15/05/2018
FX MORNING UPDATE
USDINR opened at 67.24 Y’day and the pair traded in the 67.21-67.62 range. Spot USDINR closed at 67.51, gain of 19 ps for USD as against prior close of 67.32.RBI reference rate was fixed at 67.31. Heavy Dollar purchases and sustained outflows from debt and Equity markets, triggered yet another day’s fall. Rupee is one of the worst EM Currency performers this Year. Rupee has fallen 4.5% in last 3 months. Higher Crude prices, current account deficit and expansion in fiscal deficit have all contributed to Rupee’s fall. May USD/INR closed at 67.63, gain of 19ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 67.44. May Euro/INR closed at 81.10, GBP/INR at 91.96 and Yen/INR at 61.76.
FII’S sold Rs 1535 Cr of Indian Equities in May till date . FII’S also sold 6460 Cr of Indian debt securities in May . On a cumulative basis, FII’S have bought Rupees 6879 Cr of Indian Equities till date for this calendar year and have sold Rupees 20229 Cr of Indian debt in this calendar year till date.
Benchmark Nifty closed flat y’day. DOW climbed 68 points (0.27%) y’day.Nikkei climbed 0.47% and Hang seng climbed 1.35% y’day.
Euro is now at 1.1934 , Pound at 1.3567,Yen at 109.76.
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1314 and WT1Crude at USD 71.04.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 2.99% and 3 m libor closed at 2.36%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.83%.
Economic news: Indian April CPI edged higher to 4.58%. vs 4.28% in March. Food inflation remained steady ay 2.8%. Euro jumped as French central bank Governor and ECB Governing council member said that time to end asset purchase is approaching fast.
Data Highlights: – No major releases.
Tuesday’s calendar: – US retail sales, Ny mfrg index
-EU GDP, industrial production and German Zew survey
-UK unemployment rate and claimant count change.
| USD/INR | 67.62 | 67.21 | |
| EUR/USD | 1.1934 | 1.1996 | 1.1923 |
| GBP/USD | 1.3567 | 1.3607 | 1.3544 |
| USD/JPY | 109.76 | 109.75 | 109.21 |
Daily Support/Resistance table
| CurrencyPairs | Pivot | R1 | R2 | R3 | S1 | S2 | S3 |
| EURO/USD | 1.1950 | 1.1977 | 1.2023 | 1.2050 | 1.1904 | 1.1877 | 1.1831 |
| GBP/USD | 1.3571 | 1.3598 | 1.3634 | 1.3661 | 1.3535 | 1.3508 | 1.3472 |
| USD/JPY | 109.56
|
109.91 | 110.10 | 110.45
|
109.37 | 109.02 | 108.83
|
| USD/INR | 67.45 | 67.68 | 67.86 | 67.28 | 67.04 |
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
| Curency Pair | Supports | Resistances | Trend | Remarks |
| EURO/USD | 1.1710 | 1.2150/1.2210 | DN | UP>1.2210 |
| GBP/USD | 1.3460/1.33 | 1.3710/1.3965 | DN | UP>1.3965 |
| USD/JPY | 108/107 | 110 | UP | SIDE<108 |
| USD/INR | 67.10 | 68.80 | UP | SIDE<67.10 |
| USD/CHF | 0.9735/0.9575 | 1.0040 | UP | DN <0.9575 |
Technicals: Spot closed above 100 and 200 day major moving averages. 20 day moving is at 66.54. 50 day moving average is at 65.58. 200 day moving average is at 64.66. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying bottom at 64.85 . Important support zone is at 67.10 and later at 66.50. Important resistance is at 68.80. Spot closed above its average level of the day.
Intra day supports and resistances for May contract are:
PP: 67.55,S1:67.37, S2:67.12, R1:67.80, R2:67.98
Hedging strategy for USD/INR: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is below all major moving averages. Next Major resistance is at 1.2150 and later at 1.2210. Major support is at 1.1710. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying an important top at 1.2415. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.2560.
GBP/USD: Trend is bearish in daily chart. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.4375 and weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.4375. The pair is trading below all major moving average. Important resistance is at 1.3710 and later at 1.3965. Important support is at 1.3460 and later at 1.33.
USD/YEN: The pair is below 200 day major moving average, but above 50 and 100 day moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 110.05. Important support is at 108. Important resistance is 110.
