FX MORNING UPDATE

                                                                                       

USDINR opened at 68.91 y’day the pair traded in the 68.43-68.93 range. Spot USDINR closed at 68.52, loss of 57 ps for USD as against prior close of 69.09. RBI reference rate was fixed at 68.61. March USD/INR closed at 68.61, loss of 59 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 69.20. March Euro/INR closed at 78.01, GBP/INR at 91.12 and Yen/INR at 61.65.

FII’S have invested  Rs 17054 Cr in Indian Equities in March. FII’S have nett bought Rs 31878 Cr of Indian Equities in this calendar Year till date. FII’S have invested Rs 5849 Cr of Indian debt securities in March. FII’S have nett sold Rs 6042 Cr of Indian debt in this calendar year till date.

Benchmark Nifty climbed 0.31% Y’day. DOW climbed 138 points (0.54%) on Friday. Nikkei climbed 0.77% and Hang seng climbed 1.37% y’day..

Euro is now at 1.1343, Pound at 1.3275,Yen at 111.19.    

Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1306 and WT1Crude at USD 59.39 /Brent at USD 67.61.

Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 2.59% and 3 m libor closed at 2.61%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.30%.        

Economic news: Indian trade deficit for Feb declined to USD 9.6 bn vs estimated deficit of USD 13.7 bn. Exports climbed 2.4% to USD 26.7bn. Imports declined 5.4% to USD 36.3 bn. Oil imports declined to US 9.3 bn in Feb. FX reserves climb to USD 402 bn.

Bundesbank said in the monthly report that German economic growth remained subdued in Q1. The main reasons include weak industrial production, falling auto exports and deteriorating manufacturing sentiment. 

Data highlights : No major data  releases.                                                             

 

Tuesday’s calendar: – US factory orders

-EU Zew and German zew survey indicators.

-UK claimant count change and unemployment rate.                                                     

USD/INR   68.93 68.43
EUR/USD 1.1343 1.1359 1.1320
GBP/USD 1.3275 1.3301 1.3185
USD/JPY 111.19 111.64 111.30

Daily Support/Resistance table

CurrencyPairs Pivot R1 R2 R3 S1 S2 S3
EURO/USD 1.1338 1.1356 1.1378 1.1396 1.1317 1.1298 1.1277
GBP/USD 1.3250 1.3315 1.3366 1.3431 1.3199 1.3134 1.3083
USD/JPY 111.44

 

111.58 111.77 111.91

 

111.24 111.11 110.91

 

USD/INR 68.62 68.82 69.12   68.31 68.12  

 

MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABL

Curency Pair Supports Resistances Trend Remarks
EURO/USD 1.1175 1.1350/1.1490 DN UP>1.1520
GBP/USD 1.2950 1.3350/1.3575 UP DN<1.2950
USD/JPY 110 112.10 UP DN<110
USD/INR 68.30 69.10/69.30 DN SIDE>70.40
USD/CHF 0.9970 1.0120 UP  DN <0.9970

                                                                                                                                               

Technicals: Spot closed below all major moving averages. 20 day moving average is at 70.40. 50 day moving average is at 70.76. 200 day moving average is at 70.50. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying top at 71.84. Important support zone is at 68.30.Important resistances are at 69.20 and later at 70.40.Spot closed below its average level of the day.  

Intra day supports and resistances for March contract are:

PP: 68.72,S1:68.39, S2:68.18, R1:68.93, R2:69.26.                                                         

Hedging strategy for USD/INR: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.

CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:

EURO/USD: The pair is below all major moving averages. Next Major resistance is at 1.1350 and later at 1.1490. Major support is at 1.1170. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying an important bottom at 1.1170. Weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.1170.

GBP/USD: The pair is bullish and trading above major moving averages.Daily MACD  is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.2950 and weekly MACD is  in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.2440. Important resistance is at 1.3350 and later at 1.3575. Important support is at 1.2950.

USD/YEN: The pair is above all major moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 112.10. Next important resistance is at 112.10. Important support is at 110.

 

 

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