FX MORNING UPDATE  

                                                      

USDINR opened at 68.81 y’day and the pair traded in the 68.39-68.84 range. Spot USDINR closed at 68.42, loss of 32 ps for USD as against prior close of 68.74. RBI reference rate was fixed at 68.49. April USD/INR closed at 68.86, loss of 36 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 69.22. April Euro/INR closed at 77.67, GBP/INR at 90.77 and Yen/INR at 61.91.

FII’S have invested  Rs 33116 Cr in Indian Equities in March. FII’S have nett bought Rs 47195 Cr of Indian Equities in this calendar Year till date. FII’S have invested Rs 15351 Cr of Indian debt securities in March. FII’S have nett bought Rs 3460 Cr of Indian debt in this calendar year till date. FII’S have nett invested Rs 9685 Cr in Equities in 2018-19 fiscal, with most of the investment coming in Feb and March 2019. FII’S have nett sold Rs 45892 Cr in debt papers in 2018-19 fiscal.

Benchmark Nifty declined 0.59% y’day. DOW declined 79 points (0.13%) y’day. Nikkei climbed 0.97% and Hang Seng climbed 1.22% y’day.

Euro is now at 1.1241, Pound at 1.3177,Yen at 111.44.    

Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1295 and WT1Crude at USD 62.45/Brent at USD 69.40.

Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 2.48% and 3 m libor closed at 2.61%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.27%.        

Economic news: USDINR Spot was volatile and fwds climbed higher. Cash spot discount was wide. This is abnormal trading. RBI’S move to infuse liquidity through USD buy/sell swaps and requirement for Rupee liquidity have played havoc in interbank fx market as spot, fwds and discounts were all unsettled for the third consecutive session. April fwds climbed to 48 ps, even as spot swung in the 68.35-68.85 zone.                                                              

1 year fwd premia rose back to 3.95% from 3.6% last week. 6 month premia was even higher at 4.5% annualised. Expect normalcy to return sooner than later. RBI is expected to cut rates by 25 bps on April 4 th. Rupee has gained despite climb in crude as this negative effect was nullified by robust inflows and climb in March exports. Expect USDINR to trade in the 68.10- 69.20 zone in coming sessions.                                                                                                  

Data highlights : – US ADP employment report showed that only 129 k jobs were added by private sector last month and ISM(non mfrg) dipped to 56.1.

-EU PMI(services) climbed to 53.3  and retail sales climbed 0.4% m/m.

-UK PMI(services) declined to 48.9.            

Thursday’s calendar: – US Weekly jobless claims

-German factory orders                   

USD/INR   68.84 68.39
EUR/USD 1.1241 1.1255 1.1202
GBP/USD 1.3177 1.3197 1.3123
USD/JPY 111.44 111.58 111.21

Daily Support/Resistance table

CurrencyPairs Pivot R1 R2 R3 S1 S2 S3
EURO/USD 1.1234 1.1266 1.1287 1.1319 1.1213 1.1181 1.1160
GBP/USD 1.3165 1.3207 1.3239 1.3282 1.3133 1.3091 1.3059
USD/JPY 111.39

 

111.57 111.76 111.94

 

111.20 111.02 110.83

 

USD/INR 68.55 68.71 69   68.26 68.10  

 

MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE

Curency Pair Supports Resistances Trend Remarks
EURO/USD 1.1175 1.1450 DN UP>1.1520
GBP/USD 1.2950 1.3390/1.3575 UP DN<1.2950
USD/JPY 108.50/107.80 112.10 DN UP>112.10
USD/INR 68.30 69.70 DN SIDE>70.40
USD/CHF 0.9890 1.00/1.0150 SIDE  DN <0.9890

Technicals: Spot closed below all major moving averages. 20 day moving average is at 69.30. 50 day moving average is at 70.43. 200 day moving average is at 70.52. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying top at 69.35. Important support zone is at 68.30.Important resistances are at 69.35 and later at 69.70.Spot closed below its average level of the day.  

Intra day supports and resistances for April contract are:

PP: 68.95,S1:68.71, S2:68.56, R1:69.10, R2:69.34.                                                         

Hedging strategy for USD/INR: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.

CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:

EURO/USD: The pair is below all major moving averages. Next Major resistance is at 1.1450. Major support is at 1.1170. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying an important top at 1.1450. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.1570.

GBP/USD: The pair is sideways and trading between major moving averages.Daily MACD  is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.3385 and weekly MACD is  in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.2440. Important resistance is at 1.3385 and later at 1.3575. Important support is at 1.2950.

USD/YEN: The pair is between  major moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 112.10. Next important resistance is at 112.10. Important support is at 109.75 and later at 108.50.

 

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