FX – MORNING UPDATE :
USDINR opened at 83.59 y’day and the pair traded in the 83.52-83.64 range. Spot USDINR closed at 83.62, loss of 5 ps for USD as against prior close of 83.67.
RBI reference rate was fixed at 83.55 on 25/09. Sept USD/INR closed at 83.61, loss of 7 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 83.68. Sep Euro/INR closed at 93.65, GBP/INR at 111.77 and Yen/INR at 57.87. . 1 year USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 2.37% p.a. FX reserves stood at USD 689 bn, as on Sep 13 th. Reserves climbed US D 223 mn w/w.
|
PAIRS |
RBI REF RATE (25/09) |
|
USDINR |
83.55 |
|
EURINR |
93.48 |
|
GBPINR |
111.98 |
|
JPYINR |
58.24 |
In Aug , FPI’S have bought Rs 32195 Cr of Equities and sold Rs 412 Cr of debt . In FY 23-24, FII’S have net bought Rs 206279 Cr of Equities and have net bought Rs 123120 Cr of debt.
Benchmark Nifty climbed 63 points (0.25%) y’day. US S&P declined 10 points (0.19%) y’day. Nikkei declined 0.25% and Hang Seng climbed 0.68% y’day..
Euro is now at 1.1187, Pound at 1.3415, Yen at 143.39.
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 2657 and WT1Crude at USD 69.75/Brent at USD 73.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 3.74% and 3 m libor closed at 4.96%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 6.86%.
Economic news: In the Economic Outlook Interim Report, OECD raised its global GDP growth forecast for 2024 by 0.1% to 3.2%, while keeping the 2025 projection steady at 3.2%. India is expected to grow at 6.7% in 2025.
In the US, growth forecasts remain unchanged at 2.6% for 2024 but have been downgraded by 0.2% to 1.6% for 2025. Eurozone’s GDP growth forecast is unchanged at 0.7% for 2024 and revised down by 0.2% to 1.3% for 2025.
OECD projects that Fed’s main interest rate could ease to 3.5% by the end of 2025 from the current range of 4.75%-5%. Similarly, ECB is expected to reduce its rate to 2.25% from 3.5% now.
Data highlights: – US new home sales climbed to 716k.
Thursday’s calendar : – US Weekly jobless claims, durables order
-US pending home sales and GDP(final)
|
USD/INR |
|
83.64 |
83.52 |
|
|
EUR/USD |
1.1187 |
1.1214 |
1.1121 |
|
|
GBP/USD |
1.3415 |
1.3431 |
1.3311 |
|
|
USD/JPY |
143.39 |
144.85 |
142.90 |
Daily Support/Resistance table
|
Currency Pairs |
Pivot |
R1 |
R2 |
R3 |
S1 |
S2 |
S3 |
|
EURO/USD |
1.1156 |
1.1191 |
1.1249 |
1.1283 |
1.1098 |
1.1063 |
1.1005 |
|
USD/JPY |
144.16 |
145.44 |
146.11 |
147.38 |
143.49 |
142.23 |
141.55 |
|
GBP/USD |
1.3355 |
1.3399 |
1.3475 |
1.3519 |
1.3279 |
1.3235 |
1.3159 |
|
USD/INR |
83.59 |
83.67 |
83.71 |
|
83.54 |
83.47 |
|
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
|
Currency Pair |
Supports |
Resistances |
Trend |
Remarks |
|
EURO/USD |
1.10/1.09 |
1.1210/1.1340 |
UP |
DN<1.10 |
|
GBP/USD |
1.30 |
1.3375/1.1.3520 |
UP |
SIDE<1.30 |
|
USD/JPY |
139 |
145.50 |
DN |
SIDE>145.50 |
|
USD/INR |
83.40 |
83.75/83.88 |
DN |
UP>83.88 |
|
USD/CHF |
0.84 |
0.8650/0.8730 |
DN |
SIDE>0.8650 |
Technicals: Spot closed below 50 but still above 200 day moving averages.20 day moving average is at 83.84. 50 day moving average is at 83.82. 200 day moving average is at 83.40. Daily MACD is in sell zone. Important support is at 83.40 and important resistance is at 83.75/83.88. Spot closed above the average level of the day.
Intraday supports and resistances for Sep contract are:
PP: 83.60, S1:83.54, S2:83.47, R1:83.67, R2:83.73.
Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
However on directional basis, suggest the following:
USD exports be hedged on rally to 83.75/83.80+. Payables be hedged at 83.45.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is above major moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.1205/1.1340. Next major support is at 1.10/1.09. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying an important bottom at 1.10. Weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.06.
GBP/USD: The pair is above moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.30 and weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.23. Important support is at 1.30. Important resistance is at 1.3370/1.3520.
USD/YEN: The pair is below major averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 139.50. Important resistance is at 145.50/149.40 and support is at 139.50.
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