FX – MORNING UPDATE :
USDINR opened at 83.97 y’day and the pair traded in the 83.95-83.99 range. Spot USDINR closed at 83.97, loss of 1 ps for USD as against prior close of 83.98.
RBI reference rate was fixed at 83.98 on 12/09. Sept USD/INR closed at 84, loss of 3 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 84.03. Sep Euro/INR closed at 92.64, GBP/INR at 109.60 and Yen/INR at 58.86 . 1 year USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 2.21% p.a. FX reserves stood at USD 684 bn, as on Aug 30 th. Reserves climbed US D 3.45 bn w/w.
|
PAIRS |
RBI REF RATE (12/09) |
|
USDINR |
83.98 |
|
EURINR |
92.55 |
|
GBPINR |
109.61 |
|
JPYINR |
58.88 |
In Aug , FPI’S have bought Rs 9477 Cr of Equities and bought Rs 200 Cr of debt . In FY 23-24, FII’S have net bought Rs 206279 Cr of Equities and have net bought Rs 123120 Cr of debt.
Benchmark Nifty climbed 470 points (1.89%) y’day. US S&P climbed 41 points (0.75%) y’day. Nikkei climbed 3.55% and Hang Seng climbed 0.77% y’day.
Euro is now at 1.1010, Pound at 1.3034, Yen at 142.32.
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 2562 and WT1Crude at USD 69.50/Brent at USD 72.50.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 3.64% and 3 m libor closed at 5.20%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 6.97%.
Economic news: ECB Governing Council said it had lowered its deposit facility rate — the mechanism through which it steers monetary policy — by 25 basis points to 3.5%. ECB President Christine Lagarde stressed that the central bank was not “committed” to a particular rate path and will remain data-dependent prior to making future policy moves.
Indian CPI inflation rose marginally to 3.65% in Aug. Food inflation rose 5.66%. Core inflation remained steady at 3.5%. IIP climbed 4.83% in July. Mfrg climbed 4.6% and Electricity sector climbed 7.9% and Mining growth decelerated to 3.7%. Growth accelerated in capital goods (12 per cent) and intermediate goods (6.8 per cent). Growth in consumer durables (8.2 per cent) decelerated while consumer non-durables (-4.4 per cent) contracted, reflecting tepid consumer demand in the economy.
Data highlights: – US PPI climbed 0.2% m/m and weekly jobless claims climbed to 230k.
Friday’s calendar : – No major data release.
|
USD/INR |
|
83.99 |
83.95 |
|
|
EUR/USD |
1.1084 |
1.1080 |
1.1005 |
|
|
GBP/USD |
1.3134 |
1.3132 |
1.3032 |
|
|
USD/JPY |
141.22 |
143.04 |
141.43 |
Daily Support/Resistance table
|
Currency Pairs |
Pivot |
R1 |
R2 |
R3 |
S1 |
S2 |
S3 |
|
EURO/USD |
1.1055 |
1.1105 |
1.1130 |
1.1180 |
1.1030 |
1.0980 |
1.0955 |
|
USD/JPY |
141.99 |
142.55 |
143.61 |
144.17 |
140.94 |
140.37 |
139.32 |
|
GBP/USD |
1.3099 |
1.3166 |
1.3200 |
1.3267 |
1.3065 |
1.2998 |
1.2964 |
|
USD/INR |
83.97 |
83.99 |
84.01 |
|
83.95 |
83.93 |
|
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
|
Currency Pair |
Supports |
Resistances |
Trend |
Remarks |
|
EURO/USD |
1.1035/1.0950 |
1.1210/1.1340 |
UP |
DN<1.0950 |
|
GBP/USD |
1.3045/1.2925 |
1.3270/1.3450 |
UP |
SIDE<1.3045 |
|
USD/JPY |
142/139 |
149/152 |
DN |
SIDE>149 |
|
USD/INR |
83.76/83.65 |
84.10/84.30 |
UP |
SIDE<83.76 |
|
USD/CHF |
0.84 |
0.86/0.8730 |
DN |
SIDE>0.8730 |
Technicals: Spot closed above 50 and 200 day moving averages.20 day moving average is at 83.92. 50 day moving average is at 83.80. 200 day moving average is at 83.37. Daily MACD is in sell zone. Important support is at 83.75/83.65 and important resistance is at 84.10/84.30. Spot closed above the average level of the day.
Intraday supports and resistances for Sep contract are:
PP: 84.02, S1:84, S2:83.97, R1:84.05, R2:84.07.
Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
However on directional basis, suggest the following:
USD exports be hedged above 84.20+.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is above major moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.1205/1.1340. Next major support is at 1.1035/1.0950. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying an important top at 1.1205. Weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.06.
GBP/USD: The pair is above moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.2650 and weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.23. Important support is at 1.3050/1.2925. Important resistance is at1.3270/1.3450.
USD/YEN: The pair is below major averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 141.65. Important resistance is at 149/152 and support is at 141.65/139.
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