FX MORNING UPDATE   

                                                                               

USDINR opened  at 70.86 y’day the pair traded in the 70.79-71.18 range. Spot USDINR closed at 71.16, gain of 36 ps for USD as against prior close of 70.80. RBI reference rate was fixed at 70.94. Feb USD/INR closed at 71.24, gain of 33 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 70.91. Feb Euro/INR closed at 80.42, GBP/INR at 91.46 and Yen/INR at 64.22.

FII’S have bought Rs 2517 Cr of Indian Equities in Feb. FII’S have bought Rs 2013 Cr of Indian Equities in this calendar Year till date. FII’S have sold Rs 2699 Cr of Indian debt securities in Feb . FII’S have sold Rs 5300 Cr of Indian debt in this calendar year till date.

Benchmark Nifty declined 0.44% y’day. DOW declined 104 points (0.41%) Y’day. Nikkei declined 0.02% and Hang seng declined 0.23 %. y’day.

Euro is now at 1.1289, Pound at 1.2816,Yen at 110.28.     

Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1315 and WT1Crude at USD 54.63 /Brent at USD 64.84.

Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 2.708% and 3 m libor closed at 2.657%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.33%.           

Economic news: Eurozone GDP grew 0.2% qoq in Q4, unchanged from Q3 and matched expectations. Annually, GDP grew 1.2% yoy. Over the whole year 2018, GDP grew 1.8%. Employment grew 0.3% qoq, above expectation of 0.2% qoq. Germany GDP stagnated in Q4 and grew 0.0% qoq. But that was enough to narrow escape a technical recession following -0.2% contraction in Q3.

Japanese GDP grew 0.3% qoq in Q3, rebounding from Q3’s -0.6% qoq contraction. The good news is that Japan avoided a technical recession of two consecutive quarters of contraction. But growth was disappointing and missed expectation of 0.4% qoq. 

US headline sales dropped -1.2% versus expectation of 0.1% mom rise. That’s also the largest decline in nine years since September 2009. Ex-auto sales dropped -1.8% versus expectation of 0.0% mom.

Data highlights : US weekly jobless claims climbed higher to 239k, retail sales declined -1.2% m/m and PPI declined -0.1% m/m.

Friday’s calendar: – US industrial production, NY mfrg index

-UK retail sales.

USD/INR   71.18 70.79
EUR/USD 1.1289 1.1312 1.1250
GBP/USD 1.2795 1.2878 1.2773
USD/JPY 110.28 111.13 110.40

Daily Support/Resistance table

CurrencyPairs Pivot R1 R2 R3 S1 S2 S3
EURO/USD 1.1286 1.1322 1.1348 1.1384 1.1260 1.1224 1.1199
GBP/USD 1.2816 1.2859 1.2921 1.2964 1.2754 1.2711 1.2649
USD/JPY 110.69

 

110.98 111.41 111.70

 

110.25 109.97 109.53

 

USD/INR 71.04 71.29 71.43   70.90 70.65

 

 

 MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE

Curency Pair Supports Resistances Trend Remarks
EURO/USD 1.1285/1.1215 1.1520/1.1575 DN UP>1.1520
GBP/USD 1.29/1.28 1.3220 UP DN<1.28
USD/JPY 108.50/107.75 111/112 SIDE UP>112
USD/INR 70.55/70.20 70.85/71.02 DN UP>71.50
USD/CHF 0.9860/0.9715 1.00/1.10130 UP  SIDE <0.9850

Technicals: Spot closed below 20, and 100 day moving averages but still above 200 day major moving average. 20 day moving average is at 71.18. 50 day moving average is at 70.86. 200 day moving average is at 70.15. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying top at 71.84. Important support zone is at 70.40 . Spot closed above its average level of the day.  

Intra day supports and resistances for Feb contract are:

PP: 71.11,S1:70.95, S2:70.66, R1:71.40, R2:71.56.                                                          

Hedging strategy for USD/INR: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.

CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:

EURO/USD: The pair is below 200 day moving average. Next Major resistance is at 1.1520 and later at 1.1570. Major support is at 1.1265/1.12. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying an important top at 1.1520. Weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.1215.

GBP/USD: The pair is bullish and trading between major moving averages.Daily MACD  is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.3220 and weekly MACD is  in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.2440. Important resistance is at 1.3220. Important support is at 1.29 and later at 1.28.

USD/YEN: The pair is below major moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 105. Next important resistance is at 111/112.

 

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