FX MORNING UPDATE 

                                                                                      

USDINR opened at 70.05 on Friday and the pair traded in the 69.77-70.07 range. Spot USDINR closed at 69.91, loss of 4 ps for USD as against prior close of 69.95. RBI reference rate was fixed at 69.92.  May USD/INR closed at 70.05, loss of 6 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 70.11. May Euro/INR closed at 78.80, GBP/INR at 91.18 and Yen/INR at 63.87. Rupee declined as Global markets are rocked by US-China trade issues.

FII’S have nett bought  Rs 2257 Cr of Indian Equities in May. FII’S have nett bought Rs 70316 Cr of Indian Equities in this calendar Year till date. FII’S have sold Rs 3794 Cr of Indian debt securities in May. FII’S have nett sold Rs 4904 Cr of Indian debt in this calendar year till date.

Benchmark Nifty declined 0.20% on Friday. DOW climbed 114 points (0.44%) on Friday. Nikkei declined 0.27% and Hang seng climbed 0.84% y’day..

Euro is now at 1.1235, Pound at 1.3003,Yen at 109.97.    

Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1286 and WT1Crude at USD 61.73/Brent at USD 70.80.

Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 2.45% and 3 m libor closed at 2.61%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.41%.        

Economic news: Indian IIP contracted -0.1% in March and mfrg output declined -0.4% in March. For the full 2018-19 fiscal, IIP climbed 3.6%. Capital Goods sector declined -8.7%, consumer durables declined by -5.1%, mining grew by 0.8%, electricity generation climbed 2.2%. Car sales grew only by 2.7% in 2018-19, the worst in 5 years.

                                                                                                                       

US President tweeted again saying that he is no rush to conclude trade deal with China and he would be using tariff of USD 100 bn to buy US farm produce and improve infrastructure. US Equity markets recovered on Friday close after steep decline following last Friday’s negative development on trade issue.     

UK GDP grew 0.5% qoq in Q1, up from Q4’s 0.2% qoq and matched expectations. Annually, GDP grew 1.8% yoy, up from Q4’s 1.4%.

Data highlights : – US CPI climbed less than expected by 0.3% m/m.

-UK GDP contracted -0.1% m/m, Industrial production climbed 0.7% m/m and manufacturing production climbed 0.9% m/m

Monday’s calendar: – No major data.                                                         

USD/INR   70.07 69.77
EUR/USD 1.1235 1.1255 1.1214
GBP/USD 1.3003 1.3049 1.2991
USD/JPY 109.97 110.05 109.47

Daily Support/Resistance table

CurrencyPairs Pivot R1 R2 R3 S1 S2 S3
EURO/USD 1.1234 1.1255  1.1276    1.1213 1.1192  
GBP/USD 1.3014 1.3037  1.3072    1.2979 1.2956  
USD/JPY 109.83

 

110.19  110.41  

 

 109.61 109.25  

 

USD/INR 69.91 70.06 70.21   69.75 69.61  

 

MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE

Curency Pair Supports Resistances Trend Remarks
EURO/USD 1.1110/1.0970/1.0840 1.1325/1.1450 DN UP>1.1325
GBP/USD 1.2865 1.3185/1.3385 UP DN<1.2865
USD/JPY 109.75 112.40/113.20 UP DN<109.75
USD/INR 69.20 70.30 DN UP>70.30
USD/CHF 1.0125/1.0050 1.0240/1.0350 UP  DN <0.9890

Technicals: Spot closed below 200 day moving averages. 20 day moving average is at 69.54. 50 day moving average is at 69.64.200 day moving average is at 70.30. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying bottom at 69.20. Important support zone is at 69.20.Important resistances are at 70.30 and later at 70.70.Spot closed at its average level of the day.  

Intra day supports and resistances for May contract are:

PP: 70.06,S1:69.89, S2:69.74, R1:70.21, R2:70.38.                                                         

Hedging strategy for USD/INR: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.

CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:

EURO/USD: The pair is below all major moving averages. Next Major resistance is at 1.1325. Major support is at 1.1110 and later at 1.0970. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying an important bottom at 1.1110. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.1570.

GBP/USD: The pair has turned bullish and is trading above major moving averages.Daily MACD  is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.2865 and weekly MACD is  in sell zone, implying important top at 1.3385. Important resistance is at 1.3180 and later at 1.3385. Important support is at 1.2865.

USD/YEN: The pair is below  major moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 112.40. Next important resistance is at 112.40 and later at 113.20. Important support is at 109.75.                

 

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