FX MORNING UPDATE 

30/01/2019

                                                                              

USDINR opened at 71.14 Y’day and the pair traded in the 71.02-71.21 range. Spot USDINR closed at 71.11, unchanged for USD as against prior close of 71.11. RBI reference rate was fixed at 71.09. Feb USD/INR closed at 71.33, unchanged for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 71.33. Feb Euro/INR closed at 81.75, GBP/INR at 93.86 and Yen/INR at 65.30. Rupee has declined 2 Rupees since its recent level of 69.20 traded on 7 th Jan. USDINR is staying within a range in the last few sessions, awaiting US Fed decision and Union budget proposals.

FII’S have sold Rs 3875 Cr of Indian Equities in Jan till date . FII’S have sold Rs 2244 Cr of Indian debt securities in Jan till date .

Benchmark Nifty closed flat y’day. DOW declined 52 points (0.21%) y’day. Nikkei climbed 0.08% and Hang seng declined 0.16% y’day.

Euro is now at 1.1440, Pound at 1.3094,Yen at 109.28.    

Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1312 and WT1Crude at USD 53.20 /Brent at USD 61.10.

Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 2.712% and 3 m libor closed at 2.90%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.32%.        

Economic news: Union budget is keenly awaited. Fiscal deficit, tax reliefs and farm sector measures are in focus. Markets await US FOMC decision on Wednesday night and nonfarm payrolls release on Friday. US-China trade talks are underway to avert new and punitive US tariffs ahead of March 2 nd deadline.

Data highlights : US house price index climbed 4.7% y/y and consumer confidence dipped to 120.2.

Wednesday’s calendar: – US pending home sales, ADP employment report

-EU GDP, German Gfk consumer sentiment.                                  

           

USD/INR   71.21 71.02
EUR/USD 1.1440 1.1451 1.1411
GBP/USD 1.3094 1.3199 1.3058
USD/JPY 109.28 109.54 109.14

Daily Support/Resistance table

CurrencyPairs Pivot R1 R2 R3 S1 S2 S3
EURO/USD 1.1432 1.1453 1.1471 1.1492 1.1413 1.1393 1.1374
GBP/USD 1.3113 1.3168 1.3254 1.3309 1.3027 1.2972 1.2886
USD/JPY 109.37

 

109.60 109.77 110.01

 

109.20 108.97 108.80

 

USD/INR 71.11 71.20 71.30   71.01 70.92

 

 

MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE

Curency Pair Supports Resistances Trend Remarks
EURO/USD 1.1270/1.1215 1.1575 SIDE UP>1.1575
GBP/USD 1.29/1.28 1.33 UP DN<1.28
USD/JPY 105 111/112 SIDE UP>112
USD/INR 70.50/70.10 71.70/71.90/72.50 SIDE DN<70.10
USD/CHF 0.9715 1.0130 UP  SIDE <0.9850

Technicals: Spot closed above 20,50 and 200 day moving averages but still below 100 day major moving average. 20 day moving average is at 70.76. 50 day moving average is at 70.75. 200 day moving average is at 69.60. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying bottom at 69.20. Important support zone is at 70.50 and later at 70.10. Spot closed at its average level of the day.  

Intra day supports and resistances for Jan contract are:

PP: 71.08,S1:70.94, S2:70.78, R1:71.24, R2:71.38                                                          

Hedging strategy for USD/INR: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.

CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:

EURO/USD: The pair is below 200 day moving average. Next Major resistance is at 1.1570 and later at 1.17. Major support is at 1.1265/1.12. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying an important top at 1.1572. Weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.1215.

GBP/USD: The pair is bullish and above all moving averages.Daily MACD  is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.2440 and weekly MACD is  in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.2440. Important resistance is at 1.33. Important support is at 1.29 and later at 1.28.

USD/YEN: The pair is below major moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 105. Next important resistance is at 111/112.

Leave a reply:

Your email address will not be published.

Site Footer

© 2018 GOODWILL - ALL RIGHTS RESERVED