FX MORNING UPDATE     

                                                                                  

USDINR opened at 69.34 y’day and the pair traded in the 69.34-69.72 range. Spot USDINR closed at 69.67, gain of 45 ps for USD as against prior close of 69.22. RBI reference rate was fixed at 69.54. April USD/INR closed at 69.51, loss of 35 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 69.86. April Euro/INR closed at 78.53, GBP/INR at 91 and Yen/INR at 62.56.

FII’S have invested  Rs 8989 Cr in Indian Equities in April. FII’S have nett bought Rs 56929 Cr of Indian Equities in this calendar Year till date. FII’S have sold Rs 355 Cr of Indian debt securities in April. FII’S have nett bought Rs 3105 Cr of Indian debt in this calendar year till date. FII’S have nett invested Rs 9685 Cr in Equities in 2018-19 fiscal, with most of the investment coming in Feb and March 2019. FII’S have nett sold Rs 45892 Cr in debt papers in 2018-19 fiscal.

Benchmark Nifty climbed 0.58% y’day. DOW declined 190 points (0.72%) y’day. Nikkei climbed 0.19% and Hang Seng climbed 0.27% y’day.

Euro is now at 1.1260, Pound at 1.3054,Yen at 111.17.    

Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1305 and WT1Crude at USD 64.10/Brent at USD 70.63.

Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 2.52% and 3 m libor closed at 2.61%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.38%.        

Economic news: IMF downgraded Global growth rate to 3.3% from 3.6% for this year. US is expected to grow at 2.3% and EU at 1.3%. China is expected to grow at 6.3%. India is expected to grow at 7.3%. US President tweeted his intention to escalate trade issues with EU.

Data highlights : No major data release.

                                                                                                                         

Wednesday’s calendar: – US CPI and FOMC minutes

-UK industrial production, manufacturing production and GDP

USD/INR   69.73 69.25
EUR/USD 1.1260 1.1286 1.1256
GBP/USD 1.3054 1.3120 1.3031
USD/JPY 111.17 111.57 110.99

Daily Support/Resistance table

CurrencyPairs Pivot R1 R2 R3 S1 S2 S3
EURO/USD 1.1269 1.1282 1.1299 1.1312 1.1252 1.1239 1.1223
GBP/USD 1.3069 1.3107 1.3158 1.3197 1.3018 1.2980 1.2928
USD/JPY 111.21

 

111.43 111.80 112.02

 

110.85 110.62 110.26

 

USD/INR 69.42 69.59 69.90   69.11 68.94  

 

MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE

Curency Pair Supports Resistances Trend Remarks
EURO/USD 1.1175 1.1450 DN UP>1.1520
GBP/USD 1.2950 1.3390/1.3575 UP DN<1.2950
USD/JPY 109.70 112.10 DN UP>112.10
USD/INR 68.30 69.70/70.40 DN SIDE>70.40
USD/CHF 0.9890 1.00/1.0150 SIDE  DN <0.9890

                                                                                                                                            

Technicals: Spot closed below major moving averages. 20 day moving average is at 69.12. 50 day moving average is at 70.27. 200 day moving average is at 70.62. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying bottom at 68.30. Important support zone is at 68.30.Important resistances are at 69.70 and later at 70.30.Spot closed below its average level of the day.  

Intra day supports and resistances for April contract are:

PP: 69.63,S1:69.28, S2:69.07, R1:69.85, R2:70.19.                                                         

Hedging strategy for USD/INR: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.

CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:

EURO/USD: The pair is below all major moving averages. Next Major resistance is at 1.1450. Major support is at 1.1170. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying an important top at 1.1450. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.1570.

GBP/USD: The pair is sideways and trading between major moving averages.Daily MACD  is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.3385 and weekly MACD is  in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.2440. Important resistance is at 1.3385 and later at 1.3575. Important support is at 1.2950.

USD/YEN: The pair is above  major moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 109.75. Next important resistance is at 112.10. Important support is at 109.75 and later at 108.50.

 

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