FX – MORNING UPDATE :
USDINR opened at 83.69 Y’day and the pair traded in the 83.57-83.74 range. Spot USDINR closed at 83.65, loss of 13 ps for USD as against prior close of 83.78.
RBI reference rate was fixed at 83.62 on 19/09. Sept USD/INR closed at 83.69, loss of 12 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 83.81. Sep Euro/INR closed at 93.40, GBP/INR at 111 and Yen/INR at 58.62 . 1 year USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 2.28% p.a. FX reserves stood at USD 689 bn, as on Sep 6 th. Reserves climbed US D 5.25 bn w/w.
|
PAIRS |
RBI REF RATE (19/09) |
|
USDINR |
83.62 |
|
EURINR |
93.14 |
|
GBPINR |
110.77 |
|
JPYINR |
58.72 |
In Aug , FPI’S have bought Rs 18386 Cr of Equities and bought Rs 482 Cr of debt . In FY 23-24, FII’S have net bought Rs 206279 Cr of Equities and have net bought Rs 123120 Cr of debt.
Benchmark Nifty climbed 38 points (0.15%) y’day. US S&P climbed 95 points (1.7%) y’day. Nikkei climbed 2.15% and Hang Seng climbed 2% y’day..
Euro is now at 1.1161, Pound at 1.3280, Yen at 141.66.
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 2581 and WT1Crude at USD 71/Brent at USD 74.50.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 3.70% and 3 m libor closed at 5.07%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 6.85%.
Economic news: Fed cuts rates by 50 bps to 4.75% to 5% range and indicated two more 25 bps cuts this year and 100 bps cuts next year. Fed sees 2.9% as terminal rates by 2026. GDP, which is now forecast at 2% for 2024, down from a prior forecast of 2.1%, and maintain this pace through 2027. For 2024, Fed members sees the unemployment rate at 4.4% for 2024, up from a prior forecast of 4%. The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.4% in 2025, up from a prior estimate of 4.2%, and fall to 4.3% in 2026, up from 4.1% previously.
At the press conference that followed the decision, Fed chairman Jerome Powell downplayed concerns about a recession, pointing to solid growth, cooling inflation and a “very solid labor” market.
BoE opted to keep the Bank Rate unchanged at 5.00%, as expected, with an 8-1 vote. BoE emphasized that “absence of material developments”, it will continue to follow a “gradual approach” to unwinding policy restrictions. Monetary policy is expected to stay restrictive for a sufficiently long period until inflation risks subside, ensuring it returns to the 2% target. The central bank reaffirmed its commitment to closely monitor inflation persistence and determine the necessary level of restrictiveness “at each meeting.”
Data highlights: – US building permits rose to 1.48 mn and housing starts climbed to 1.36 mn.
-US Weekly jobless claims dipped to 219k and existing home sales dipped to 3.86 mn.
-EU CPI climbed 2.2% y/y.
-UK CPI climbed 2.2% y/y, RPI climbed 3.5% y/y and PPI(output) declined -0.3% m/m.
Friday’s calendar : – EU Consumer confidence
-UK retail sales.
|
USD/INR |
|
83.74 |
83.57 |
|
|
EUR/USD |
1.1161 |
1.1179 |
1.1069 |
|
|
GBP/USD |
1.3280 |
1.3314 |
1.3154 |
|
|
USD/JPY |
141.66 |
143.95 |
142.04 |
Daily Support/Resistance table
|
Currency Pairs |
Pivot |
R1 |
R2 |
R3 |
S1 |
S2 |
S3 |
|
EURO/USD |
1.1136 |
1.1203 |
1.1246 |
1.1314 |
1.1093 |
1.1026 |
1.0983 |
|
USD/JPY |
142.95 |
143.86 |
144.85 |
145.76 |
141.95 |
141.05 |
140.05 |
|
GBP/USD |
1.3250 |
1.3346 |
1.3411 |
1.3507 |
1.3186 |
1.3089 |
1.3025 |
|
USD/INR |
83.65 |
83.74 |
83.82 |
|
83.56 |
83.48 |
|
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
|
Currency Pair |
Supports |
Resistances |
Trend |
Remarks |
|
EURO/USD |
1.0970 |
1.1210/1.1340 |
UP |
DN<1.0970 |
|
GBP/USD |
1.2960 |
1.3270/1.3450 |
UP |
SIDE<1.2960 |
|
USD/JPY |
139 |
143.50/149.40 |
DN |
SIDE>143.50 |
|
USD/INR |
83.40 |
83.75/83.88 |
DN |
UP>83.88 |
|
USD/CHF |
0.84 |
0.8650/0.8730 |
DN |
SIDE>0.8650 |
Technicals: Spot closed below 50 but still above 200 day moving averages.20 day moving average is at 83.91. 50 day moving average is at 83.82. 200 day moving average is at 83.39. Daily MACD is in sell zone. Important support is at 83.40 and important resistance is at 83.75/83.88. Spot closed at the average level of the day.
Intraday supports and resistances for Sep contract are:
PP: 83.69, S1:83.60, S2:83.51, R1:83.78, R2:83.87.
Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
However on directional basis, suggest the following:
USD exports be hedged above 84.20+.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is above major moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.1205/1.1340. Next major support is at 1.0970. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying an important top at 1.1205. Weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.06.
GBP/USD: The pair is above moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.3270 and weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.23. Important support is at 1.2950. Important resistance is at 1.3270/1.3450.
USD/YEN: The pair is below major averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 149.40. Important resistance is at 143.50/149.40 and support is at 139.
Click to open an Account : https://ekyc.gwcindia.in/client/