FX – MORNING UPDATE :
USDINR opened at 83.86 Y’day and the pair traded in the 83.70-83.87 range. Spot USDINR closed at 83.78, loss of 14 ps for USD as against prior close of 83.92.
RBI reference rate was fixed at 83.83 on 17/09. Sept USD/INR closed at 83.81, loss of 11 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 83.92. Sep Euro/INR closed at 93.28, GBP/INR at 110.63 and Yen/INR at 59.55 . 1 year USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 2.28% p.a. FX reserves stood at USD 689 bn, as on Sep 6 th. Reserves climbed US D 5.25 bn w/w.
|
PAIRS |
RBI REF RATE (17/09) |
|
USDINR |
83.83 |
|
EURINR |
93.29 |
|
GBPINR |
110.75 |
|
JPYINR |
59.63 |
In Aug , FPI’S have bought Rs 18386 Cr of Equities and bought Rs 482 Cr of debt . In FY 23-24, FII’S have net bought Rs 206279 Cr of Equities and have net bought Rs 123120 Cr of debt.
Benchmark Nifty climbed 35 points (0.14%) y’day. US S&P climbed 30 points (0.54%) y’day. Nikkei declined 1.03% and Hang Seng climbed 1.37% y’day..
Euro is now at 1.1128, Pound at 1.3171, Yen at 141.66.
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 2575 and WT1Crude at USD 69.50/Brent at USD 73.50.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 3.64% and 3 m libor closed at 5.20%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 6.89%.
Economic news: WPI inflation eased to 1.31% in Aug vs 2.04% in July. WPI softened due to fall in Natural gas and crude prices. Core WPI inflation declined to 0.7% in Aug from 1.2% in July.
Rupee gained on expectations of 50 bps cut by Fed. Gain in Asian currencies also contributed to Rupee positive sentiment.
RBI Governor said that Rupee has emerged as a very stable Currency and the stated policy is to prevent excessive volatility of Rupee. He said Rupee stability fosters confidence amongst investors, and is helpful for the overall health of the economy.
US retail sales rose 0.1% month-on-month in August, ahead of the consensus forecast calling for a decline of 0.2% m/m. Consumer spending sits at a robust 3.5% annualized for the third quarter, which would be the fastest pace of PCE growth since Q1-2023. This is expected to slow down as labor market turns soft and savings potential declines.
Germany’s ZEW Economic Sentiment dropped sharply in September, falling from 19.2 to 3.6, significantly missing expectations of 18.6. EU ZEW Economic Sentiment fell to 9.3, down from 17.9. ZEW President highlighted that “the hope for a swift improvement in the economic situation is visibly fading,” adding that the balance between optimists and pessimists is now evenly split.
The sharp fall in expectations for Germany signals that economic pessimism is growing faster than elsewhere in the Eurozone.
Data highlights: – US retail sales climbed 0.1% m/m and Core sales climbed 0.1% m/m. Industrial production climbed 0.8% m/m.
Wednesday’s calendar : – US building permits and housing starts
-EU CPI
-UK CPI, RPI and PPI(output)
|
USD/INR |
|
83.87 |
83.70 |
|
|
EUR/USD |
1.1128 |
1.1147 |
1.1111 |
|
|
GBP/USD |
1.3171 |
1.3230 |
1.3146 |
|
|
USD/JPY |
141.66 |
142.48 |
140.32 |
Daily Support/Resistance table
|
Currency Pairs |
Pivot |
R1 |
R2 |
R3 |
S1 |
S2 |
S3 |
|
EURO/USD |
1.1127 |
1.1143 |
1.1163 |
1.1179 |
1.1107 |
1.1091 |
1.1071 |
|
USD/JPY |
141.60 |
142.88 |
143.75 |
145.03 |
140.72 |
139.45 |
138.57 |
|
GBP/USD |
1.3181 |
1.3216 |
1.3265 |
1.3300 |
1.3132 |
1.3097 |
1.3048 |
|
USD/INR |
83.78 |
83.87 |
83.94 |
|
83.69 |
83.62 |
|
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
|
Currency Pair |
Supports |
Resistances |
Trend |
Remarks |
|
EURO/USD |
1.0970 |
1.1210/1.1340 |
UP |
DN<1.0970 |
|
GBP/USD |
1.2960 |
1.3270/1.3450 |
UP |
SIDE<1.2960 |
|
USD/JPY |
139 |
143.50/149.40 |
DN |
SIDE>143.50 |
|
USD/INR |
83.65 |
83.98/84.10 |
SIDE |
UP>83.98 |
|
USD/CHF |
0.84 |
0.8650/0.8730 |
DN |
SIDE>0.8650 |
Technicals: Spot closed above 50 and 200 day moving averages.20 day moving average is at 83.92. 50 day moving average is at 83.81. 200 day moving average is at 83.39. Daily MACD is in sell zone. Important support is at 83.65 and important resistance is at 84.10/84.30. Spot closed at the average level of the day.
Intraday supports and resistances for Sep contract are:
PP: 83.82, S1:83.72, S2:83.63, R1:83.91, R2:84.01.
Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
However on directional basis, suggest the following:
USD exports be hedged above 84.20+.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is above major moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.1205/1.1340. Next major support is at 1.0970. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying an important top at 1.1205. Weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.06.
GBP/USD: The pair is above moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.3270 and weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.23. Important support is at 1.2950. Important resistance is at 1.3270/1.3450.
USD/YEN: The pair is below major averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 149.40. Important resistance is at 143.50/149.40 and support is at 139.
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