FX MORNING UPDATE
USDINR opened at 67.15 on Friday and the pair traded in the 67.10-67.37 range. Spot USDINR closed at 67.32, gain of 2 ps for USD as against prior close of 67.30.RBI reference rate was fixed at 67.22. May USD/INR closed at 67.44, unchanged for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 67.44. May Euro/INR closed at 80.56, GBP/INR at 91.58 and Yen/INR at 61.73.
FII’S sold Rs 1535 Cr of Indian Equities in May till date . FII’S also sold 6460 Cr of Indian debt securities in May . On a cumulative basis, FII’S have bought Rupees 6879 Cr of Indian Equities till date for this calendar year and have sold Rupees 20229 Cr of Indian debt in this calendar year till date.
Benchmark Nifty climbed 0.84% on Friday. DOW climbed 91 points (0.37%) on Friday.Nikkei climbed 1.16% and Hang seng climbed 1.02% on Friday.
Euro is now at 1.1941 , Pound at 1.3543,Yen at 109.40
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1310 and WT1Crude at USD 70.52.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 2.97% and 3 m libor closed at 2.36%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.73%.
Economic news: Indian IIP growth slowed to 4.4% in March as agaisnt prior month’s downwardly revised 7% growth. IIP for the last full fiscal stands at 4.3%, lower than 2016-2017 data of 4.6%. Mfrg sector grew 4.4%, mining 2.8% consumer non durables grew by 10.9% , consumer non durables grew by 2.9%, Capital Goods declined 1.9%.
Rating agency Fitch said that Indian economy is poised to grow at 7.3% in this fiscal and 7.5% in next fiscal.
Data Highlights: – No major releases.
Monday’s calendar: – No major releases
| USD/INR | 67.37 | 67.10 | |
| EUR/USD | 1.1941 | 1.1967 | 1.1892 |
| GBP/USD | 1.3543 | 1.3595 | 1.3502 |
| USD/JPY | 109.40 | 109.57 | 109.16 |
Daily Support/Resistance table
| CurrencyPairs | Pivot | R1 | R2 | R3 | S1 | S2 | S3 |
| EURO/USD | 1.1933 | 1.1974 | 1.2008 | 1.1899 | 1.1858 | ||
| GBP/USD | 1.3546 | 1.3591 | 1.3640 | 1.3497 | 1.3452 | ||
| USD/JPY | 109.37
|
109.59 | 109.79 |
|
109.17 | 108.95 |
|
| USD/INR | 67.26 | 67.42 | 67.53 | 67.15 | 66.99 |
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
| Curency Pair | Supports | Resistances | Trend | Remarks |
| EURO/USD | 1.1710 | 1.2150/1.2210 | DN | UP>1.2210 |
| GBP/USD | 1.3460/1.33 | 1.3710/1.3965 | DN | UP>1.3965 |
| USD/JPY | 108/107 | 110 | UP | SIDE<108 |
| USD/INR | 66.94/66.50 | 67.45 | UP | SIDE<66.94 |
| USD/CHF | 0.9735/0.9575 | 1.0040 | UP | DN <0.9575 |
Technicals: Spot closed above 100 and 200 day major moving averages. 20 day moving is at 66.43. 50 day moving average is at 65.58. 200 day moving average is at 64.66. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying bottom at 64.85 . Important support zone is at 66.94 and later at 66.50. Important resistance is at 67.45. Spot closed above its average level of the day.
Intra day supports and resistances for May contract are:
PP: 67.39,S1:67.28, S2:67.12, R1:67.55, R2:67.66
Hedging strategy for USD/INR: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is below all major moving averages. Next Major resistance is at 1.2150 and later at 1.2210. Major support is at 1.1710. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying an important top at 1.2415. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.2560.
GBP/USD: Trend is bearish in daily chart. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.4375 and weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.4375. The pair is trading below all major moving average. Important resistance is at 1.3710 and later at 1.3965. Important support is at 1.3460 and later at 1.33.
USD/YEN: The pair is below 200 day major moving average, but above 50 and 100 day moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 110.05. Important support is at 108. Important resistance is 110.
