FX – MORNING UPDATE

FX MORNING UPDATE                                                                                      

USDINR opened  at 71.30 on Monday the pair traded in the 71.30-71.52 range. Spot USDINR closed at 71.35, gain of 12 ps for USD as against prior close of 71.23. RBI reference rate was fixed at 71.47. Feb USD/INR closed at 71.41, gain of 10 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 71.31. Feb Euro/INR closed at 80.97, GBP/INR at 92.42 and Yen/INR at 64.67.

Indian FX market was closed y’day.Expect USDINR spot to trade in the 71.20-71.60 range today. Spot and cash imports can be covered on decline to 71.20 and Cash exports can be covered at around 71.60 today.

FII’S have bought Rs 2566 Cr of Indian Equities in Feb. FII’S have bought Rs 2062 Cr of Indian Equities in this calendar Year till date. FII’S have sold Rs 150 Cr of Indian debt securities in Feb. FII’S have sold Rs 2752 Cr of Indian debt in this calendar year till date.

Benchmark Nifty declined 0.34% y’day. DOW climbed 3 points (0.02%) y’day. Nikkei climbed 0.10% and Hang seng declined 0.42 %. y’day.

Euro is now at 1.1346, Pound at 1.3063,Yen at 110.83.    

Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1348 and WT1Crude at USD 56.72 /Brent at USD 66.59.

Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 2.65% and 3 m libor closed at 2.657%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.36%.        

Economic news: EU and German economic survey indicators point to stagnant growth in Germany. Indicators are well below the long term averages.

The US Commerce Department submitted the Section 232 national security report on auto imports to the White House on Sunday. US President has 90 days to make a decision on whether to act up the recommendations, which could include tariffs.

European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker believed that US will refrain from imposing auto tariffs on EU cars for now.

US- China trade talks resumed in US y’day. It is widely believed that this round of talks could lead to a MOU framework.

Data highlights : -EU and German Zew survey indicators was reported at -16.6 and -13.4  respectively.

-UK unemployment rate was reported at 4% and claimant count change was reported at 14.2k.

Wednesday’s calendar: – FOMC minutes

USD/INR   71.30 71.52
EUR/USD 1.1346 1.1358 1.1274
GBP/USD 1.3063 1.3074 1.2896
USD/JPY 110.83 110.82 110.45

Daily Support/Resistance table

CurrencyPairs Pivot R1 R2 R3 S1 S2 S3
EURO/USD 1.1324 1.1374 1.1408 1.1458 1.1290 1.1240 1.1205
GBP/USD 1.3010 1.3124 1.3188 1.3302 1.2946 1.2832 1.2768
USD/JPY 110.62

 

110.79 111 111.17

 

110.42 110.25 110.04

 

USD/INR 71.39 71.48 71.61   71.26 71.17

 

 

 

 

MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE

Curency Pair Supports Resistances Trend Remarks
EURO/USD 1.1265/1.1215 1.1520/1.1575 DN UP>1.1520
GBP/USD 1.2770 1.30/1.3220 UP DN<1.2770
USD/JPY 109.75/108.50 111.50/112 SIDE UP>112
USD/INR 70.85/70.55/70.40 71.85 DN UP>71.85
USD/CHF 0.9990/0.9860 1.0130 UP  SIDE <0.9850

Technicals: Spot closed below 100 day moving averages but still above 200 day major moving average. 20 day moving average is at 71.24. 50 day moving average is at 70.87. 200 day moving average is at 70.20. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying top at 71.84. Important support zone is at 70.40 . Spot closed below its average level of the day.  

Intra day supports and resistances for Feb contract are:

PP: 71.36,S1:71.20, S2:71.09, R1:71.47, R2:71.63.                                                          

Hedging strategy for USD/INR: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.

CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:

EURO/USD: The pair is below 200 day moving average. Next Major resistance is at 1.1520 and later at 1.1570. Major support is at 1.1265/1.12. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying an important top at 1.1520. Weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.1215.

GBP/USD: The pair is sideways and trading between major moving averages.Daily MACD  is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.3220 and weekly MACD is  in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.2440. Important resistance is at 1.3220. Important support is at 1.2770.

USD/YEN: The pair is below major moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 105. Next important resistance is at 111.50/112.

 

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