FX MORNING UPDATE             

                                                                    

USDINR opened at 68.53 y’day and the pair traded in the 68.52-69.20 range. Spot USDINR closed at 69.16, gain of 74 ps for USD as against prior close of 68.42. RBI reference rate was fixed at 68.84. April USD/INR closed at 69.42, gain of 56 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 68.86. April Euro/INR closed at 78.09, GBP/INR at 91.28 and Yen/INR at 62.41.

FII’S have invested  Rs 9193 Cr in Indian Equities in April. FII’S have nett bought Rs 57133 Cr of Indian Equities in this calendar Year till date. FII’S have invested Rs 1086 Cr of Indian debt securities in April. FII’S have nett bought Rs 4546 Cr of Indian debt in this calendar year till date. FII’S have nett invested Rs 9685 Cr in Equities in 2018-19 fiscal, with most of the investment coming in Feb and March 2019. FII’S have nett sold Rs 45892 Cr in debt papers in 2018-19 fiscal.

Benchmark Nifty declined 0.39% y’day. DOW climbed 166 points (0.64%) y’day. Nikkei climbed 0.05% and Hang Seng declined 0.17% y’day.

Euro is now at 1.1225, Pound at 1.3077,Yen at 111.68.    

Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1294 and WT1Crude at USD 62.06/Brent at USD 69.19.

Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 2.51% and 3 m libor closed at 2.61%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.35%.        

Economic news: RBI cut rates by 25 bps and maintained neutral stance. FY 20 GDP is expected to be 7.2% and H1 FY 20 inflation is expected to be between 2.9% and 3.2% and H2 FY20 inflation is expected to be 3.4-3.8%. RBI Governor said that high frequency indicators points to sluggish growth and weak investment demand.

Bank credit grew by 12.4%, but was not broad based. FX reserves stands at USD 412.7 bn. Trade deficit shrunk to 17 month low in Feb. FDI inflows is robust. Fiscal situation calls for monitoring. Global trade war and Crude prices poses risk to Global and Indian growth rate.

Data highlights : – US Weekly jobless claims dipped to 202k.

-German factory orders declined -4.2% m/m.       

Friday’s calendar: – US nonfarm payrolls

USD/INR   69.20 68.52
EUR/USD 1.1225 1.1250 1.1207
GBP/USD 1.3077 1.3191 1.3060
USD/JPY 111.68 111.69 111.33

Daily Support/Resistance table

CurrencyPairs Pivot R1 R2 R3 S1 S2 S3
EURO/USD 1.1227 1.1247 1.1270 1.1290 1.1204 1.1184 1.1161
GBP/USD 1.3108 1.3156 1.3239 1.3287 1.3025 1.2977 1.2894
USD/JPY 111.56

 

111.79 111.92 112.14

 

111.43 111.20 111.07

 

USD/INR 68.96 69.40 69.64   68.72 68.28  

 

                                                                                                                                  

MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE

Curency Pair Supports Resistances Trend Remarks
EURO/USD 1.1175 1.1450 DN UP>1.1520
GBP/USD 1.2950 1.3390/1.3575 UP DN<1.2950
USD/JPY 108.50/107.80 112.10 DN UP>112.10
USD/INR 68.30 69.70 DN SIDE>70.40
USD/CHF 0.9890 1.00/1.0150 SIDE  DN <0.9890

Technicals: Spot closed below all major moving averages. 20 day moving average is at 69.24. 50 day moving average is at 70.40. 200 day moving average is at 70.52. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying bottom at 68.30. Important support zone is at 68.30.Important resistances are at 69.35 and later at 69.70.Spot closed above its average level of the day.  

Intra day supports and resistances for April contract are:

PP: 69.23,S1:69.01, S2:68.61, R1:69.63, R2:69.85.                                                          

Hedging strategy for USD/INR: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.

CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:

EURO/USD: The pair is below all major moving averages. Next Major resistance is at 1.1450. Major support is at 1.1170. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying an important top at 1.1450. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.1570.

GBP/USD: The pair is sideways and trading between major moving averages.Daily MACD  is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.3385 and weekly MACD is  in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.2440. Important resistance is at 1.3385 and later at 1.3575. Important support is at 1.2950.

USD/YEN: The pair is between  major moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 112.10. Next important resistance is at 112.10. Important support is at 109.75 and later at 108.50.                

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