• By Goodwill
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  • June 10, 2024

FX – MORNING UPDATE :

USDINR opened at 83.48 on Friday and the pair traded in the 83.47-83.50 range. Spot USDINR closed at 83.49, loss of 4 ps for USD as against prior close of 83.53.

RBI reference rate was fixed at 83.42 on 07/06June USD/INR closed at 83.45, loss of 8 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 83.53. June Euro/INR closed at 90.90, GBP/INR at 106.65 and Yen/INR at 53.58. 1 year USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 1.60% p.a.  FX reserves stood at USD 651 bn, as on May 31 st. Reserves climbed by USD 4.8 bn w/w.

PAIRS

RBI REF RATE (07/06)

USDINR

83.42

EURINR

90.84

GBPINR

106.66

JPYINR

53.72

In May till date, FPI’S have sold Rs 16971 Cr of Equities and bought Rs 4669 Cr of debt . In FY 23-24, FII’S have net bought Rs 206279 Cr of Equities and have net bought Rs 123120 Cr of debt.

Benchmark Nifty climbed 468 points (2.05%) on Friday. US S&P declined 6 points (0.11%). Nikkei is up 0.49% and Hang Seng is down 0.59%..

Euro is now at 1.0768, Pound at 1.2721, Yen at 156.98.

Commodities: Gold is now at USD 2292 and WT1Crude at USD 76/Brent at USD 80.

Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 4.45% and 3 m libor closed at 5.59%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.02%.

Economic news: US non-farm payroll employment grew 272k in May, well above expectation of 180k. That’s also higher than the average monthly gain of 232k over the prior 12 months.Unemployment rate ticked up from 3.9% to 4.0%, above expectation of 3.9%. Labor force participation rate fell from 62.7% to 62.5%.Average hourly earnings rose 0.4% mom, above expectation of 0.3% mom. Over the 12 months period, average hourly earnings rose 4.1% yoy.

US CPI and Fed meeting are key focus events for the week.

USD gained after a strong US employment data.

Data highlights: – EU sentix investor confidence.

Monday’s calendar : –

USD/INR

 

 

 83.50

83.47

EUR/USD

1.0768

 

1.0903

1.0799

GBP/USD

1.2721

 

1.2813

1.2715

USD/JPY

156.98

 

157.09

155.12

Daily Support/Resistance table

Currency Pairs

Pivot

R1

R2

R3

S1

S2

S3

EURO/USD

1.0823

1.0847

1.0927

 

1.0743

1.0719

 

GBP/USD

1.2749

1.2784

1.2847

 

1.2685

1.2651

 

USD/JPY

156.39

157.67

158.36

 

155.69

154.42

 

USD/INR

83.48

83.50

83.51

 

83.46

83.45

 

MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE

Currency Pair

Supports

Resistances

Trend

Remarks

EURO/USD

1.0735

1.09

DN

UP>1.09

GBP/USD

1.2635/1.2575/1.2535

1.2825

UP

DN<1.2535

USD/JPY

154.50

157.80/160

UP

SIDE<154.50

USD/INR

82.95/82.85

83.52/83.70

SIDE

UP>83.55

USD/CHF

0.8885

0.9150/0.9295

UP

SIDE<0.90

Technicals: Spot closed above 50 and 200 day moving averages.20 day moving average is at 83.38. 50 day moving average is at 83.37. 200 day moving average is at 83.17. Daily MACD is in buy zone. Important support is at 83.05/82.95 and important resistance is at 83.55/83.70. Spot closed above the average level of the day.

Intraday supports and resistances for June contract are:

PP: 83.46, S1:83.40, S2:83.35, R1:83.51, R2:83.57.             

Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.

However on directional basis, suggest the following:

USD exports be hedged at 83.55+.

CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:

EURO/USD: The pair is below major moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.09. Next major support is at 1.0735. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying an important top at 1.09. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.1140.

GBP/USD: The pair is above major moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.2825 and weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.2895. Important support is at 1.2535. Important resistance is at 1.2825.

USD/YEN: The pair is above major moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 157.75. Important resistance is at 157.80/ 160 and support is at 154.50.

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