FX MORNING UPDATE

                                                                                       

USDINR opened at 69.37 y’day and the pair traded in the 69.32-69.47 range. Spot USDINR closed at 69.40, gain of 18 ps for USD as against prior close of 69.22. RBI reference rate was fixed at 69.35.  May USD/INR closed at 69.61, gain of 14 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 69.47. May Euro/INR closed at 78.14, GBP/INR at 91.28 and Yen/INR at 62.93. Rupee declined tracking Yuan’s fall.

FII’S have invested  Rs 545 Cr in Indian Equities in May. FII’S have nett bought Rs 68604 Cr of Indian Equities in this calendar Year till date. FII’S have sold Rs 131 Cr of Indian debt securities in May. FII’S have nett sold Rs 1241 Cr of Indian debt in this calendar year till date.

Benchmark Nifty declined 0.97% y’day. DOW climbed 197 points (0.75%) on Friday. Hang seng declined 2.9% y’day..

Euro is now at 1.1205, Pound at 1.3115,Yen at 110.64.    

Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1283 and WT1Crude at USD 62.18/Brent at USD 71.10.

Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 2.53% and 3 m libor closed at 2.61%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.40%.        

Economic news: Global stocks slumped, Chinese Yuan declined over 1% as US President made a U-turn on trade talks and announced that he would impose 25% tariff on Chinese imports of USD 200 bn by Friday and consider tariff of 25% on further Chinese imports worth USD 300 bn. US President had been claiming that trade talks are progressing well and a deal is close by. The latest stand has perplexed markets and a counter action from China is expected. It remains to be seen as to whether this is a bargaining stand by US to push China for early conclusion of trade issues.                                                                        

Data highlights : – EU sentix investor confidence climbed to 5.3, retail sales was flat and PMI(services) was finalized at 52.8.       

Tuesday’s calendar: – German factory orders

USD/INR   69.42 69.20
EUR/USD 1.1205 1.1211 1.1179
GBP/USD 1.3115 1.3150 1.3081
USD/JPY 110.64 110.96 110.29

Daily Support/Resistance table

CurrencyPairs Pivot R1 R2 R3 S1 S2 S3
EURO/USD 1.1197 1.1215 1.1228 1.1246 1.1183 1.1166 1.1152
GBP/USD 1.3110 1.3139 1.3179 1.3208 1.3070 1.3041 1.3001
USD/JPY 110.69

 

111.09 111.35 111.75

 

110.42 110.03 109.76

 

USD/INR 69.40 69.47 69.55   69.33 69.25  

 

MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE

Curency Pair Supports Resistances Trend Remarks
EURO/USD 1.1110/1.0970/1.0840 1.1325/1.1450 DN UP>1.1325
GBP/USD 1.2865 1.3220/1.3385 UP DN<1.2865
USD/JPY 110.85/109.75 112.40/113.20 UP DN<109.75
USD/INR 68.80/68.30 69.75/70.30 DN UP>70.30
USD/CHF 1.0125/1.0050 1.0240/1.0350 UP  DN <0.9890

Technicals: Spot closed below 100 and 200 day moving averages. 20 day moving average is at 69.40. 50 day moving average is at 69.63.200 day moving average is at 70.30. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying top at 70.30. Important support zone is at 68.30.Important resistances are at 70.30 and later at 70.70.Spot closed at its average level of the day.  

Intra day supports and resistances for May contract are:

PP: 69.61,S1:69.53, S2:69.45, R1:69.69, R2:69.74.                                                         

Hedging strategy for USD/INR: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.

CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:

EURO/USD: The pair is below all major moving averages. Next Major resistance is at 1.1325. Major support is at 1.1110 and later at 1.0970. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying an important top at 1.1325. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.1570.

GBP/USD: The pair has turned bullish and is trading above major moving averages.Daily MACD  is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.2865 and weekly MACD is  in sell zone, implying important top at 1.3385. Important resistance is at 1.3220 and later at 1.3385. Important support is at 1.2865.

USD/YEN: The pair is between  major moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 112.40. Next important resistance is at 112.40 and later at 113.20. Important support is at 110.85 and later at 109.75.

 

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