• By Goodwill
  • No Comments
  • October 4, 2024

FX – MORNING UPDATE :

USDINR opened at 83.90 y’day and the pair traded in the 83.90-83.98 range. Spot USDINR closed at 83.98, gain of 15 ps for USD as against prior close of 83.83.

RBI reference rate was fixed at 83.95 on 03/10Oct USD/INR closed at 84.05, gain of 12 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 83.93. Oct Euro/INR closed at 92.91, GBP/INR at 110.15 and Yen/INR at 57.67 . 1 year USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 2.39% p.a.  FX reserves stood at USD 692.3 bn, as on Sep 20 th. Reserves climbed US D 2.8 bn w/w.

PAIRS

RBI REF RATE (03/10)

USDINR

83.95

EURINR

92.60

GBPINR

110.59

JPYINR

57.24

In Sep , FPI’S have bought Rs 55855 Cr of Equities and bought Rs 708 Cr of debt . In FY 23-24, FII’S have net bought Rs 206279 Cr of Equities and have net bought Rs 123120 Cr of debt.

Benchmark Nifty declined 546 points (2.12%) y’day. US S&P declined 9 points (0.17%) y’day. Nikkei climbed 2.01% and Hang Seng declined 1.47% y’day..

Euro is now at 1.1033, Pound at 1.3128, Yen at 146.61.

Commodities: Gold is now at USD 2657 and WT1Crude at USD 74/Brent at USD 77.50.

Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 3.84% and 3 m libor closed at 4.96%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 6.86%.

Economic news: US ISM Services index stepped up in September, registering 54.9, up from 51.5 in August and well ahead of the 51.7 print expected. This is the third consecutive month of improvement and the strongest print since February 2023.

Sterling fell sharply after BoE Governor Andrew Bailey surprised markets by suggesting the possibility of aggressive rate cuts.

US NFP is the focus data event for the day.

Data highlights: – US Weekly jobless claims was reported at 225k, ISM (services) was stroger than expected at 54.9. Factory orders declined -0.2% m/m.

-EU PMI(services) was finalized at 51.3 and PPI climbed 0.6% m/m.

-UK PMI(services) was finalized at 52.4.

Friday’s calendar : US NFP

-UK PMI(construction)

USD/INR

 

 

 83.98

83.90

EUR/USD

1.1033

 

1.1047

1.1008

GBP/USD

1.3128

 

1.3265

1.3092

USD/JPY

146.66

 

147.24

146.34

 Daily Support/Resistance table

Currency Pairs

Pivot

R1

R2

R3

S1

S2

S3

EURO/USD

1.1030

1.1052

1.1069

1.1091

1.1013

1.0991

1.0974

USD/JPY

146.80

147.30

147.74

148.23

146.36

145.86

145.42

GBP/USD

1.3162

1.3232

1.3335

1.3404

1.3059

1.2989

1.2886

USD/INR

83.95

84

84.03

 

83.92

83.87

 

MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE

Currency Pair

Supports

Resistances

Trend

Remarks

EURO/USD

1.10/1.09

1.1210/1.1340

UP

DN<1.10

GBP/USD

1.30

1.3435

UP

SIDE<1.30

USD/JPY

139

146.50

DN

SIDE>146.50

USD/INR

83.75/83.68

84.10

UP

SIDE>83.68

USD/CHF

0.84

0.8550

DN

SIDE>0.8550

Technicals: Spot closed above 50 and  200 day moving averages.20 day moving average is at 83.82. 50 day moving average is at 83.82. 200 day moving average is at 83.40. Daily MACD is in buy zone. Important support is at 83.40 and important resistance is at 84.10. Spot closed above the average level of the day.

Intraday supports and resistances for Sep contract are:

PP: 83.92, S1:83.91, S2:83.88, R1:83.94, R2:83.96.             

Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.

However on directional basis, suggest the following:

USD exports be hedged on rally to 83.80+. Payables be hedged at 83.45.

CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:

EURO/USD: The pair is above major moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.1205/1.1340. Next major support is at 1.10/1.09. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying an important bottom at 1.10. Weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.06.

GBP/USD: The pair is above moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.30 and weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.23. Important support is at 1.30. Important resistance is at 1.3435.

USD/YEN: The pair is below major averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 139.50. Important resistance is at 146.50 and support is at 139.50.

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