FX MORNING UPDATE

USDINR opened at 83.95 on Friday and the pair traded in the 83.85-83.95 range. Spot USDINR closed at 83.92, loss of 5 ps for USD as against prior close of 83.97. RBI reference rate was fixed at 83.92 on 13/09. Sept USD/INR closed at 83.96, loss of 4 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 84. Sep Euro/INR closed at 93.04, GBP/INR at 110.15 and Yen/INR at 59.53. 1 year USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 2.25% p.a. FX reserves stood at USD 689 bn, as on Sep 6th. Reserves climbed US D 5.25 bn w/w.

PAIRS	RBI REF RATE (13/09)
USDINR	83.92
EURINR	92.95
GBPINR	110.22
JPYINR	59.49

In Aug , FPI’S have bought Rs 18386 Cr of Equities and bought Rs 482 Cr of debt . In FY 23-24, FII’S have net bought Rs 206279 Cr of Equities and have net bought Rs 123120 Cr of debt. Benchmark Nifty declined 32 points (0.13%) on Friday. US S&P climbed 30 points (0.54%) on Friday. Nikkei decline 0.78% and Hang Seng climbed 0.75% on Friday. Euro is now at 1.1076, Pound at 1.3122, Yen at 140.82. Commodities: Gold is now at USD 2576 and WT1Crude at USD 69.25/Brent at USD 71.50. Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 3.65% and 3 m libor closed at 5.20%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 6.91%. Economic news: Gold rallied, US Equities continued its bull run and US Yields fell further on speculation of 50 bps cut by Fed. Fed is meeting incoming week and could initiate the process of series of rate cuts. USD maintained its cautious movement as ECB cut rates and signaled data dependent approach. Overall in the currency markets, Yen ended as the strongest performer last week, supported by expectations that BoJ will maintain its gradual tightening path. While the pace of future rate hikes remains uncertain, the narrowing interest rate differential between Japan and other major economies continues to lend support to Yen. Gold is maintaining its strong uptrend, supported by Central bank purchases, geo political tensions and rate cuts. Data highlights: – No major data release. Monday’s calendar : – No major data release.

USD/INR			83.95	83.85
EUR/USD	1.1076		1.1102	1.1071
GBP/USD	1.3122		1.3159	1.3114
USD/JPY	140.82		141.88	140.28

Daily Support/Resistance table

Currency Pairs	Pivot	R1	R2	R3	S1	S2	S3
EURO/USD	1.1083	1.1095	1.1114		1.1064	1.1052
USD/JPY	141	141.72	142.60		140.12	139.40
GBP/USD	1.3131	1.3149	1.3167		1.3103	1.3086
USD/INR	83.91	83.96	84.01		83.87	83.81

MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE

Currency Pair	Supports	Resistances	Trend	Remarks
EURO/USD	1.0970	1.1210/1.1340	UP	DN<1.0970
GBP/USD	1.2960	1.3270/1.3450	UP	SIDE<1.2960
USD/JPY	139	143.50/149.40	DN	SIDE>143.50
USD/INR	83.76/83.65	84.10/84.30	UP	SIDE<83.76
USD/CHF	0.84	0.8650/0.8730	DN	SIDE>0.8650

Technicals: Spot closed above 50 and 200 day moving averages.20 day moving average is at 83.92. 50 day moving average is at 83.81. 200 day moving average is at 83.39. Daily MACD is in sell zone. Important support is at 83.75/83.65 and important resistance is at 84.10/84.30. Spot closed above the average level of the day. Intraday supports and resistances for Sep contract are: PP: 83.95, S1:83.90, S2:83.84, R1:84.01, R2:84.06.              Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates. However on directional basis, suggest the following: USD exports be hedged above 84.20+. CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS: EURO/USD: The pair is above major moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.1205/1.1340. Next major support is at 1.0970. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying an important top at 1.1205. Weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.06. GBP/USD: The pair is above moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.3270 and weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.23. Important support is at 1.2950. Important resistance is at 1.3270/1.3450. USD/YEN: The pair is below major averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 149.40. Important resistance is at 143.50/149.40 and support is at 139.

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