09/05/2018

USDINR opened at 66.82 y’day and the pair traded in the 66.82-67.20 range. Spot USDINR closed at 67.20, gain of 34 ps for USD as against prior close of 66.86.RBI reference rate was fixed at 67.08.  Rupee recovered to 66.98 after hitting 67.28 as RBI sold USD through nationalized banks. May USD/INR closed at 67.23, loss of 7 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 67.30. May Euro/INR closed at 79.90, GBP/INR at 90.87 and Yen/INR at 61.73.

FII’S sold Rs 6467 Cr of Indian Equities in April . FII’S also sold 11868 Cr of Indian debt securities in April . On a cumulative basis, FII’S have bought Rupees 7979 Cr of Indian Equities till date for this calendar year and have sold  Rupees 15023 Cr of Indian debt in this calendar year till date.

Benchmark Nifty closed flat y’day. DOW closed flat (0.00%) Y’day.Nikkei climbed 0.18%  and Hang seng climbed 1.36% y’day.

Euro is now at 1.1852 , Pound at 1.3529,Yen at 109.53    

Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1311 and WT1Crude at USD 70.66.

Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 2.97% and 3 m libor closed at 2.36%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.58%.        

Economic news: US President annulled 2015 deal with Iran on nuclear program and reinstated sanctions which existed prior to 2015. Oil rose as the new development risks Geo political tensions and could tighetn Oil supplies.

Fed Chairman said that “Fed policy normalization has proceeded without disruption to financial markets, and market participants’ expectations for policy seem reasonably well aligned with policymakers’ expectation.” He also said that Fed and other advanced economies “played a relatively limited role” in the surge of capital flow to emerging markets in recent years. Hence, “there is good reason to think the normalization of monetary policies in advanced economies should continue to prove manageable for” emerging economies.”

Chinese exports jumped 12.9%, while imports surged 21.5%. Trade surplus with US expanded to USD 22.2 bn, up from USD 15.4 bn in prior month. In this calendar year till date, Chinese trade surplus rose to USD 80.4 bn.

Data Highlights: – No major data.

Wednesday’s calendar: – EU PPI

Daily Support/Resistance table

MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE

Technicals: Spot closed above 100 and 200 day major moving averages. 20 day moving         is at 66.10. 50 day moving average is at 65.43. 200 day moving average is at 64.58. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying bottom at 64.85 . Important support zone is at 66.50 and later at 66.25/65.90. Important resistance is  at 67.40. Spot closed below its average level of the day.  

Intra day supports and resistances for May contract are:

PP: 67.26,S1:67.08, S2:66.93, R1:67.41, R2:67.59

Hedging strategy for USD/INR: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.

CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:

EURO/USD: The pair is below all major moving averages. Next Major resistance is at 1.2150 and later at 1.2210. Major support is at 1.1910 and later at 1.1710. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying an important top at 1.2415. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.2560.

GBP/USD: Trend is bearish in daily chart. Daily MACD  is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.4375 and weekly MACD is  in sell zone, implying important top at 1.4375. The pair is trading below all major moving average. Important resistance is at 1.3710 and later at 1.3965. Important support is at 1.3460 and later at 1.33.   

USD/YEN: The pair is below 200 day major moving average, but above 50 and 100 day moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 104.56. Important support is at 108. Important resistance is  110.