FX – MORNING UPDATE :
USDINR opened at 83.97 y’day and the pair traded in the 83.93-83.99 range. Spot USDINR closed at 83.98, gain of 2 ps for USD as against prior close of 83.96.
RBI reference rate was fixed at 83.95 on 11/09. Sept USD/INR closed at 84.03, gain of 2 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 84.01. Sep Euro/INR closed at 92.82, GBP/INR at 109.90 and Yen/INR at 59.34 . 1 year USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 2.20% p.a. FX reserves stood at USD 684 bn, as on Aug 30 th. Reserves climbed US D 3.45 bn w/w.
|
PAIRS |
RBI REF RATE (11/09) |
|
USDINR |
83.95 |
|
EURINR |
92.71 |
|
GBPINR |
109.85 |
|
JPYINR |
59.38 |
In Aug , FPI’S have bought Rs 9477 Cr of Equities and bought Rs 200 Cr of debt . In FY 23-24, FII’S have net bought Rs 206279 Cr of Equities and have net bought Rs 123120 Cr of debt.
Benchmark Nifty declined 122 points (0.49%) y’day. US S&P climbed 58 points (1.07%) y’day. Nikkei declined 1.63% and Hang Seng declined 0.73% y’day.
Euro is now at 1.1010, Pound at 1.3034, Yen at 142.32.
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 2514 and WT1Crude at USD 67.50/Brent at USD 71.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 3.66% and 3 m libor closed at 5.20%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 6.97%.
Economic news: USD rallied on stronger than expected CPI data which dimmed hopes of 50 bps rate cut. Investors seem to be digesting the likelihood that while inflation is cooling, the pace remains uneven, leaving the Fed with little room to justify a larger rate cut at this stage.
US CPI rose 0.2% mom in August, matched expectations. However, core CPI rose 0.3% mom, above expectation of 0.2% mom. Over the 12-month period, CPI slowed from 2.9% yoy to 2.5% yoy, below expectation of 2.6% yoy. That’s also the lowest annual increase since February 2021. But core CPI was unchanged at 3.2% yoy, matched expectations.
Indian CPI, IIP and US CPI are important data events for the week.
Data highlights: – UK claimant count change was reported at 23.7 k and unemployment rate was at 4.1%.
-UK industrial and manufacturing production declined -0.8% and -1% m/m.
Thursday’s calendar : – US PPI and weekly jobless claims
-ECB meeting.
|
USD/INR |
|
83.99 |
83.93 |
|
|
EUR/USD |
1.1010 |
1.1055 |
1.1002 |
|
|
GBP/USD |
1.3034 |
1.3112 |
1.3002 |
|
|
USD/JPY |
142.32 |
142.68 |
140.72 |
Daily Support/Resistance table
|
Currency Pairs |
Pivot |
R1 |
R2 |
R3 |
S1 |
S2 |
S3 |
|
EURO/USD |
1.1023 |
1.1044 |
1.1076 |
1.1097 |
1.0991 |
1.0970 |
1.0938 |
|
USD/JPY |
142.01 |
143.30 |
143.97 |
145.26 |
141.34 |
140.05 |
139.38 |
|
GBP/USD |
1.3051 |
1.3100 |
1.3161 |
1.3210 |
1.2990 |
1.2941 |
1.2880 |
|
USD/INR |
83.97 |
84 |
84.03 |
|
83.95 |
83.91 |
|
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
|
Currency Pair |
Supports |
Resistances |
Trend |
Remarks |
|
EURO/USD |
1.1035/1.0950 |
1.1210/1.1340 |
UP |
DN<1.0950 |
|
GBP/USD |
1.3045/1.2925 |
1.3270/1.3450 |
UP |
SIDE<1.3045 |
|
USD/JPY |
142/139 |
149/152 |
DN |
SIDE>149 |
|
USD/INR |
83.76/83.65 |
84.10/84.30 |
UP |
SIDE<83.76 |
|
USD/CHF |
0.84 |
0.86/0.8730 |
DN |
SIDE>0.8730 |
Technicals: Spot closed above 50 and 200 day moving averages.20 day moving average is at 83.92. 50 day moving average is at 83.79. 200 day moving average is at 83.37. Daily MACD is in sell zone. Important support is at 83.75/83.65 and important resistance is at 84.10/84.30. Spot closed above the average level of the day.
Intraday supports and resistances for Sep contract are:
PP: 84.02, S1:84, S2:83.97, R1:84.05, R2:84.07.
Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
However on directional basis, suggest the following:
USD exports be hedged above 84.20+.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is above major moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.1205/1.1340. Next major support is at 1.1035/1.0950. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying an important top at 1.1205. Weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.06.
GBP/USD: The pair is above moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.2650 and weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.23. Important support is at 1.3050/1.2925. Important resistance is at1.3270/1.3450.
USD/YEN: The pair is below major averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 141.65. Important resistance is at 149/152 and support is at 141.65/139.
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