FX – MORNING UPDATE :
USDINR opened at 83.62 on Friday and the pair traded in the 83.47-83.62 range. Spot USDINR closed at 83.55, loss of 10 ps for USD as against prior close of 83.65.
RBI reference rate was fixed at 83.49 on 20/09. Sept USD/INR closed at 83.58, loss of 11 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 83.69. Sep Euro/INR closed at 93.26, GBP/INR at 111 and Yen/INR at 58. . 1 year USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 2.34% p.a. FX reserves stood at USD 689 bn, as on Sep 13 th. Reserves climbed US D 223 mn w/w.
|
PAIRS |
RBI REF RATE (20/09) |
|
USDINR |
83.49 |
|
EURINR |
93.28 |
|
GBPINR |
111.23 |
|
JPYINR |
58.83 |
In Aug , FPI’S have bought Rs 32195 Cr of Equities and sold Rs 412 Cr of debt . In FY 23-24, FII’S have net bought Rs 206279 Cr of Equities and have net bought Rs 123120 Cr of debt.
Benchmark Nifty climbed 375 points (1.48%) on Friday. US S&P declined 11 points (0.19%) on Friday. Nikkei climbed 1.67% and Hang Seng climbed 1.36% on Friday..
Euro is now at 1.1162, Pound at 1.3331, Yen at 143.91.
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 2622 and WT1Crude at USD 70.50/Brent at USD 74.50.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 3.74% and 3 m libor closed at 5.07%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 6.85%.
Economic news: Rupee climbed to 83.47 as RBI refrained from intervention. Rupee has been gaining on the back of Fed rate cuts. However, RBI has facilitated Rupee gain by stepping aside. Recently, RBI Governor said that Rupee is the most stable currency amongst Asian Peers and stability fosters confidence and investment.
ECB Vice President reaffirmed the central bank’s cautious approach regarding rate cuts in the upcoming meetings. He stressed that ECB remains “fully committed” to a data-dependent strategy, making decisions on a “meeting-by-meeting” basis.
While he acknowledged the possibility of cuts in both October and December, he highlighted that December would provide a clearer picture.
Data highlights: – EU Consumer confidence was reported at -13.
-UK retail sales climbed 1% m/m.
Monday’s calendar : – EU PMI(mfrg) and PMI(services)
-UK PMI(mfrg) and PMI(services)
|
USD/INR |
|
83.62 |
83.47 |
|
|
EUR/USD |
1.1162 |
1.1183 |
1.1136 |
|
|
GBP/USD |
1.3331 |
1.3342 |
1.3267 |
|
|
USD/JPY |
143.91 |
144.51 |
141.74 |
Daily Support/Resistance table
|
Currency Pairs |
Pivot |
R1 |
R2 |
R3 |
S1 |
S2 |
S3 |
|
EURO/USD |
1.1160 |
1.1184 |
1.1207 |
|
1.1137 |
1.1113 |
|
|
USD/JPY |
143.38 |
145.03 |
146.15 |
|
142.25 |
140.61 |
|
|
GBP/USD |
1.3250 |
1.3346 |
1.3411 |
1.3507 |
1.3186 |
1.3089 |
1.3025 |
|
USD/INR |
83.55 |
83.62 |
83.70 |
|
83.47 |
83.40 |
|
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
|
Currency Pair |
Supports |
Resistances |
Trend |
Remarks |
|
EURO/USD |
1.10/1.09 |
1.1210/1.1340 |
UP |
DN<1.10 |
|
GBP/USD |
1.30 |
1.3375/1.1.3520 |
UP |
SIDE<1.30 |
|
USD/JPY |
139 |
145.50 |
DN |
SIDE>145.50 |
|
USD/INR |
83.40 |
83.75/83.88 |
DN |
UP>83.88 |
|
USD/CHF |
0.84 |
0.8650/0.8730 |
DN |
SIDE>0.8650 |
Technicals: Spot closed below 50 but still above 200 day moving averages.20 day moving average is at 83.88. 50 day moving average is at 83.82. 200 day moving average is at 83.40. Daily MACD is in sell zone. Important support is at 83.40 and important resistance is at 83.75/83.88. Spot closed at the average level of the day.
Intraday supports and resistances for Sep contract are:
PP: 83.58, S1:83.50, S2:83.42, R1:83.66, R2:83.74.
Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
However on directional basis, suggest the following:
USD exports be hedged above 84.20+.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is above major moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.1205/1.1340. Next major support is at 1.10/1.09. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying an important bottom at 1.10. Weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.06.
GBP/USD: The pair is above moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.30 and weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.23. Important support is at 1.30. Important resistance is at 1.3370/1.3520.
USD/YEN: The pair is below major averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 139.50. Important resistance is at 145.50/149.40 and support is at 139.50.
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