FX – MORNING UPDATE :
USDINR opened at 83.71 y’day and the pair traded in the 83.71-83.81 range. Spot USDINR closed at 83.79, gain of 10 ps for USD as against prior close of 83.79.
RBI reference rate was fixed at 83.67 on 27/09. Oct USD/INR closed at 83.90, gain of 8 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 83.82. Oct Euro/INR closed at 93.15, GBP/INR at 112.16 and Yen/INR at 59.12. . 1 year USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 2.39% p.a. FX reserves stood at USD 692.3 bn, as on Sep 20 th. Reserves climbed US D 2.8 bn w/w.
|
PAIRS |
RBI REF RATE (30/09) |
|
USDINR |
83.79 |
|
EURINR |
93.53 |
|
GBPINR |
112.16 |
|
JPYINR |
59.12 |
In Sep , FPI’S have bought Rs 55855 Cr of Equities and bought Rs 708 Cr of debt . In FY 23-24, FII’S have net bought Rs 206279 Cr of Equities and have net bought Rs 123120 Cr of debt.
Benchmark Nifty declined 368 points (1.41%) y’day. US S&P climbed 24 points (0.42%) y’day. Nikkei declined 4.82% and Hang Seng climbed 2.43% y’day..
Euro is now at 1.1135, Pound at 1.3377, Yen at 144.
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 2636 and WT1Crude at USD 68/Brent at USD 72.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 3.78% and 3 m libor closed at 4.96%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 6.86%.
Economic news: Indian Equity markets declined over 1.4%, exhibiting signs of correction from a overheated market. Chinese stock market rally continued, while Japanese markets declined over 4% on election of a hawkish PM. Chinese markets climbed on stimulus measures.
FX markets await EU CPI and US NFP.
Data highlights: – UK GDP climbed 0.5% q/q.
Tuesday’s calendar : – US ISM(mfrg) and construction spending
-EU CPI, PMI(mfrg)
-UK PMI(mfrg)
|
USD/INR |
|
83.81 |
83.71 |
|
|
EUR/USD |
1.1135 |
1.1208 |
1.1113 |
|
|
GBP/USD |
1.3377 |
1.3423 |
1.3350 |
|
|
USD/JPY |
144 |
143.91 |
141.65 |
Daily Support/Resistance table
|
Currency Pairs |
Pivot |
R1 |
R2 |
R3 |
S1 |
S2 |
S3 |
|
EURO/USD |
1.1153 |
1.1193 |
1.1248 |
1.1288 |
1.1098 |
1.1058 |
1.1002 |
|
USD/JPY |
143.10 |
144.55 |
145.36 |
146.80 |
142.29 |
140.84 |
140.03 |
|
GBP/USD |
1.3383 |
1.3416 |
1.3456 |
1.3489 |
1.3343 |
1.3310 |
1.3270 |
|
USD/INR |
83.77 |
83.83 |
83.87 |
|
83.73 |
83.67 |
|
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
|
Currency Pair |
Supports |
Resistances |
Trend |
Remarks |
|
EURO/USD |
1.10/1.09 |
1.1210/1.1340 |
UP |
DN<1.10 |
|
GBP/USD |
1.30 |
1.3435 |
UP |
SIDE<1.30 |
|
USD/JPY |
139 |
146.50 |
DN |
SIDE>146.50 |
|
USD/INR |
83.40 |
83.75/83.82 |
DN |
UP>83.82 |
|
USD/CHF |
0.84 |
0.8550 |
DN |
SIDE>0.8550 |
Technicals: Spot closed below 50 but still above 200 day moving averages.20 day moving average is at 83.82. 50 day moving average is at 83.82. 200 day moving average is at 83.40. Daily MACD is in sell zone. Important support is at 83.40 and important resistance is at 83.82. Spot closed above the average level of the day.
Intraday supports and resistances for Sep contract are:
PP: 83.88, S1:83.84, S2:83.79, R1:83.93, R2:83.97.
Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
However on directional basis, suggest the following:
USD exports be hedged on rally to 83.80+. Payables be hedged at 83.45.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is above major moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.1205/1.1340. Next major support is at 1.10/1.09. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying an important bottom at 1.10. Weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.06.
GBP/USD: The pair is above moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.30 and weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.23. Important support is at 1.30. Important resistance is at 1.3435.
USD/YEN: The pair is below major averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 139.50. Important resistance is at 146.50 and support is at 139.50.
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