FX – MORNING UPDATE :
USDINR opened at 83.66 y’day and the pair traded in the 83.62-83.71 range. Spot USDINR closed at 83.62, unchanged for USD as against prior close of 83.67.
RBI reference rate was fixed at 83.71 on 26/09. Oct USD/INR closed at 83.75, gain of 1 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 83.74. Oct Euro/INR closed at 93.36, GBP/INR at 111.98 and Yen/INR at 57.80. . 1 year USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 2.39% p.a. FX reserves stood at USD 689 bn, as on Sep 13 th. Reserves climbed US D 223 mn w/w.
|
PAIRS |
RBI REF RATE (26/09) |
|
USDINR |
83.71 |
|
EURINR |
93.32 |
|
GBPINR |
111.69 |
|
JPYINR |
57.84 |
In Aug , FPI’S have bought Rs 32195 Cr of Equities and sold Rs 412 Cr of debt . In FY 23-24, FII’S have net bought Rs 206279 Cr of Equities and have net bought Rs 123120 Cr of debt.
Benchmark Nifty climbed 211 points (0.81%) y’day. US S&P climbed 23 points (0.40%) y’day. Nikkei climbed 2.41% and Hang Seng climbed 4.16% y’day..
Euro is now at 1.1170, Pound at 1.3399, Yen at 145.47.
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 2670 and WT1Crude at USD 67.50/Brent at USD 71.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 3.80% and 3 m libor closed at 4.96%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 6.82%.
Economic news: US durable goods orders rose 0.0% mom to USD 289.7B in August, much better than expectation of -2.8% mom decline.
Germany’s economic prospects have deteriorated further as the Joint Economic Forecast Project Group revised its GDP forecasts downward. The group now expects the German economy to contract by -0.1% in 2024, a downgrade from the previously anticipated 0.1% growth.
Swiss national bank lowered its policy rate by 25 basis points to 1.00%, citing that inflationary pressure “has again decreased significantly”, largely driven by the recent appreciation of Swiss Franc. SNB’s statement also indicated that further rate cuts “may become necessary” in the coming quarters to maintain price stability in the medium term.
Data highlights: – US Weekly jobless claims dipped to 218k, durables order was flat m/m.
-US pending home sales climbed 0.6% m/m and GDP(final) was reported at 3% q/q.
Friday’s calendar : – US Personal income, spending and Core PCE index
|
USD/INR |
|
83.71 |
83.62 |
|
|
EUR/USD |
1.1170 |
1.1189 |
1.1126 |
|
|
GBP/USD |
1.3399 |
1.3434 |
1.3312 |
|
|
USD/JPY |
145.47 |
145.20 |
144.11 |
Daily Support/Resistance table
|
Currency Pairs |
Pivot |
R1 |
R2 |
R3 |
S1 |
S2 |
S3 |
|
EURO/USD |
1.1164 |
1.1202 |
1.1227 |
1.1265 |
1.1139 |
1.1101 |
1.1076 |
|
USD/JPY |
144.80 |
145.49 |
145.89 |
146.58 |
144.40 |
143.71 |
143.31 |
|
GBP/USD |
1.3386 |
1.3460 |
1.3508 |
1.3582 |
1.3338 |
1.3264 |
1.3215 |
|
USD/INR |
83.65 |
83.68 |
83.74 |
|
83.59 |
83.56 |
|
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
|
Currency Pair |
Supports |
Resistances |
Trend |
Remarks |
|
EURO/USD |
1.10/1.09 |
1.1210/1.1340 |
UP |
DN<1.10 |
|
GBP/USD |
1.30 |
1.3375/1.1.3520 |
UP |
SIDE<1.30 |
|
USD/JPY |
139 |
145.50 |
DN |
SIDE>145.50 |
|
USD/INR |
83.40 |
83.75/83.88 |
DN |
UP>83.88 |
|
USD/CHF |
0.84 |
0.8650/0.8730 |
DN |
SIDE>0.8650 |
Technicals: Spot closed below 50 but still above 200 day moving averages.20 day moving average is at 83.84. 50 day moving average is at 83.82. 200 day moving average is at 83.40. Daily MACD is in sell zone. Important support is at 83.40 and important resistance is at 83.75/83.88. Spot closed below the average level of the day.
Intraday supports and resistances for Sep contract are:
PP: 83.78, S1:83.72, S2:83.69, R1:83.81, R2:83.87.
Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
However on directional basis, suggest the following:
USD exports be hedged on rally to 83.75/83.80+. Payables be hedged at 83.45.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is above major moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.1205/1.1340. Next major support is at 1.10/1.09. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying an important bottom at 1.10. Weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.06.
GBP/USD: The pair is above moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.30 and weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.23. Important support is at 1.30. Important resistance is at 1.3370/1.3520.
USD/YEN: The pair is below major averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 139.50. Important resistance is at 145.50/149.40 and support is at 139.50.
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