FX – MORNING UPDATE :
USDINR opened at 83.15 on Friday and the pair traded in the 82.92-83.18 range. Spot USDINR closed at 82.98, loss of 24 ps for USD as against prior close of 83.22. RBI sold USD to stem Rupee decline.
RBI reference rate was fixed at 83.16 on 08/09. Sep USD/INR closed at 83.07, loss of 17 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 83.24. Sep Euro/INR closed at 89., GBP/INR at 103.65 and Yen/INR at 56.55. 1 year USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 1.70% p.a. FX reserves stood at USD 598 bn as on Sept 1 st.
|
PAIRS |
RBI REF RATE (08/09) |
|
USDINR |
83.16 |
|
EURINR |
89.15 |
|
GBPINR |
103.93 |
|
JPYINR |
56.50 |
In Sep, FPI’S have sold Rs 5460 Cr of Equities and bought Rs 473 Cr of debt . In 2022-23 fiscal year, FII’S have net sold Rs 27593 Cr of Equities and have net bought Rs 838 Cr of debt.
Benchmark Nifty climbed 93 points (0.47%) on Friday. US S&P climbed 6 points (0.14%) . Nikkei declined 1.21% and Hang Seng declined 1.34%.
Euro is now at 1.07, Pound at 1.2464, Yen at 147.81.
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1942 and WT1Crude at USD 87/Brent at USD 90.45.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 4.26% and 3 m libor closed at 5.65%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.19%.
Economic news: RBI sold USD to stem Rupee decline.
German economic research institute, DIW, is projecting a -0.4% dip in the nation’s economic output for the year. This downturn is primarily attributed to sluggish domestic consumption and a falter in export dynamics, exacerbated by a slowed Chinese economy.
Data highlights: – No major data release
Monday’s calendar : No major economic release.
|
USD/INR |
|
83.18 |
82.92 |
|
|
EUR/USD |
1.0700 |
1.0745 |
1.0694 |
|
|
GBP/USD |
1.2464 |
1.2515 |
1.2450 |
|
|
USD/JPY |
147.81 |
147.88 |
146.59 |
Daily Support/Resistance table
|
Currency Pairs |
Pivot |
R1 |
R2 |
R3 |
S1 |
S2 |
S3 |
|
EURO/USD |
1.0713 |
1.0732 |
1.0764 |
|
1.0681 |
1.0062 |
|
|
GBP/USD |
1.2476 |
1.2502 |
1.2541 |
|
1.2437 |
1.2411 |
|
|
USD/JPY |
147.42 |
148.26 |
148.71 |
|
146.96 |
146.13 |
|
|
USD/INR |
83.02 |
83.13 |
83.28 |
|
82.86 |
82.76 |
|
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
|
Currency Pair |
Supports |
Resistances |
Trend |
Remarks |
|
EURO/USD |
1.0635 |
1.0945/1.1065 |
DN |
UP>1.1070 |
|
GBP/USD |
1.2450/1.2350 |
1.28/1.30/1.3150 |
DN |
UP>1.2820 |
|
USD/JPY |
144.50/142 |
151 |
UP |
SIDE<143.90 |
|
USD/INR |
82.93/82.86/82.78 |
83.35/83.47/83.68 |
UP |
SIDE<82.78 |
|
USD/CHF |
0.87/0.8550 |
0.8820 |
DN |
SIDE>0.8820 |
Technicals: Spot closed above 50 and 200 day moving averages.20 day moving average is at 82.86. 50 day moving average is at 82.51.200 day moving average is at 82.31. Daily MACD is in buy zone. Important support is at 82.93/82.86/82.78 and important resistance is at 83.35. Spot closed below the average level of the day.
Intraday supports and resistances for Sep contract are:
PP: 83.08, S1:82.94, S2:82.81, R1:83.21, R2:83.35.
Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
However on directional basis, suggest the following:
USD exports be hedged at 83.30/83.50. Imports be hedged at 82.80 for 1 month.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is below major moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.0945/1.1065/1.1140/1.1275.
GBP/USD: The pair is still above 200 day moving averages, but below 50 and 100 day averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.3145 and weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.3145. Important support is at 1.2450/1.2350. Important resistance is at 1.2820/1.30/1.3145.
USD/YEN: The pair is above 50 and 200 day major averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 137.35. Important resistance is at 151 and support is at 144/142.