USDINR opened at 71.18 y’day the pair traded in the 70.99-71.34 range. Spot USDINR closed at 71.07, gain of 9 ps for USD as against prior close of 70.98. RBI reference rate was fixed at 71.04. March USD/INR closed at 71.31, gain of 7 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 71.24. Feb Euro/INR closed at 81.22, GBP/INR at 94.20 and Yen/INR at 64.48.
Expect USDINR spot to trade in the 70.90-71.10 range. Spot and cash imports can be covered on decline to 70.92 and Cash exports can be covered at around 71.10.
FII’S have sold Rs 716 Cr of Indian Equities in Feb. FII’S have sold Rs 1221 Cr of Indian Equities in this calendar Year till date. FII’S have sold Rs 1852 Cr of Indian debt securities in Feb. FII’S have sold Rs 4453 Cr of Indian debt in this calendar year till date.
Benchmark Nifty declined 0.41% y’day. DOW declined 33 points (0.13%) y’day. Nikkei declined 0.37% and Hang seng declined 0.65% y’day.
Euro is now at 1.1381, Pound at 1.3247,Yen at 110.58.
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1331 and WT1Crude at USD 56 /Brent at USD 65.75.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 2.636% and 3 m libor closed at 2.69%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.42%.
Economic news: Rupee spiked to 71.34 y’day and then recovered on RBI selling. Focus is on Brexit, US China trade deal and Chinese data.
Data highlights : US building permits climbed to 1.33 mn, housing starts dipped to 1.08 mn.
-US Consumer confidence climbed to 131.4 and House price index climbed 4.2% y/y.
-German Gfk consumer sentiment survey was reported at 10.8.
Wednesday’s calendar: US factory orders and pending home sales
| USD/INR | 71.34 | 70.99 | |
| EUR/USD | 1.1381 | 1.1403 | 1.1345 |
| GBP/USD | 1.3247 | 1.3289 | 1.3123 |
| USD/JPY | 110.58 | 111.07 | 110.43 |
Daily Support/Resistance table
| CurrencyPairs | Pivot | R1 | R2 | R3 | S1 | S2 | S3 |
| EURO/USD | 1.1380 | 1.1415 | 1.1438 | 1.1473 | 1.1357 | 1.1322 | 1.1298 |
| GBP/USD | 1.3223 | 1.3323 | 1.3389 | 1.3489 | 1.3157 | 1.3057 | 1.2991 |
| USD/JPY | 110.69
|
110.95 | 111.34 | 111.60
|
110.31 | 110.04 | 109.66
|
| USD/INR | 71.13 | 71.27 | 71.48 | 70.92 | 70.78
|
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
| Curency Pair | Supports | Resistances | Trend | Remarks |
| EURO/USD | 1.1230 | 1.1520/1.1575 | DN | UP>1.1520 |
| GBP/USD | 1.2770 | 1.3220 | UP | DN<1.2770 |
| USD/JPY | 110/108.50 | 111.50/112 | SIDE | UP>112 |
| USD/INR | 70.85/70.55/70.40 | 71.53/71.85 | DN | UP>71.85 |
| USD/CHF | 0.9990/0.9860 | 1.0130 | UP | SIDE <0.9850 |
Technicals: Spot closed below 100 day moving averages but still above 200 day major moving average. 20 day moving average is at 71.25. 50 day moving average is at 70.81. 200 day moving average is at 70.30. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying top at 71.84. Important support zone is at 70.85 and later at 70.40 . Spot closed below its average level of the day.
Intra day supports and resistances for March contract are:
PP: 71.37,S1:71.16, S2:71.01, R1:71.52, R2:71.73.
Hedging strategy for USD/INR: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is below 200 day moving average. Next Major resistance is at 1.1520 and later at 1.1570. Major support is at 1.1230/1.12. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying an important bottom at 1.1230. Weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.1215.
GBP/USD: The pair is bullish and trading above major moving averages.Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.2770 and weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.2440. Important resistance is at 1.3220. Important support is at 1.2770.
USD/YEN: The pair is below major moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 105. Next important resistance is at 111.50/112. Important support is at 110.
