FX MORNING UPDATE 

                                                                                      

USDINR opened at 69.75 Y’day and the pair traded in the 69.75-69.98 range. Spot USDINR closed at 69.87, gain of 24 ps for USD as against prior close of 69.63. RBI reference rate was fixed at 69.90.  April USD/INR closed at 69.90, gain of 23 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 69.67. April Euro/INR closed at 78.37, GBP/INR at 90.49 and Yen/INR at 62.55. Rupee declined on broad USD strength against majors.

FII’S have invested  Rs 14300 Cr in Indian Equities in April. FII’S have nett bought Rs 62240 Cr of Indian Equities in this calendar Year till date. FII’S have sold Rs 3288 Cr of Indian debt securities in April. FII’S have nett bought Rs 172 Cr of Indian debt in this calendar year till date. FII’S have nett invested Rs 9685 Cr in Equities in 2018-19 fiscal, with most of the investment coming in Feb and March 2019. FII’S have nett sold Rs 45892 Cr in debt papers in 2018-19 fiscal.

Benchmark Nifty climbed 1.30% Y’day. DOW declined 59 points (0.22%) Y’day. Asian markets are trading mixed today.

Euro is now at 1.1159, Pound at 1.2909,Yen at 111.95.    

Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1271 and WT1Crude at USD 65.75/Brent at USD 74.56.

Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 2.52% and 3 m libor closed at 2.61%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.43%.        

Economic news: US Crude outputut rose by more than 2 million barrell per day to a record 12.2 mbpd, making it the third largest Oil producer. Rising Crude inventory and higher output could balance the shortfall of Iran Oil supply to Global energy market. Euro was pressured and is trading close to 1.1150 as German Ifo survey added to gloomy economic outlook.                                                                                                                                     

Data highlights : German Ifo survey dipped to 99.2.

Thursday’s calendar: – US durables order and weekly jobless claims.

USD/INR   69.98 69.75
EUR/USD 1.1159 1.1224 1.1141
GBP/USD 1.2909 1.2964 1.2889
USD/JPY 111.95 112.41 111.68

Daily Support/Resistance table

CurrencyPairs Pivot R1 R2 R3 S1 S2 S3
EURO/USD 1.1173 1.1205 1.1257 1.1289 1.1122 1.1089 1.1038
GBP/USD 1.2919 1.2949 1.2993 1.3023 1.2874 1.2845 1.2800
USD/JPY 112.07

 

112.46 112.80 113.18

 

111.73 111.34 111

 

USD/INR 69.86 69.98 70.10   69.74 69.62  

 

MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE

Curency Pair Supports Resistances Trend Remarks
EURO/USD 1.1175 1.1325/1.1450 DN UP>1.1520
GBP/USD 1.2950 1.3390/1.3575 UP DN<1.2950
USD/JPY 110.85/109.75 112.20/113.20 UP DN<109.75
USD/INR 69.30 70.30/70.70 SIDE DN<69.30
USD/CHF 0.9890 1.0150 UP  DN <0.9890

Technicals: Spot closed below major moving averages. 20 day moving average is at 69.22. 50 day moving average is at 69.98.200 day moving average is at 70.66. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying bottom at 68.30. Important support zone is at 68.30.Important resistances are at 69.85 and later at 70.30.Spot closed below its average level of the day.  

Intra day supports and resistances for April contract are:

PP: 69.85,S1:69.67, S2:69.43, R1:70.08, R2:70.27.                                                          

Hedging strategy for USD/INR: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.

CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:

EURO/USD: The pair is below all major moving averages. Next Major resistance is at 1.1450. Major support is at 1.1170. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying an important bottom at 1.1175. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.1570.

GBP/USD: The pair is sideways and trading between major moving averages.Daily MACD  is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.3385 and weekly MACD is  in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.2440. Important resistance is at 1.3385 and later at 1.3575. Important support is at 1.2950.

USD/YEN: The pair is above  major moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 109.75. Next important resistance is at 112.10 and later at 114. Important support is at 110.85 and later at 109.75.

 

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