FX MORNING UPDATE

                                                                                       

USDINR opened higher at 71.70 and the pair traded in the 71.56-71.80 range. Spot USDINR closed at 71.57, loss of 24 ps for USD as against prior close of 71.81. RBI reference rate was fixed at 71.75. Feb USD/INR closed at 71.75, loss of 26 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 72.01. Feb Euro/INR closed at 82.05, GBP/INR at 93.40 and Yen/INR at 65.36. Rupee has declined 2 Rupees since its recent level of 69.20 traded on 7 th Jan.

Rupee wobbled and closed lower on fears over fiscal deficit estimate and climbing crude prices.

FII’S have sold Rs 504 Cr of Indian Equities in Jan. FII’S have sold Rs 2601 Cr of Indian debt securities in Jan  .

Benchmark Nifty climbed 0.20% y’day. DOW climbed 172 points (0.68%) y’day. Nikkei declined 0.19% and Hang seng climbed 0.21%. y’day.

Euro is now at 1.1400, Pound at 1.2951,Yen at 109.78.    

Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1318 and WT1Crude at USD 53.73 /Brent at USD 62.04.

Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 2.72% and 3 m libor closed at 2.90%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.38%.        

Economic news: RBI Credit policy is scheduled for Feb 7 th. RBI is now expected to move towards neutral position from calibrated tightening.

 Data highlights : – US ISM(non mfrg) declined marginally to 56.7.

-EU PMI(services) climbed to 51.2.

-UK PMI(services) dipped to 50.1.               

 

 

Wednesday’s calendar: – US trade balance

-German factory orders.

USD/INR   71.80 71.56
EUR/USD 1.1400 1.1441 1.1400
GBP/USD 1.2951 1.3056 1.2926
USD/JPY 109.78 110.04 109.79

Daily Support/Resistance table

CurrencyPairs Pivot R1 R2 R3 S1 S2 S3
EURO/USD 1.1417 1.1434 1.1458 1.1475 1.1393 1.1376 1.1352
GBP/USD 1.2980 1.3034 1.3110 1.3164 1.2904 1.2850 1.2773
USD/JPY 109.92

 

110.05 110.18 110.31

 

109.80 109.66 109.54

 

USD/INR 71.64 71.72 71.88   71.48 71.40

 

 

MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE

Curency Pair Supports Resistances Trend Remarks
EURO/USD 1.1285/1.1215 1.1575 SIDE UP>1.1575
GBP/USD 1.29/1.28 1.33 UP DN<1.28
USD/JPY 105 111/112 SIDE UP>112
USD/INR 70.50/70.10 71.55/71.90/72.50 SIDE DN<70.85
USD/CHF 0.9715 1.00/1.10130 UP  SIDE <0.9850

Technicals: Spot closed above 20,50 and 200 day moving averages but still below 100 day major moving average. 20 day moving average is at 71.10. 50 day moving average is at 70.74. 200 day moving average is at 70. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying bottom at 69.20. Important support zone is at 71.50 and later at 71.10. Spot closed below its average level of the day.  

Intra day supports and resistances for Feb contract are:

PP: 71.87,S1:71.59, S2:71.45, R1:72.02, R2:72.29.                                                          

Hedging strategy for USD/INR: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.

CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:

EURO/USD: The pair is below 200 day moving average. Next Major resistance is at 1.1570 and later at 1.17. Major support is at 1.1265/1.12. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying an important bottom at 1.1285. Weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.1215.

GBP/USD: The pair is bullish and above all moving averages.Daily MACD  is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.2440 and weekly MACD is  in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.2440. Important resistance is at 1.33. Important support is at 1.29 and later at 1.28.

USD/YEN: The pair is below major moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 105. Next important resistance is at 111/112.

 

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