FX MORNING UPDATE

                                                                                

USDINR opened at 69.07 Y’day and the pair traded in the 68.79-69.17 range. Spot USDINR closed at 68.94, loss of 2 ps for USD as against prior close of 68.96. RBI reference rate was fixed at 68.99. March USD/INR closed at 68.97, loss of 3 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 69. March Euro/INR closed at 78.05, GBP/INR at 90.92 and Yen/INR at 62.67.

FII’S have invested  Rs 26232 Cr in Indian Equities in March. FII’S have nett bought Rs 39923 Cr of Indian Equities in this calendar Year till date. FII’S have invested Rs 14136 Cr of Indian debt securities in March. FII’S have nett sold Rs 2245 Cr of Indian debt in this calendar year till date.

Benchmark Nifty declined 0.90% y’day. DOW declined 460 points (1.77%) on Friday. Nikkei declined 3.01% and Hang seng declined 2.03% y’day.

Euro is now at 1.1315, Pound at 1.3197,Yen at 110.03.    

Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1326 and WT1Crude at USD 59.20/Brent at USD 66.87.

Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 2.437% and 3 m libor closed at 2.61%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.32%.        

Economic news: Former Fed Chair Janet Yellen said in a conference that yield curve inversion doesn’t indicate recession in the US economy ahead. Rather, the development suggests that Fed might need to cut interest rate.

EU said in a statement that it would complete the preparations for no-deal Brexit on April 12. It also noted that it is “increasingly likely” that UK will leave EU without a deal. EU also urged all EU citizens and businesses to continue informing themselves about the consequences of a possible “no-deal” scenario and to complete their no-deal preparedness.

Data highlights : German Ifo survey climbed to 99.6.

Tuesday’s calendar: – US building permits and housing starts

-US House price index and consumer confidence.

-German Gfk consumer sentiment.

USD/INR   69.17 68.79
EUR/USD 1.1315 1.1332 1.1290
GBP/USD 1.3197 1.3246 1.3160
USD/JPY 110.03 110.25 109.71

 

Daily Support/Resistance table

CurrencyPairs Pivot R1 R2 R3 S1 S2 S3
EURO/USD 1.1312 1.1334 1.1355 1.1377 1.1292 1.1269 1.1249
GBP/USD 1.3206 1.3252 1.3292 1.3338 1.3166 1.3120 1.3080
USD/JPY 110.01

 

110.31 110.54 110.84

 

109.77 109.48 109.24

 

USD/INR 68.96 69.14 69.34   68.75 68.58  

 

 

MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE

Curency Pair Supports Resistances Trend Remarks
EURO/USD 1.1175 1.1450 DN UP>1.1520
GBP/USD 1.2950 1.3390/1.3575 UP DN<1.2950
USD/JPY 108.50/107.80 112.10 DN UP>112.10
USD/INR 68.30 69.20/69.70 DN SIDE>70.40
USD/CHF 0.9970 1.0120 UP  DN <0.9970

Technicals: Spot closed below all major moving averages. 20 day moving average is at 70.05. 50 day moving average is at 70.67. 200 day moving average is at 70.52. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying top at 71.84. Important support zone is at 68.30.Important resistances are at 69.20 and later at 69.80.Spot closed below its average level of the day.  

Intra day supports and resistances for March contract are:

PP: 69,S1:68.79, S2:68.69, R1:69.18, R2:69.39.                                                         

Hedging strategy for USD/INR: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.

CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:

EURO/USD: The pair is below all major moving averages. Next Major resistance is at 1.1450. Major support is at 1.1170. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying an important bottom at 1.1170. Weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.1170.

GBP/USD: The pair is bullish and trading above major moving averages.Daily MACD  is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.3385 and weekly MACD is  in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.2440. Important resistance is at 1.3385 and later at 1.3575. Important support is at 1.2950.

USD/YEN: The pair is below all major moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 112.10. Next important resistance is at 112.10. Important support is at 108.50 and later at 107.80.

 

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