13/03/2019
USDINR opened at 69.75 Y’day the pair traded in the 69.50-69.76 range. Spot USDINR closed at 69.71, loss of 17 ps for USD as against prior close of 69.88. RBI reference rate was fixed at 69.59. March USD/INR closed at 69.81, loss of 22 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 70.03. March Euro/INR closed at 78.75, GBP/INR at 90.99 and Yen/INR at 62.88.
FII’S have invested Rs 10602 Cr in Indian Equities in March. FII’S have nett bought Rs 25426 Cr of Indian Equities in this calendar Year till date. FII’S have invested Rs 4552 Cr of Indian debt securities in March. FII’S have sold Rs 7339 Cr of Indian debt in this calendar year till date.
Benchmark Nifty climbed 1.19% y’day. DOW climbed 200 points (0.79%) y’day. Nikkei climbed 1.79% and Hang seng climbed 1.46% y’day..
Euro is now at 1.1286, Pound at 1.3085,Yen at 111.27.
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1304 and WT1Crude at USD 57.13 /Brent at USD 66.84.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 2.643% and 3 m libor closed at 2.61%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.36%.
Economic news: Global and Indian Equities rallied on expectation of a positive Brexit vote after EU agreed to some key changes sought by UK. However, there was still lack of clarity on major provisions. UK Parliament is to vote on the new Brexit proposal.
Indian IIP declined to 1.7% in Jan vs 2.8% in Dec, while manufacturing production declined to 1.3% m/m. Feb retail inflation climbed to 2.57% from 2.05% in Jan.
UK GDP grew strongly by 0.5% in January, well above expectation of 0.2% mom.
Data highlights : – US CPI climbed 0.2% m/m.
-UK GDP climbed 0.5% m/m, industrial production climbed 0.6% m/m and manufacturing production climbed 0.8% m/m.
Wednesday’s calendar:US durables order, PPI and construction spending
-EU industrial production.
| USD/INR | 69.76 | 69.50 | |
| EUR/USD | 1.1286 | 1.1307 | 1.1249 |
| GBP/USD | 1.3085 | 1.3247 | 1.3007 |
| USD/JPY | 111.27 | 111.38 | 111.14 |
Daily Support/Resistance table
| CurrencyPairs | Pivot | R1 | R2 | R3 | S1 | S2 | S3 |
| EURO/USD | 1.1281 | 1.1313 | 1.1339 | 1.1371 | 1.1255 | 1.1223 | 1.1197 |
| GBP/USD | 1.3106 | 1.3205 | 1.3346 | 1.3446 | 1.2965 | 1.2866 | 1.2725 |
| USD/JPY | 111.30
|
111.49 | 111.65 | 111.84
|
111.14 | 110.95 | 110.79
|
| USD/INR | 69.65 | 69.81 | 69.92 | 69.54 | 69.38
|
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
| Curency Pair | Supports | Resistances | Trend | Remarks |
| EURO/USD | 1.1120 | 1.1290/1.1420 | DN | UP>1.1520 |
| GBP/USD | 1.2880/1.2770 | 1.3350/1.3575 | UP | DN<1.2880 |
| USD/JPY | 110 | 112.10 | UP | DN<110 |
| USD/INR | 69.80/69.40 | 70.85/71.50 | DN | UP>71.50 |
| USD/CHF | 0.9925 | 1.0175 | UP | DN <0.9715 |
Technicals: Spot closed below all major moving averages. 20 day moving average is at 70.77. 50 day moving average is at 70.82. 200 day moving average is at 70.46. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying top at 71.84. Important support zone is at 69.30.Important resistances are at 70.40 and later at 70.85.Spot closed above its average level of the day.
Intra day supports and resistances for March contract are:
PP: 69.76,S1:69.65, S2:69.50, R1:69.91, R2:70.02.
Hedging strategy for USD/INR: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is below all major moving averages. Next Major resistance is at 1.1290 and later at 1.1420. Major support is at 1.1120. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying an important top at 1.1420. Weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.1215.
GBP/USD: The pair is bullish and trading above major moving averages.Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.3350 and weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.2440. Important resistance is at 1.3350 and later at 1.3575. Important support is at 1.2880 and later at 1.2770.
USD/YEN: The pair is above all major moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 105. Next important resistance is at 112.50. Important support is at 110.
