FX MORNING UPDATE   

24/04/2019

                                                                                  

USDINR opened at 69.60 Y’day and the pair traded in the 69.53-69.83 range. Spot USDINR closed at 69.63, loss of 4 ps for USD as against prior close of 69.67. RBI reference rate was fixed at 69.74.  April USD/INR closed at 69.69, loss of 2 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 69.71. April Euro/INR closed at 78.47, GBP/INR at 90.70 and Yen/INR at 62.36.

FII’S have invested  Rs 14300 Cr in Indian Equities in April. FII’S have nett bought Rs 62240 Cr of Indian Equities in this calendar Year till date. FII’S have sold Rs 3288 Cr of Indian debt securities in April. FII’S have nett bought Rs 172 Cr of Indian debt in this calendar year till date. FII’S have nett invested Rs 9685 Cr in Equities in 2018-19 fiscal, with most of the investment coming in Feb and March 2019. FII’S have nett sold Rs 45892 Cr in debt papers in 2018-19 fiscal.

Benchmark Nifty declined 0.16% Y’day. DOW climbed 145 points (0.55%) Y’day. Nikkei climbed 0.19% and Hang Seng was flat y’day.

Euro is now at 1.1213, Pound at 1.2932,Yen at 111.89.     

Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1271 and WT1Crude at USD 65.91/Brent at USD 74.09.

Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 2.57% and 3 m libor closed at 2.61%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.47%.   

Economic news: USD fwd premia rallied to 4.42% for 1 year even as RBI conducted USD buy/sell swap of 5 bn. Oil price remains elevated due to US decision not to grant further sanction waiver of Iran Oil purchases by India and seven other countries. 

Data highlights : US existing home sales dipped to 5.21 mn. New home sales climbed to 692k.

Wednesday’s calendar: – German Ifo survey.

USD/INR   69.83 69.53
EUR/USD 1.1213 1.1262 1.1192
GBP/USD 1.2932 1.3018 1.2929
USD/JPY 111.89 112.04 111.65

Daily Support/Resistance table

CurrencyPairs

Pivot

R1

R2

R3

S1

S2

S3

EURO/USD

1.1226

1.1260

1.1296

1.1330

1.1190

1.156

1.1121

GBP/USD

1.2962

1.2995

1.3052

1.3085

1.2906

1.2872

1.2816

USD/JPY

111.86

 

112.07

112.24

112.45

 

111.68

111.48

111.30

 

USD/INR

69.66

69.79

69.96

 

69.49

69.36

 

 

MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE

Curency Pair

Supports

Resistances

Trend

Remarks

EURO/USD

1.1175

1.1325/1.1450

DN

UP>1.1520

GBP/USD

1.2950

1.3390/1.3575

UP

DN<1.2950

USD/JPY

110.85/109.75

112.20/113.20

UP

DN<109.75

USD/INR

68.30

69.80/70.40

DN

SIDE>70.40

USD/CHF

0.9890

1.0150

UP

 DN <0.9890

Technicals: Spot closed below major moving averages. 20 day moving average is at 69.17. 50 day moving average is at 69.98.200 day moving average is at 70.66. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying bottom at 68.30. Important support zone is at 68.30.Important resistances are at 69.85 and later at 70.30.Spot closed below its average level of the day.  

Intra day supports and resistances for April contract are:

PP: 69.74,S1:69.56, S2:69.43, R1:69.87, R2:70.05.                                                         

Hedging strategy for USD/INR: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.

CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:

EURO/USDThe pair is below all major moving averages. Next Major resistance is at 1.1450. Major support is at 1.1170. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying an important bottom at 1.1175. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.1570.

GBP/USD: The pair is sideways and trading between major moving averages.Daily MACD  is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.3385 and weekly MACD is  in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.2440. Important resistance is at 1.3385 and later at 1.3575. Important support is at 1.2950.

USD/YEN: The pair is above  major moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 109.75. Next important resistance is at 112.10 and later at 114. Important support is at 110.85 and later at 109.75.

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