FX – MORNING UPDATE :
USDINR opened at 83.94 y’day and the pair traded in the 83.93-83.97 range. Spot USDINR closed at 83.96, gain of 4 ps for USD as against prior close of 83.92.
RBI reference rate was fixed at 83.95 on 03/09. Sept USD/INR closed at 84.03, gain of 5 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 83.98. Sep Euro/INR closed at 92.89, GBP/INR at 110.24 and Yen/INR at 57.58. 1 year USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 2.10% p.a. FX reserves stood at USD 681 bn, as on Aug 23 rd. Reserves climbed US D 7 bn w/w.
|
PAIRS |
RBI REF RATE (03/09) |
|
USDINR |
83.95 |
|
EURINR |
92.80 |
|
GBPINR |
110.09 |
|
JPYINR |
57.44 |
In Aug , FPI’S have bought Rs 11930 Cr of Equities and bought Rs 13897 Cr of debt . In FY 23-24, FII’S have net bought Rs 206279 Cr of Equities and have net bought Rs 123120 Cr of debt.
Benchmark Nifty closed flat (0%) Y’day. US S&P declined 119 points (2.12%) y’day. Nikkei climbed 0.14% and Hang Seng declined 0.23% y’day.
Euro is now at 1.1052, Pound at 1.3104, Yen at 145.19.
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 2492 and WT1Crude at USD 70/Brent at USD 73.30.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 3.91% and 3 m libor closed at 5.32%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 6.98%.
Economic news: US ISM Manufacturing PMI rose from 46.8 to 47.2 in August, below expectation of 47.8,, indicates a fifth consecutive month of contraction.
ISM said: “The past relationship between the Manufacturing PMI® and the overall economy indicates that the August reading (47.2 percent) corresponds to a change of plus-1.3 percent in real gross domestic product (GDP) on an annualized basis.”
Oil prices suffered a major selloff on the news centered about the potential resolution of a dispute in Libya that has caused a halt in the country’s crude production and exports.
US equity indices selloff was fueled by manufacturing data that fueled concerns over the economic outlook. Probe into Nvidia on antitrust laws also dragged IT stocks lower.
Focus will be on US employment data.
Data highlights: – US ISM(mfrg) was reported at 47.2 and construction spending declined -0.3% m/m.
Wednesday’s calendar : – US factory orders
-EU PMI(services)
-UK PMI(services)
|
USD/INR |
|
83.97 |
83.93 |
|
|
EUR/USD |
1.1052 |
1.1071 |
1.1027 |
|
|
GBP/USD |
1.3104 |
1.3148 |
1.3087 |
|
|
USD/JPY |
145.19 |
147.21 |
145.20 |
Daily Support/Resistance table
|
Currency Pairs |
Pivot |
R1 |
R2 |
R3 |
S1 |
S2 |
S3 |
|
EURO/USD |
1.1049 |
1.1071 |
1.1093 |
1.1116 |
1.1027 |
1.1005 |
1.0983 |
|
USD/JPY |
145.89 |
146.68 |
148 |
148.78 |
144.57 |
143.78 |
142.46 |
|
GBP/USD |
1.3116 |
1.3145 |
1.3177 |
1.3206 |
1.3084 |
1.3055 |
1.3023 |
|
USD/INR |
83.95 |
83.98 |
83.99 |
|
83.93 |
83.91 |
|
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
|
Currency Pair |
Supports |
Resistances |
Trend |
Remarks |
|
EURO/USD |
1.10/1.0950 |
1.1210/1.1340 |
UP |
DN<1.0950 |
|
GBP/USD |
1.3045/1.2880 |
1.3270/1.3450 |
SIDE |
DN<1.2850 |
|
USD/JPY |
142 |
149/152 |
DN |
SIDE>149 |
|
USD/INR |
83.76/83.65 |
84.10/84.30 |
UP |
SIDE<83.76 |
|
USD/CHF |
0.84 |
0.86/0.8730 |
DN |
SIDE>0.8730 |
Technicals: Spot closed above 50 and 200 day moving averages.20 day moving average is at 83.91. 50 day moving average is at 83.73. 200 day moving average is at 83.35. Daily MACD is in sell zone. Important support is at 83.75/83.65 and important resistance is at 84.10/84.30. Spot closed above the average level of the day.
Intraday supports and resistances for Sep contract are:
PP: 84.02, S1:84.01, S2:83.99, R1:84.04, R2:84.05.
Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
However on directional basis, suggest the following:
USD exports be hedged above 84.10+.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is above major moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.1205/1.1340. Next major support is at 1.10/1.0950. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying an important top at 1.1205. Weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.06.
GBP/USD: The pair is above moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.2650 and weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.23. Important support is at 1.3050/1.2850. Important resistance is at1.3270/1.3450.
USD/YEN: The pair is below major averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 141.65. Important resistance is at 149/152 and support is at 141.65.
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