FX MORNING UPDATE              



USDINR opened at 69.68 Y’day the pair traded in the 69.25-69.76 range. Spot USDINR closed at 69.35, loss of 19 ps for USD as against prior close of 69.54. RBI reference rate was fixed at 69.66. March USD/INR closed at 69.44, loss of 21 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 69.65. March Euro/INR closed at 78.64, GBP/INR at 91.90 and Yen/INR at 62.32.

FII’S have invested  Rs 10602 Cr in Indian Equities in March. FII’S have nett bought Rs 25426 Cr of Indian Equities in this calendar Year till date. FII’S have invested Rs 4552 Cr of Indian debt securities in March. FII’S have sold Rs 7339 Cr of Indian debt in this calendar year till date.

Benchmark Nifty closed flat  y’day. DOW climbed 148 points (0.58%) y’day. Nikkei declined 0.02% and Hang seng climbed 0.15% y’day..

Euro is now at 1.1322, Pound at 1.3247,Yen at 111.58.    

Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1299 and WT1Crude at USD 58.59 /Brent at USD 67.20.

Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 2.61% and 3 m libor closed at 2.61%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.36%.        

Economic news: RBI is set to swap USD 5 bn into Rupees to provide liquidity and to stem Rupee gains. RBI has been using OMO operations till now. Since liquidity tightens during fiscal year end, RBI’s decision may serve twin purposes of shoring FX reserves, inject liquidity and bring down fwd premia. MIFOR and fwd premia crashed early y’day before recovery in late afternoon trades. 1 Yr premia fell to 3.6%. This move could reduce long term hedging cost for loans and for FII’S who invest in debt markets. In another significant move, RBI has reinstated buyer’s credit which was abolished last year. Spread cost has been capped at 2.5%.

Chinese economic data missed expectation. Industrial growth slowed to 5.3%, retail sales climbed 8.2% and unemployment rate jumped to 5.3%.

Data highlights : US Weekly jobless claims inched to 229k and new home sales.

Friday’s calendar: -US industrial production

-EU CPI                                                                                                                                   

USD/INR   69.75 69.25
EUR/USD 1.1322 1.1336 1.1294
GBP/USD 1.3247 1.3332 1.3209
USD/JPY 111.58 111.83 111.14

Daily Support/Resistance table

CurrencyPairs Pivot R1 R2 R3 S1 S2 S3
EURO/USD 1.1312 1.1330 1.1354 1.1372 1.1288 1.1270 1.1245
GBP/USD 1.3266 1.3323 1.3389 1.3446 1.3200 1.3143 1.3077
USD/JPY 111.58


112.02 112.27 112.71


111.33 110.89 110.63


USD/INR 69.45 69.65 69.96   69.14 68.94  



Curency Pair Supports Resistances Trend Remarks
EURO/USD 1.1120 1.1290/1.1420 DN UP>1.1520
GBP/USD 1.2880/1.2770 1.3350/1.3575 UP DN<1.2880
USD/JPY 110 112.10 UP DN<110
USD/INR 69.25 70.85/71.50 DN UP>71.50
USD/CHF 0.9925 1.0175 UP  DN <0.9715


Technicals: Spot closed below all major moving averages. 20 day moving average is at 70.61. 50 day moving average is at 70.81. 200 day moving average is at 70.46. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying top at 71.84. Important support zone is at 69.30/68.80.Important resistances are at 70.40 and later at 70.85.Spot closed below its average level of the day.  

Intra day supports and resistances for March contract are:

PP: 69.54,S1:69.24, S2:69.05, R1:69.73, R2:70.03.                                                         

Hedging strategy for USD/INR: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.


EURO/USD: The pair is below all major moving averages. Next Major resistance is at 1.1290 and later at 1.1420. Major support is at 1.1120. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying an important top at 1.1420. Weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.1215.

GBP/USD: The pair is bullish and trading above major moving averages.Daily MACD  is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.3350 and weekly MACD is  in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.2440. Important resistance is at 1.3350 and later at 1.3575. Important support is at 1.2880 and later at 1.2770.

USD/YEN: The pair is above all major moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 105. Next important resistance is at 112.50. Important support is at 110.


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