USDINR opened at 69.76 y’day and the pair traded in the 69.65-69.81 range. Spot USDINR closed at 69.72, loss of 2 ps for USD as against prior close of 69.74. RBI reference rate was fixed at 69.54 on Monday. May USD/INR closed at 69.79, loss of 1 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 69.80. May Euro/INR closed at 77.88, GBP/INR at 88.65 and Yen/INR at 63.27.
FII’S have nett sold Rs 3857 Cr of Indian Equities in May till date. FII’S have nett bought Rs 64815 Cr of Indian Equities in this calendar Year till date. FII’S have sold Rs 855 Cr of Indian debt securities in May. FII’S have nett sold Rs 1965 Cr of Indian debt in this calendar year till date.
Benchmark Nifty declined 1.01% y’day. DOW climbed 197 points (0.77%) y’day. Nikkei declined 0.14% and Hang seng declined 0.47% y’day.
Euro is now at 1.1160 und at 1.2715,Yen at 110.52.
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1273 and WT1Crude at USD 62.64/Brent at USD 71.83.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 2.428% and 3 m libor closed at 2.61%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.30%.
Economic news: OECD lowered global growth forecast to 3.2% in 2019, down from March projection of 3.3%. Chief Economist warned that “the fragile global economy is being destabilized by trade tensions.” On US-China trade war, OECD warned that an intensification of trade restrictions would have significant costs. The new tariffs and measures announced this month could reduce GDP growth in US and China by 0.2-0.3% on average by 2021 and 2022.
Markets await FOMC minutes.
Data highlights : – US existing home sales dipped to 5.19 m.
-EU Consumer confidence improved to -7.
Wednesday’s calendar: -UK CPI, RPI and PPI(output)
| USD/INR | 69.81 | 69.65 | |
| EUR/USD | 1.1160 | 1.1185 | 1.1142 |
| GBP/USD | 1.2715 | 1.2811 | 1.2686 |
| USD/JPY | 110.52 | 110.68 | 110.04 |
Daily Support/Resistance table
| CurrencyPairs | Pivot | R1 | R2 | R3 | S1 | S2 | S3 |
| EURO/USD | 1.1164 | 1.1186 | 1.1208 | 1.1230 | 1.1143 | 1.1120 | 1.1099 |
| GBP/USD | 1.2735 | 1.2784 | 1.2861 | 1.2910 | 1.2659 | 1.2609 | 1.2533 |
| USD/JPY | 110.43
|
110.82 | 111.07 | 111.45
|
110.18 | 109.79 | 109.54
|
| USD/INR | 69.72 | 69.80 | 69.88 | 69.63 | 69.56 |
|
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
| Curency Pair | Supports | Resistances | Trend | Remarks |
| EURO/USD | 1.1110/1.0970/1.0840 | 1.1265/1.1325 | DN | UP>1.1325 |
| GBP/USD | 1.2865 | 1.2770/1.2865/1.3175 | DN | UP>1.30 |
| USD/JPY | 108.50/107.50 | 110.85/112.40 | DN | UP>110.85 |
| USD/INR | 69.90/69.70 | 70.52/70.80 | UP | DN<69.50 |
| USD/CHF | 1.0050/0.9950 | 1.0240/1.0350 | UP | DN <0.9890 |
Technicals: Spot closed between major moving averages. 20 day moving average is at 69.84. 50 day moving average is at 69.52.200 day moving average is at 70.78. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying bottom at 69.20. Important support zone is at 69.35.Important resistance is at 70.50 and later at 70.80 .Spot closed at its average level of the day.
Intra day supports and resistances for May contract are:
PP: 69.78,S1:69.69, S2:69.61, R1:69.87, R2:69.95.
Hedging strategy for USD/INR: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is below all major moving averages. Next Major resistance is at 1.1265. Major support is at 1.1110 and later at 1.0970. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying an important top at 1.1265. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.1570.
GBP/USD: The pair has turned bearish and is trading below major moving averages.Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.3175 and weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.3385. Important resistance is at 1.2775 and later at 1.2865. Important support is at 1.2480.
USD/YEN: The pair is below major moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 112.40. Next important resistance is at 110.85 and later at 112.40. Important support is at 108.50 and later at 107.75.
