69.20 70.52/70.80 UP DN<69.35
USD/CHF 0.9950 1.0125 SIDE  UP >1.0125

Technicals: Spot closed between major moving averages. 20 day moving average is at 69.79. 50 day moving average is at 69.47.200 day moving average is at 70.80. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying top at 70.54. Important support zone is at 69.35.Important resistance is at 70.50 and later at 70.80 .Spot closed above its average level of the day.  

Intra day supports and resistances for May contract are:

PP: 69.66,S1:69.57, S2:69.46, R1:69.77, R2:69.86.                                                         

Hedging strategy for USD/INR: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.

CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:

EURO/USD: The pair is below all major moving averages. Next Major resistance is at 1.1265. Major support is at 1.1110 and later at 1.0970. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying an important top at 1.1265. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.1570.

GBP/USD: The pair has turned bearish and is trading below major moving averages.Daily MACD  is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.3175 and weekly MACD is  in sell zone, implying important top at 1.3385. Important resistance is at 1.2775 and later at 1.2865. Important support is at 1.2480.

USD/YEN: The pair is below  major moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 112.40. Next important resistance is at 110.70 and later at 112.40. Important support is at 108.50 and later at 107.75.

 

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