FX – MORNING UPDATE :
USDINR opened at 83.96 y’day and the pair traded in the 83.96-83.99 range. Spot USDINR closed at 83.98, unchanged for USD as against prior close of 83.96.
RBI reference rate was fixed at 83.98 on 05/09. Sept USD/INR closed at 84.03, unchanged for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 84.03. Sep Euro/INR closed at 93.33, GBP/INR at 110.59 and Yen/INR at 58.60 . 1 year USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 2.10% p.a. FX reserves stood at USD 681 bn, as on Aug 23 rd. Reserves climbed US D 7 bn w/w.
|
PAIRS |
RBI REF RATE (04/09) |
|
USDINR |
83.98 |
|
EURINR |
93.10 |
|
GBPINR |
110.41 |
|
JPYINR |
58.66 |
In Aug , FPI’S have bought Rs 11930 Cr of Equities and bought Rs 13897 Cr of debt . In FY 23-24, FII’S have net bought Rs 206279 Cr of Equities and have net bought Rs 123120 Cr of debt.
Benchmark Nifty declined 53 points (0.21%) Y’day. US S&P declined 17 points (0.30%) y’day. Nikkei declined 1.07% and Hang Seng declined 0.07% y’day.
Euro is now at 1.1112, Pound at 1.3175, Yen at 143.23.
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 2515 and WT1Crude at USD 69.50/Brent at USD 73.30.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 3.76% and 3 m libor closed at 5.32%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 6.98%.
Economic news: US ADP report revealed that US private employment grew by 99k in August, falling short of the expected 150k. The job gains were spread unevenly across sectors, with goods-producing jobs rising by 27k and service-providing jobs adding 72k.
In July, Eurozone retail sales volumes rose by 0.1% mom, in line with market expectations. ifo stated that German economy remains in “stuck in crisis”, impacted by both economic and structural challenges. Following last year’s -0.3% contraction, the country’s price-adjusted GDP is expected to “only stagnate” in 2024.
Focus will be on US employment data.
Data highlights: – US Weekly jobless claims dipped to 227k, ADP employment report showed that private sector added only 99k jobs.
-US ISM(services) climbed to 51.5.
-German factory orders climbed 2.9% m/m.
-UK PMI(construction) was reported at 53.6.
Friday’s calendar : – US Nonfarm payrolls
-German industrial production.
|
USD/INR |
|
83.99 |
83.96 |
|
|
EUR/USD |
1.1112 |
1.1120 |
1.1075 |
|
|
GBP/USD |
1.3175 |
1.3186 |
1.3137 |
|
|
USD/JPY |
143.23 |
144.24 |
142.86 |
Daily Support/Resistance table
|
Currency Pairs |
Pivot |
R1 |
R2 |
R3 |
S1 |
S2 |
S3 |
|
EURO/USD |
1.1102 |
1.1129 |
1.1147 |
1.1174 |
1.1084 |
1.1057 |
1.1039 |
|
USD/JPY |
143.50 |
144.14 |
144.88 |
145.52 |
142.76 |
142.12 |
141.37 |
|
GBP/USD |
1.3166 |
1.3195 |
1,3215 |
1.3244 |
1.3146 |
1.3117 |
1.3097 |
|
USD/INR |
83.98 |
83.99 |
84.01 |
|
83.97 |
83.95 |
|
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
|
Currency Pair |
Supports |
Resistances |
Trend |
Remarks |
|
EURO/USD |
1.1035/1.0950 |
1.1210/1.1340 |
UP |
DN<1.0950 |
|
GBP/USD |
1.3045/1.2880 |
1.3270/1.3450 |
SIDE |
DN<1.2850 |
|
USD/JPY |
142 |
149/152 |
DN |
SIDE>149 |
|
USD/INR |
83.76/83.65 |
84.10/84.30 |
UP |
SIDE<83.76 |
|
USD/CHF |
0.84 |
0.86/0.8730 |
DN |
SIDE>0.8730 |
Technicals: Spot closed above 50 and 200 day moving averages.20 day moving average is at 83.92. 50 day moving average is at 83.75. 200 day moving average is at 83.35. Daily MACD is in sell zone. Important support is at 83.75/83.65 and important resistance is at 84.10/84.30. Spot closed at the average level of the day.
Intraday supports and resistances for Sep contract are:
PP: 84.03, S1:84.01, S2:83.99, R1:84.05, R2:84.07.
Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
However on directional basis, suggest the following:
USD exports be hedged above 84.10+.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is above major moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.1205/1.1340. Next major support is at 1.1035/1.0950. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying an important top at 1.1205. Weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.06.
GBP/USD: The pair is above moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.2650 and weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.23. Important support is at 1.3050/1.2850. Important resistance is at1.3270/1.3450.
USD/YEN: The pair is below major averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 141.65. Important resistance is at 149/152 and support is at 141.65.
Click to open an Account : https://ekyc.gwcindia.in/client/