USDINR opened at 71.26 y’day the pair traded in the 71.09-71.29 range. Spot USDINR closed at 71.17, loss of 14 ps for USD as against prior close of 71.31. RBI reference rate was fixed at 71.16. Feb USD/INR closed at 71.31, loss of 12 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 71.43. Feb Euro/INR closed at 80.81, GBP/INR at 92.25 and Yen/INR at 64.82. Rupee has declined 2 Rupees since its recent level of 69.20 traded on 7 th Jan.
FII’S have bought Rs 2517 Cr of Indian Equities in Feb. FII’S have bought Rs 2013 Cr of Indian Equities in this calendar Year till date. FII’S have sold Rs 2699 Cr of Indian debt securities in Feb . FII’S have sold Rs 5300 Cr of Indian debt in this calendar year till date.
Benchmark Nifty declined 0.50% y’day. DOW declined 53 points (0.21%) Y’day. Nikkei declined 2.01% and Hang seng climbed 0.71 %. y’day.
Euro is now at 1.1281, Pound at 1.2868,Yen at 110.49.
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1311 and WT1Crude at USD 52.79 /Brent at USD 61.97.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 2.66% and 3 m libor closed at 2.90%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.34%.
Economic news: Indian IIP, CPI and US-China trade progress will be the focus in coming week.
UK GDP grew by 0.2% q/q in Q4. UK economy contracted in Dec by -0.4% m/m. UK growth averages 1.4% y/y, slowest since 2012.
Data highlights : – UK industrial and manufacturing production declined -0.5% and -0.7% m/m respectively.
Tuesday’s calendar: No major data release.
| USD/INR | 71.29 | 71.09 | |
| EUR/USD | 1.1281 | 1.1330 | 1.1266 |
| GBP/USD | 1.2868 | 1.2939 | 1.2846 |
| USD/JPY | 110.49 | 110.47 | 109.78 |
Daily Support/Resistance table
| CurrencyPairs | Pivot | R1 | R2 | R3 | S1 | S2 | S3 |
| EURO/USD | 1.1292 | 1.1318 | 1.1356 | 1.1382 | 1.1254 | 1.1228 | 1.1190 |
| GBP/USD | 1.2883 | 1.2920 | 1.2976 | 1.3013 | 1.2827 | 1.2790 | 1.2733 |
| USD/JPY | 110.21
|
110.64 | 110.90 | 111.34
|
109.95 | 109.52 | 109.25
|
| USD/INR | 71.18 | 71.27 | 71.38 | 71.02 | 70.98
|
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
| Curency Pair | Supports | Resistances | Trend | Remarks |
| EURO/USD | 1.1285/1.1215 | 1.1520/1.1575 | DN | UP>1.1520 |
| GBP/USD | 1.29/1.28 | 1.3220 | UP | DN<1.28 |
| USD/JPY | 108.50/107.75 | 111/112 | SIDE | UP>112 |
| USD/INR | 71/70.85 | 71.80 | SIDE | DN<70.85 |
| USD/CHF | 0.9860/0.9715 | 1.00/1.10130 | UP | SIDE <0.9850 |
Technicals: Spot closed above 20,50 and 200 day moving averages but still below 100 day major moving average. 20 day moving average is at 71.29. 50 day moving average is at 70.80. 200 day moving average is at 70.10. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying bottom at 69.20. Important support zone is at 71 and later at 70.85. Spot closed below its average level of the day.
Intra day supports and resistances for Feb contract are:
PP: 71.32,S1:71.19, S2:71.08, R1:71.43, R2:71.56.
Hedging strategy for USD/INR: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is below 200 day moving average. Next Major resistance is at 1.1520 and later at 1.1570. Major support is at 1.1265/1.12. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying an important top at 1.1520. Weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.1215.
GBP/USD: The pair is bullish and trading between major moving averages.Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.3220 and weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.2440. Important resistance is at 1.3220. Important support is at 1.29 and later at 1.28.
USD/YEN: The pair is below major moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 105. Next important resistance is at 111/112.
