USDINR opened at 69.18 on Friday and the pair traded in the 69.04-69.32 range. Spot USDINR closed at 69.16, loss of 18 ps for USD as against prior close of 69.34. RBI reference rate was fixed at 69.17. April USD/INR closed at 69.47, loss of 13 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 69.60. April Euro/INR closed at 78.27, GBP/INR at 91.12 and Yen/INR at 62.88.
FII’S have invested Rs 33116 Cr in Indian Equities in March. FII’S have nett bought Rs 47195 Cr of Indian Equities in this calendar Year till date. FII’S have invested Rs 15351 Cr of Indian debt securities in March. FII’S have nett bought Rs 3460 Cr of Indian debt in this calendar year till date. FII’S have nett invested Rs 9685 Cr in Equities in 2018-19 fiscal, with most of the investment coming in Feb and March 2019. FII’S have nett sold Rs 45892 Cr in debt papers in 2018-19 fiscal.
Benchmark Nifty climbed 0.47% on Friday. DOW climbed 211 points (0.82%) on Friday. Nikkei climbed 0.82% and Hang seng climbed 0.95% on Friday.
Euro closed the week at 1.1218, Pound at 1.3036,Yen at 110.86.
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1296 and WT1Crude at USD 60.20/Brent at USD 67.60.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 2.41% and 3 m libor closed at 2.61%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.35%.
Economic news: US inflation eased, UK GDP declined and Crude extended its rally. Brexit vote uncertainty continues. Indian and Global stock indices extended their rallies. Focus is on RBI Credit policy next week.
Data highlights : – US personal income climbed 0.2% m/m, spendingclimbed 0.1% m/m, Core PCE index climbed 0.1% m/m, all below expectations.
-US new home sales climbed to 667k and Chicago PMI dipped to 58.7.
-German retail sales climbed 0.9% m/m and UK GDP grew by 0.2% q/q.
Monday’s calendar: -US retail sales, ISM(mfrg) and construction spending
-EU PMI(mfrg) and CPI(flash)
| USD/INR | 69.32 | 69.04 | |
| EUR/USD | 1.1218 | 1.1248 | 1.1208 |
| GBP/USD | 1.3036 | 1.3136 | 1.2978 |
| USD/JPY | 110.86 | 110.95 | 110.53 |
Daily Support/Resistance table
| CurrencyPairs | Pivot | R1 | R2 | R3 | S1 | S2 | S3 |
| EURO/USD | 1.1224 | 1.1241 | 1.1264 | 1.1200 | 1.1184 | ||
| GBP/USD | 1.3050 | 1.3122 | 1.3208 | 1.2964 | 1.2892 | ||
| USD/JPY | 110.78
|
111.03 | 111.20 |
|
110.61 | 110.36 |
|
| USD/INR | 69.17 | 69.30 | 69.45 | 69.02 | 68.89 |
|
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
| Curency Pair | Supports | Resistances | Trend | Remarks |
| EURO/USD | 1.1175 | 1.1450 | DN | UP>1.1520 |
| GBP/USD | 1.2950 | 1.3390/1.3575 | UP | DN<1.2950 |
| USD/JPY | 108.50/107.80 | 112.10 | DN | UP>112.10 |
| USD/INR | 68.30 | 69.70 | DN | SIDE>70.40 |
| USD/CHF | 0.9890 | 1.00/1.0150 | SIDE | DN <0.9890 |
Technicals: Spot closed below all major moving averages. 20 day moving average is at 69.52. 50 day moving average is at 70.55. 200 day moving average is at 70.52. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying bottom at 68.30. Important support zone is at 68.30.Important resistances are at 69.70 and later at 70.40.Spot closed below its average level of the day.
Intra day supports and resistances for April contract are:
PP: 69.46,S1:69.33, S2:69.19, R1:69.60, R2:69.73.
Hedging strategy for USD/INR: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is below all major moving averages. Next Major resistance is at 1.1450. Major support is at 1.1170. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying an important top at 1.1450. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.1570.
GBP/USD: The pair is sideways and trading between major moving averages.Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.3385 and weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.2440. Important resistance is at 1.3385 and later at 1.3575. Important support is at 1.2950.
USD/YEN: The pair is between major moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 112.10. Next important resistance is at 112.10. Important support is at 109.75 and later at 108.50.
